The big four banks are popular options for many Australian investors. But are Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares worth buying this week?

To find out, let’s take a look at what analysts are saying about these two big four bank shares courtesy of The Bull. Here’s what you need to know about them:

CBA shares

Red Leaf Securities has named Australia’s largest bank as a hold this week.

It highlights that CBA is the highest quality franchise in Australian banking and has resilient earnings.

However, with its growth moderating and mortgage competition intensifying, Red Leaf Securities has concerns. This is especially the case given the significant premium that CBA shares trade on compared to both local and international peers.

Commenting on its hold rating, Red Leaf Securities said:

CBA remains the highest quality franchise in Australian banking, supported by its dominant deposit base, strong digital ecosystem and industry leading profitability. Earnings remain resilient, but growth is moderating as mortgage competition intensifies and credit expansion normalises.

Credit quality is stable and dividends remain highly reliable, reinforcing its defensive appeal. However, the key issue is valuation, with the stock trading at a significant premium to domestic and global peers. Much of the quality and stability is already priced in, leaving limited upside without a material macro or earnings surprise to the upside.

NAB shares

The team at Catapult Wealth isn’t feeling upbeat on the investment opportunity with NAB shares.

With NAB recently delivering a disappointing half-year result for FY 2026 and Federal Budget policies potentially weighing on loan and property price growth, Catapult Wealth thinks that NAB could struggle to deliver on the market’s expectations in the near term.

As a result, the financial services company has named NAB as a sell this week.

Commenting on the big four bank, Catapult Wealth said:

The bank’s first half result in fiscal year 2026 was underwhelming, in our view. Investment loans account for about a third of residential lending. Proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax are likely to reduce loan and property price growth, in our view. Given higher interest rates and affordability pressures, NAB may struggle to deliver the growth needed to support current expectations.

The post Should you buy CBA and NAB shares this week? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Brokers rate these 5 ASX 200 shares as a sell!
• Buy, hold, sell: Origin Energy, Megaport, NAB shares
• 3 ASX 200 shares to sell this week according to experts
• Buy, hold, sell: Wesfarmers, Saluda Medical, CBA shares
• Top 10 ASX shares bought and sold by investors in May

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) endured another lacklustre session this Tuesday. After starting the week on a negative note yesterday, investors didn’t exactly come back to the markets with a renewed sense of optimism today.

The ASX 200 spent the entire session in red territory, and ended up closing with a 0.057% loss. That drags the index down to 8,724.4 points.

This rather uninspiring Tuesday session for the local markets comes after a more positive start to the American trading week up on the US markets last night.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) had a wild ride, but managed to pull off a win, gaining 0.091%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) was a little more decisive, rising 0.42%.

But let’s return to the ASX boards now and take stock of what the different ASX sectors were up to amid today’s challenging trading conditions.

Winners and losers

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Which tech share is the ‘most defensively positioned software business’ on the ASX?
• Why’s the ASX 200 falling today despite another tech rally?
• Why has the gold price fallen 17% since the Iran war began?
• WiseTech, Cochlear, CSL shares: Can these beaten down stocks rebound in 2026?
• Northern Star shares just rocketed 12%. Is a takeover battle brewing?

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Life360, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Life360, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CAR Group Ltd, Pro Medicus, and Srg Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares have slumped lower in Tuesday afternoon trade. At the time of writing, the supermarket giant’s shares are down around 2% to $34.30 a piece.

It’s been a rocky road for Woolworths shares this year, with its value swinging anywhere between $28.84 and a multi-year high of $38.15. After today’s decline, the shares are now around 17% higher year to date and 7% higher than 12 months ago.

A key catalyst was the company’s third-quarter sales update in early May. For the 13 weeks to the 5th of April, Woolworths reported total sales of $18.1 billion, up 4.5% from Q3 in FY25. Its Australian Food sales were up 5.9% year on year to $13.8 billion. 

The company said that underlying trading momentum remained solid, but management noted they have seen “some signs of increased customer caution”.

Investors were spooked and quickly offloaded their shares.

Analysts are mostly neutral on the outlook for Woolworths shares. 

TradingView data shows that 11 of 18 analysts have a hold rating on Woolworths shares, another 6 have a buy or strong buy rating, and 1 has a sell rating.

The average target price is $34.94, which implies a 2% upside at the time of writing.

