Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have delivered some benchmark smashing gains over the past year.

On Monday afternoon, Woodside shares were trading for $31.96 apiece. This sees the Woodside share price up 36.5% in 12 months, compared to the 1.9% one-year losses posted by the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

Atop those capital gains, Woodside also paid $1.631 a share in fully franked dividends over the year. The ASX 200 oil and gas stock trades on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 5.1%.

And BHP shares have performed even better.

On Monday, shares in Australia’s biggest miner – and the biggest stock on the ASX – were changing hands for $60.41 each, up 44.1% in 12 months.

BHP also paid two fully franked dividends over this time, totalling $2.419 per share. BHP stock trades on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 4.0%.

And looking ahead, Fairmont Equities’ Michael Gable forecasts more outperformance to come from both ASX 200 titans (courtesy of The Bull).

Here’s why.

Should I buy BHP shares today?

“I believe commodities markets are in the early stages of a bull run, leaving BHP’s share price in a prime position to move higher,” Gable said.

Among the reasons Gable issued a buy recommendation for BHP shares is the miner’s fast-growing exposure to copper. The price of the red metal has surged over the last year amid strong demand growth spurred by the global energy transition and a huge new pipeline of AI enabled data centre construction.

Gable noted:

Copper now generates most of BHP’s earnings after it produced almost 2 million tonnes in full year 2026. The company should also benefit from constrained global supplies of copper. Iron ore is also a significant contributor to full year earnings.

The company posted an attributable profit of $US9.8 billion in full year 2026, up 9 per cent on the prior corresponding period. We view any share price dips as a buying opportunity.

Woodside shares tapping into energy crisis

Atop his bullish outlook on BHP shares, Gable also issued a buy recommendation on Woodside shares.

“We turned bullish on crude oil prior to the war in Iran due to a looming imbalance between supply and demand,” he said. “The war has interrupted supplies, which has led to higher prices.”

Summarising his buy advice, Gable concluded:

I believe crude oil prices are likely to move higher in the absence of a peaceful and sustained resolution in the Middle East. I acknowledge some investors doubt crude oil prices will move higher.

However, as the largest energy stock on the ASX, buying support should continue to grow for WDS.

The post Expert names Woodside and BHP shares as top buys today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Should I buy BHP shares in October?
• Buy, hold, sell: Xero, South32, Woodside shares
• Buy, hold, sell: CBA, BHP, CSL shares
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Woodside vs Westpac: Which ASX share is better for passive income?

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

On Monday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) started the week with a small gain. The benchmark index rose 0.15% to 8,679.7 points.

Will the market be able to build on this on Tuesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to edge higher

The Australian share market looks set to edge higher on Tuesday despite a poor night in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 6 points higher. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones fell 0.65%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.75%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 0.9%.

RBA meeting

The Reserve Bank of Australia is meeting on Tuesday and is largely expected to increase the cash rate. According to the latest ASX 30 day interbank cash rate futures contract, the market is pricing in a 90% probability of an interest rate increase to 4.60% at today’s meeting. Futures contracts are also predicting a rise to 5% by the middle of next year.

Oil prices rise

ASX 200 energy shares including Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a decent session on Tuesday after oil prices rose overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 0.95% to US$93.29 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 1.8% to US$106.18 a barrel. This was despite reports that Saudi Arabia’s pipeline is ramping back up.

Buy Minerals 260 shares

Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6) shares have risen 250% in just 12 months. The good news is that Bell Potter believes the run can continue. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on the gold developer’s shares with an improved price target of $1.45. It said: “MI6 offers gold exposure via the 6.2Moz BGP, valuation uplift through discovery success, project advancement and de-risking as the BGP progresses towards production. MI6 is now largely funded to develop the BGP and on track to complete a DFS and make a FID in early CY27, plus secure long-lead items and commence early site works.”

Gold price sinks

ASX 200 gold shares such as Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) and Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM) could have a poor session after the gold price sank overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 4% to US$4,148.5 an ounce. This appears to have been driven by a rise in US treasury yields to multi-year highs.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 ASX shares tipped to return 38% to 60%
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• ASX 200 rallies from June lows. Is the worst over?
• Santos vs Viva Energy: Which ASX energy stock gets my vote today?
• 2 ASX 200 shares just upgraded to buy ratings

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) share price has started the week strongly.

The gold miner rose 6.5% to $23.55 on Monday following news of a rejected takeover approach from Gold Fields.

But putting that excitement to one side, does the Northern Star share price look cheap based on what the business could earn over the next few years?

I think it does.

The valuation gets cheaper

On FY27 numbers alone, I would describe Northern Star as reasonably priced rather than obviously cheap.

Consensus forecasts point to earnings per share (EPS) of $1.35 in FY27. At $24.02, that puts the shares on a forward PE ratio of around 18 times.

That is not demanding, but it is what comes next that really catches my attention.

Northern Star’s EPS is expected to jump to $2.41 in FY28 and then $3.30 in FY29.

If those forecasts prove accurate, today’s share price represents less than 10 times FY28 earnings and only around 7 times FY29 earnings.

For a major gold producer, I think those multiples look cheap.

The dividend outlook also improves alongside earnings. Consensus estimates point to dividends per share of 51.6 cents in FY27, 73 cents in FY28, and 86.2 cents in FY29.

At the current Northern Star share price, that would see the dividend yield rise from a little over 2% in FY27 to around 3.6% by FY29.

Gold will decide how cheap Northern Star really is

There is an obvious catch.

Gold miners do not control the price of what they sell, so those earnings forecasts will depend heavily on where gold trades over the next few years.

Right now, gold is around US$4,268 an ounce.

A note out of Bell Potter shows that it is forecasting US$4,875 an ounce in 2027 and US$4,900 in 2028, before easing to US$4,607 in 2029.

If gold remains around those elevated levels, it is easier to see how Northern Star could generate the sharp earnings growth analysts currently expect.

But the reverse is also true.

A material fall in the gold price, potentially driven by higher interest rates or changing investor demand, could pull earnings estimates lower and make today’s apparently cheap forward multiples much less meaningful.

That is why I would not look at the 7 times FY29 PE ratio in isolation. It is attractive, but there is more uncertainty attached to it than there would be for a business with greater control over its selling prices.

Foolish takeaway

For investors looking for gold exposure, I think the Northern Star share price looks like a cheap buy at around $23.

There is plenty riding on the gold price, so I would expect the investment case to move with it. But with Northern Star potentially earning more than $3 per share by FY29, I think the current price justifies taking that commodity risk.

The post Is the Northern Star share price a cheap buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Northern Star shares on watch after major takeover approach rejected
• Northern Star Resources rejects $38.7bn Gold Fields takeover offer
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Northern Star vs BHP: Which ASX share is better for passive income?

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Northern Star Resources. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.