But some more bullish analysts think there is still potential for the supermarket’s shares to return to the multi-year highs seen earlier this year. The $39 maximum target price implies a potential 14% upside over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.

While the outlook for Woolworths shares may seem unclear, there are reasons investors should consider adding them to their portfolios.

Are Woolworths shares a good buy for passive income?

Supermarkets are inherently defensive stocks. Even if confidence and customer sentiment fall, inflation keeps rising, and purse strings get even tighter, Australians still need to buy groceries. 

The main benefit of Woolworths is its scale. This gives the company strong buying power, an extensive supply chain, and the ability to invest in efficiency over time.

Combined with its defensive nature, Woolworths can generate a relatively stable cash flow regardless of economic conditions. And this means it can continue to pay its shareholders.

How much passive income does the supermarket giant pay its shareholders?

Woolworths typically pays its investors twice-yearly dividends: an interim dividend in April and a final dividend in October.

Woolworths’ latest dividend payment in April was 45 cents per security, fully franked.

CommSec’s consensus estimates suggest Woolworths could pay a total dividend per share of 99.5 cents in FY26. Based on the current share price of $34.30, that would yield around 2.9%.

The supermarket giant is then forecast to pay shareholders $1.13 in FY27, and $1.28 in FY28.

The post Are Woolworths shares a good buy for passive income? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why’s the ASX 200 falling today despite another tech rally?
• Here’s how Coles and Woolworths shares stacked up in May
• 6 ASX 200 shares just upgraded by the experts
• 2 ASX dividend shares I’d buy for reliable passive income
• 3 reasons to buy Woolworths shares at $34

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Fears over how artificial intelligence (AI) may impact software businesses contributed to a 48% rout for ASX tech shares between 29 August last year and 30 March this year.

James Gerrish from Shaw and Partners reckons software stocks have now bottomed, and several are well-placed for a rebound in 1H FY27.

In a newsletter, Gerrish told investors his Market Matters team was buying one particular stock today for their Active Growth Portfolio.

Which ASX tech share?

Following a 30% share price decline over 12 months, Gerrish and his team are buying Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME) shares.

Pro Medicus designs and distributes medical imaging software and services to healthcare providers around the world.

Now, a technical note.

Pro Medicus is actually classified as an ASX healthcare share.

But its business is all about high tech.

That’s why it’s among the top 10 stocks in the S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX), the benchmark for Australian technology companies.

400% share price rise

Pro Medicus became an ASX darling between 2023 and 2025 when its share price rocketed 400% on the back of many contract wins.

The Pro Medicus share price reached a record $336 per share on 17 July 2025.

Then came the correction, which sent the tech company tumbling to a two-year low of $107.75 on 24 February.

Today, Pro Medicus shares are trading at $157.46, up 9% on yesterday’s close of $144.46.

Today’s surge follows a new contract win announced yesterday.

For 1H FY26, Pro Medicus reported a 28% lift in revenue and a 30% increase in underlying net profit after tax (NPAT).

Gerrish said Pro Medicus had continued to execute exceptionally well while the share price reset itself.

Importantly, the recent pullback has been driven far more by multiple compression than any deterioration in the company’s fundamentals.

In our view, PME remains the highest-quality and arguably most defensively positioned software business on the ASX.

How is Pro Medicus ‘defensively positioned’ against AI?

For starters, the company’s Visage 7 medical imaging platform is already deeply embedded across leading US hospital networks.

Gerrish said:

This is not discretionary software that can be easily switched off or replaced.

PME continues to maintain an exceptional customer retention record, while also winning major contracts against much larger competitors — a strong endorsement of the quality of its technology and the value it delivers to customers.

While AI disruption is a legitimate concern for investors in ASX tech shares, Gerrish reckons Pro Medicus will benefit from AI.

… we think Pro Medicus is one of the few names where AI is more likely to enhance the moat than erode it.

Rather than replacing Visage, AI can make the platform more valuable by improving radiology workflows, accelerating image analysis, supporting detection tools and automating parts of the reporting process.

Management has been actively embedding AI capabilities into Visage, including advanced breast cancer screening applications and its RadPath Hub, which integrates radiology and pathology data to support more sophisticated clinical decision-making.

ASX tech shares rebounding

The ASX tech sector turned a corner on 31 March after a 48% decline over seven months.

Since then, Pro Medicus shares have risen 38%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ), up 29%.

Gerrish says Pro Medicus shares look “exceptionally well placed” in a market beginning to rotate back to quality software providers.

Investors often pay up for genuine scarcity, and PME offers exactly that: world-class technology, recurring revenue, strong margins, global growth potential and a product that is becoming more important, not less, as healthcare systems digitise.

The expert acknowledges that Pro Medicus shares still trade on a premium multiple, so valuation and execution remain risks.

PME still trades on a premium multiple, leaving less room for disappointment, while US hospital budget cycles and the timing of large contract wins can create volatility.

However, with only a modest share of the US imaging market, a mission-critical product, a long runway for new contract wins and clear leverage to AI-enabled healthcare digitisation, we think Pro Medicus remains one of the best-positioned structural growth stories on the ASX.

The post Which tech share is the ‘most defensively positioned software business’ on the ASX? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why DroneShield, Pro Medicus, SRG Global, and Woodside shares are charging higher today
• Is June set to be the month of the ASX healthcare rebound?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why 4DMedical, IperionX, Pro Medicus, and Ventia shaares are storming higher today
• Why are Pro Medicus shares rocketing 12% today?

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) shares have fallen into the red again on Tuesday.

After a brief rebound, Zip shares have now fallen around 3% at the time of writing to $2.36 each. 

Zip shares have been volatile ever since the stock was caught up in an ongoing sector-wide tech sell-off. Technology and growth shares have also come under renewed pressure again recently as investors reassess valuations and risk appetite. The ASX 200 tech shares continued softening through May as investor sentiment struggled to rebound.

As for today’s share price decline. It looks likely that investors are taking their gains off the table after Zip shares rallied around 10% to a two-week high yesterday. 

At the time of writing, the buy now, pay later (BNPL) provider’s shares are down 29% year to date but are still around 22% higher than this time last year. 

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is around 0.4% lower on Tuesday afternoon, and just over 3% higher over the year.

Zip shares might be struggling to regain momentum, but I still think there are compelling reasons for investors to buy the stock. Here are three of them.

1. Zip’s financial results have been positive

Zip’s financial results have been robust over the past few quarters. Its latest third-quarter FY26 results announcement in mid-April showed that growth has started to accelerate.

Zip reported a 22.4% year-on-year increase in its total translation volume (TTV). The company also confirmed a 20.2% increase in total income, a higher operating margin of 19.4%, and confirmed it has grown its active customer base by another 3.5%.

The fintech business also upgraded its FY26 group cash EBTDA guidance to at least $260 million, from previous guidance of around $248.6 million.

2. The company is aggressively expanding

Aside from financial growth, Zip is also rapidly expanding its product range and aggressively expanding its global presence, especially in the US. 

Late last year, the company announced that its US segment was expanding its partnership with the programmable financial services business Stripe, a move that caused some investor panic at the time. 

In early February, the company confirmed it is expanding its US presence by launching a new Pay in 2 product. The new product allows consumers to split a purchase into two instalments paid over two weeks.

Zip is also pursuing a dual sharemarket listing on the Nasdaq in the US. This could help drive an even opportunity for business expansion in the area.

3. Brokers tip a huge upside ahead for Zip shares

TradingView data shows that analysts are very bullish on Zip’s outlook over the next 12 months.

All 12 analysts have a buy consensus on the shares, and the average $3.82 target price implies a potential 62% upside.

Some are even more optimistic and tip the shares to increase up to 129% to $5.40 a piece, at the time of writing.

The post 3 reasons to buy Zip shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Here are the 10 most shorted ASX shares
• 4 ASX 200 shares I’d buy with $5,000 in June
• 3 key reasons to buy Zip Co shares now
• 3 quality ASX stocks I’d buy under $5 a share

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Peter Warren Automotive Holdings Ltd (ASX: PWR) are trading not far off their 12-month lows at the moment, which the analyst team at Jarden says offers an opportunity to buy in.

Small-cap ASX shares looking cheap

The Jarden team has significantly reduced its share price target on the company, from $2.50 to $1.55, but this is still well above the current share price of 76 cents.

This follows Peter Warren earlier this week issuing a downbeat trading update.

The company said:

Following a significant deterioration in trading conditions over recent weeks, and with the outlook for May and June – which typically represent a large proportion of the Company’s annual result – subdued, Peter Warren expects underlying profit before tax (PBT) for FY26 to be in the range of $12m to $15m. This substantial reduction, following a solid first half growth, predominantly reflects intense pressure on new car trading margins.

This was caused by a rapid shift in customer demand, the dealership said, with “new car buyers … favouring smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles and fewer high margin vehicles often purchased with accessories”.

There were also more new brands competing for market share, and the high demand for some models had led to a backlog of orders, the company said.

Worst not yet over for small cap ASX share

The Jarden research note on Peter Warren said there could be more pain to come.

As the analyst team said:

Feedback continues to suggest that, at a headline level, new car demand has remained relatively resilient (obviously mix has changed under the surface). However, with broad expectations of house price declines to come, we note new car sales historically have not performed well in this environment. The 2017-2019 cycle of national house price declines of over -8% coincided with new car sales declining of -11% over the same period (peak to trough annual). Combined with a shift away from higher priced, higher margin ICE vehicles and a more promotional price environment (and more finance promotions), we have taken a conservative stance on FY27 earnings.

The Jarden team noted that Peter Warren owns land and buildings worth more than the company’s entire market capitalisation.

They added that they believed that the company’s particular brand mix had played a significant part in the profit downgrade.

They added more broadly on the sector:

Commentary points to several broader potential headwinds worth watching for the industry, including new vehicle competition and associated gross margin compression (particularly in the ICE side of the market), OEM finance promotional activity, and continued shortages of supply of in-demand NEV (new energy vehicle) models.

Peter Warren is valued at $129.2 million.

The post Looking for a 100% gain? One broker says try this small-cap ASX car dealer appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Are Woolworths shares a good buy for passive income?
• Which tech share is the ‘most defensively positioned software business’ on the ASX?
• 3 reasons to buy Zip shares today
• Why’s the ASX 200 falling today despite another tech rally?
• Brokers rate these 5 ASX 200 shares as a sell!

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It has been a mixed Tuesday session for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), with strength in tech shares not enough to keep the broader market in positive territory.

At the time of writing, the ASX 200 is down 0.49% to 8,686 points.

The index has moved between early weakness and selective buying, showing that the market is still struggling for direction.

The result is a choppy session where a few strong pockets are being offset by wider weakness across the market.

Let’s take a closer look at what is moving the ASX 200 today.

Retail stocks feel the wage pressure

Retail stocks are under pressure today after the Fair Work Commission handed down its latest wage decision.

Minimum award wages will increase by 4.75% from 1 July, while the national minimum wage will rise to $26.44 an hour, or $1,004.90 a week.

The decision affects around 2.8 million workers, so it is good news for Australians dealing with higher living costs.

The share market, however, is focused on what the wage rise means for company costs.

Retailers are already dealing with cautious shoppers and rising costs, so today’s wage decision adds another cost for investors to factor in.

Businesses with large store networks and distribution teams are the ones most exposed, because even small cost increases can become significant across the group.

That concern appears to be weighing on several consumer stocks today.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares are down 1.6% to $34.50, while Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares have slipped 0.7% to $21.55.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) is also weaker, with its shares down 1% to $78.89. JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) has fallen 4% to $72.09, while Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN) is also down 1% to $4.54.

Economic data adds another concern

There is also some caution around the broader economy after the latest trade numbers.

ABS data showed Australia recorded a seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit of $1.84 billion in March.

It was the first monthly goods trade deficit since December 2017.

Imports jumped 14.1%, helped by a surge in data processing equipment, while exports fell 2.7%.

The Australian reported that Australia’s broader net trade position is expected to weigh on March quarter GDP, with imports of data centre equipment playing a major role.

At the same time, today’s wage decision has kept inflation and interest rates in focus.

Reuters reported some economists expect the wage rise could add inflation pressure, giving the RBA another issue to weigh closely.

Tech keeps the market from looking worse

Tech shares are helping limit the damage today, even though the broader ASX 200 is still trading lower.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) shares are up 6.25% to $86.01, while WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares are 5.98% higher at $41.49.

Those gains are helping offset some of the weakness elsewhere across the market.

The buying follows another strong session for AI-linked stocks in the US, where Nvidia shares rose after unveiling its latest AI-focused products.

That has flowed through to parts of the local tech sector, even though the wider market is still struggling.

The S&P/ASX 200 Resources Index (ASX: XJR) is also lending some support, with the sector up 0.58%.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) is one of the standout moves, with its shares up 13.37% to $20.99.

The gold miner is rallying after reports that Elliott Investment Management has built a stake and is pushing for change.

The post Why’s the ASX 200 falling today despite another tech rally? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Are Woolworths shares a good buy for passive income?
• Why has the gold price fallen 17% since the Iran war began?
• My 3 best ASX 200 blue-chip shares to buy in June
• WiseTech, Cochlear, CSL shares: Can these beaten down stocks rebound in 2026?
• Northern Star shares just rocketed 12%. Is a takeover battle brewing?

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Harvey Norman, WiseTech Global, Woolworths Group, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has fallen into the red again on Tuesday afternoon off the back of a broad sell-off across financial and real estate stocks, and uncertainty about a potential peace deal between the US and Iran.

When markets are volatile, it’s important to know which ASX 200 shares are good investments and which have a weaker outlook.

Here are 5 ASX 200 shares that brokers rate as a sell, according to Market Index data.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC)

Westpac shares are down around 2% at the time of writing to $35.44 each. The banking giant’s shares are now around 9% lower year to date but still 10% higher than 12 months ago. The bank posted a solid first-half result in early May, but broad bank sector weakness has still pulled the shares lower. Westpac shares came under additional selling pressure last month after a court ruling weighed on sentiment. It looks like Westpac shares could still be overvalued. The majority of brokers rate Westpac shares as a strong sell and tip a 4% downside to an average target price of $33.97 over the next 12 months.

Sonic Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SHL)

Sonic shares hit a multi-year low in late May and have continued to regain any meaningful momentum. At the time of writing, the shares are down around another 2.5% to $18.78 each. For the year to date, the ASX 200 healthcare shares are down around 16% and are 30% lower than this time last year. Sonic has been caught up in the sector-wide rotation away from ASX healthcare shares this year, and it has also faced some company-specific headwinds. The team at Ord Minnett thinks the company could be negatively affected by proposed changes to medical fees in Germany and notes that it lacks organic growth. Market Index data shows a combined sell rating. But after last month’s sell-off, the average target price still implies a potential 13% upside, at the time of writing.

Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ)

The mid-tier ASX 200 bank’s share is down around 1% at the time of writing, to $6.13 a piece. The decline means the shares are down around 7% year to date and 22% from 12 months ago. The bank posted a weaker-than-expected first-half FY26 result in April and flagged tougher conditions for the remainder of the year. Investors reacted negatively, and analysts revised their outlooks following the announcement. Market Index data shows brokers have a sell rating on the shares. The average target price of $6.14 is just one cent above the current trading price at the time of writing.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

CBA shares are down around 0.5% on Tuesday afternoon, to $162.56 each. The shares are now around 1% higher year to date but nearly 8% lower than 12 months ago. The ASX 200 banking giant’s shares dropped 14% in mid-May after it posted a disappointing third-quarter capital update. But after a sharp sell-off, investors quickly bought back into the stock. The banking giant seems to be supported by a flight to quality. In unstable markets, investors often rotate into large companies with stable dividends and dominant market positions to mitigate volatility. But it looks like brokers still see the ASX 200 bank shares as overpriced. They rate CBA shares as a strong sell and tip a 23% downside to an average target price of $124.20, at the time of writing. 

Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT)

Beach Energy shares are slightly higher today, up around 0.2% to $1.10 at the time of writing. The oil and gas exploration and production company’s shares are just over 6% lower year to date and 18% below their 12-month trading levels. Beach Energy posted its third-quarter update in April, which revealed softer sales, a guidance downgrade, and ongoing operational disruptions. The update spooked investors, and now many are worried about the company’s earnings outlook from here. The majority of brokers have a sell rating on the shares, but the average $1.12 target price implies a small 2% upside at the time of writing.

The post Brokers rate these 5 ASX 200 shares as a sell! appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: Wesfarmers, Saluda Medical, CBA shares
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• Is June set to be the month of the ASX healthcare rebound?
• Top 10 ASX shares bought and sold by investors in May
• Are ASX 200 bank shares a buy in June?

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Sonic Healthcare. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The gold price has fallen from US$5,390 per ounce on 2 March to US$4,477 per ounce today, a decline of 17% since the Iran war began.

Gold is a safe haven that is usually defensive in times of geopolitical upheaval. Yet the gold price has fallen as the war has continued.

In 2025, the gold price surged 65%, and that followed a 24% increase in 2024.

Contrast that with this year, during which the gold price has risen just 4% higher over five months.

Why?

Gold price was elevated before war began

James Gruber, an Equity Market Strategist at CommSec, says the gold price began surging in 2022, mostly due to central bank buying.

Central banks began diversifying their reserves after the US and allies froze about US$300 billion of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves as punishment for invading Ukraine.

In an article, Gruber explained:

This hamstrung Russia’s central bank, but it also sent a signal to other countries that their reserves could be frozen at any time.

In other words, their holdings in the likes of US Treasuries were not as safe as previously assumed.

That spurred many central banks to buy large amounts of gold, which was deemed by them to be a safe alternative to holding US-denominated assets.

Demand from central banks was the biggest catalyst pushing the gold price higher.

Once the trend became clear, retail investors joined in.

They bought ASX gold shares, gold ETFs and bullion, and many cashed in their gold jewellery.

Gruber recalled:

You might recall the large lines outside of gold bullion stores in Australia, especially in September and October last year.

That propelled gold prices to reach an intraday record of US$5,589 an ounce in late January.

Since then, and especially after the war began, prices have fallen sharply, albeit there has been a small recovery recently.

Rising demand for gold between 2022 and 2025 also occurred alongside a weakening US dollar, which made gold that much more attractive.

Gruber explains:

In recent years, doubts about the future of the US dollar have arisen with the US running a trade deficit of 6% of GDP and having government debt to GDP of close to 100%, near the highs reached during World War Two.

The current US President, Donald Trump, has further increased the deficit through a combination of tax cuts and higher spending.

What changed after the Iran war began?

Although the gold price has fallen 17% since the war began, the war was not the trigger that disrupted its three-year bull run.

A major sell-off occurred at the very end of January after the gold price ripped nearly 30% in the first month of 2026.

Gruber said central banks may have taken profits after the gold price reached a historical closing high of $5,589 per ounce on 28 January.

Many retail investors also sold their ASX gold shares, ETFs, and bullion during and after that dramatic sell-off.

Then the war began on 28 February.

Sprott Managing Partner, Paul Wong, said the war sparked a rush to liquidity and forced deleveraging for investors.

He argues this does not diminish gold’s new role as a strategic asset in the long term.

Gruber notes that the weakened US dollar gained a bit of ground after the war began. This further dampened demand for gold.

Gold is globally quoted in US dollars so when the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive in other currencies, which can result in demand softening, and prices to fall.

This hints at another potential reason for gold’s recent plunge. That is, rising real yields.

When real yields (bond yields minus inflation) rise, it makes no yielding assets like gold less attractive.

Rising bond yields

James Gerrish and Shawn Hickman from Market Matters discussed how rising bond yields were weighing on gold in a recent webinar.

Hickman said:

If you can get 5% in the bank with no risk, gold’s got to outperform that.

And gold is moving directly with or against bonds. So, as bond [prices] fall, gold’s falling.

When US bond yields go up, it weighs on gold.

Bond yields rise when bond prices fall because the interest those bonds pay becomes a larger percentage of their market price.

For example, if a bond that costs $1,000 pays $50 a year in interest, the yield is 5%.

If the bond price falls to $900, that $50 annual interest payment now equals a yield of 5.56%.

The analysts noted that the crowded trade in ASX gold shares had unwound somewhat this year, given the stalled gold price.

Hickman said:

… because we’ve had so many people overweight the sector. People are holding gold. They haven’t got out.

In a lot of cases, you’re seeing a bit of a exaggeration move in that regard.

Other factors weighing on demand for gold

As we recently reported, higher interest rates in Australia have pushed everyday savings account rates to 5.5% or higher.

Given that gold is a non-yielding asset, higher interest rates tend to be a headwind for the yellow metal.

The ongoing oil shock is creating resurgent inflation in many nations, including Australia, which means interest rates may rise further.

This may further dampen investor appetite for gold in the short to medium term.

Meanwhile, the US and Iran are reportedly close to a deal that would end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait, through which about 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply is shipped, has been effectively at a standstill since early March.

Wong points out that Gulf Cooperation Council nations are some of the world’s largest accumulators of reserves.

Their gold purchases are funded mainly by oil exports, which have been stalled due to the effective closure of the Strait.

That means many Middle Eastern nations have not had the revenue to continue buying gold.

Wong said the gold price “does not require outright selling to fall; the loss of incremental buying pressure is sufficient”.

He also pointed out that the war led to an aggressive investment capital rotation out of metals and into energy.

This has drawn investment flows away from gold and other metals.

ASX gold shares in 2026

Here is a snapshot of how ASX gold shares have performed in 2026 compared to their rise in 2025.

ASX gold share	Share price movement in 2026	Share price movement last year
Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)	-14%	73%
Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM)	-0.5%	152%
Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)	-3%	164%
Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU)	-10%	121%
Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD)	-21%	194%
Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL)	-18%	196%
Resolute Mining Ltd (ASX: RSG)	-4%	206%
Pantoro Gold Ltd (ASX: PNR)	-43%	220%

The post Why has the gold price fallen 17% since the Iran war began? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Northern Star shares just rocketed 12%. Is a takeover battle brewing?
• Buying ASX 200 gold stocks? Here’s how Evolution Mining, Newmont and Northern Star shares stacked up in May
• Why Evolution Mining, JB Hi-Fi, Scentre Group, and TPG Telecom shares are falling today
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lithium stocks broadly enjoyed another month of solid gains in May.

From market close on 30 April through to the closing bell on 29 May, the ASX 200 gained a respectable 0.8%.

Here’s how these ASX 200 lithium stocks stacked up over the month just past:

• Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares gained 15.3% to close May at $73.47 apiece
• Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares gained 3.0% to close May at $2.42 apiece
• Pls Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) – formerly Pilbara Minerals – shares gained 7.3% to close May at $6.46 each
• IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) shares gained 28.9% to close May at $9.58 apiece

The big Aussie lithium producers all caught tailwinds from the ongoing global resurgence in lithium prices.

Spodumene (a lithium bearing ore) prices leapt 13% over the first half of May, before retracing to trade up around 3% for the month at 29 May.

What’s been happening with these ASX 200 lithium stocks longer term?

Spodumene prices have since gained another 2% or so through to today, which sees the lithium price up around 196% since this time last year.

As you’d expect, that’s put a rocket under ASX 200 lithium stocks.

How much of a rocket?

Well, over the past 12 months the ASX 200 has gained 3.2%.

Here are the types of returns investors in the Aussie lithium producers have reaped over this same period:

• IGO shares are up 158.6%
• Mineral Resources shares are up 277.1%
• Liontown shares are up 339.3%
• PLS shares are up 481.6%

Boom!

Why did IGO shares outperform in May?

You may have noticed that the 28.9% IGO share price gain in May significantly outpaced the gains posted by Mineral Resources, PLS or Liontown shares over the month.

With no price sensitive information released by any of the ASX 200 lithium stocks in May, that outperformance looks to have been driven by bargain hunters, after IGO closed out April with a whimper.

Indeed, IGO shares crashed 17.9% on 24 April after the miner downgraded its full year spodumene production guidance for its flagship Greenbushes hard-rock lithium miner, located in Western Australia.

Investors were reaching for their sell buttons when IGO cut FY 2026 production guidance for Greenbushes to 1,375kt to 1,425kt. That was down from prior guidance of 1,500kt to 1,650kt.

Commenting on the downgrade on the day, IGO CEO Ivan Vella said:

Greenbushes production result this quarter is disappointing. Performance has been challenged across a number of metrics including safety, feed grade, recoveries, maintenance execution and plant reliability.

But judging by the big share price rebound in May, ASX investors believe IGO can address these issues moving forward.

The post How ASX 200 lithium stocks like Liontown, Mineral Resources and PLS shares again beat the benchmark in May appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Which ASX lithium shares to buy as the market recovers: 2 brokers weigh in
• Buy, hold, sell: 3 very popular ASX mining stocks
• Top 10 ASX shares bought and sold by investors in May
• Buy, hold, sell: BHP, PLS Group, CBA shares
• How much could the PLS Group share price rise in the next year?

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.