The Regional Express Holdings Ltd (ASX: REX) share price has more than doubled in the past 7 weeks, surging more than 140% from its low in late March. The positive price action dwarfs the recovery seen in the share price of its larger competitors Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) and Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VAH) over the same period.
Here’s why the Regional Express share price is flying and a closer look at whether Rex could be a long-term buy.
A potential three-airline market
Securities in Regional Express (Rex) entered a trading halt yesterday, following an article in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) that suggested the airliner was looking to expand its services. According to the article, Rex is looking to capitalise on the fragmented domestic market by investing $200 million into capital city services.
According to the report, the company plans to lease a fleet of 10 aircraft and hire new pilots, crew and ground staff. The new services offered by Rex will compete directly with Qantas, its subsidiary Jetstar and Virgin Australia as a budget and full-service airline.
How has Rex performed during the pandemic?
Regional Express operates exclusive services to 60 regional destinations in Australia and currently has a fleet of 60 Saab aircraft. The company has been able to maintain minimum services to regional Australia thanks to funding arrangements with both federal and state governments.
The company was founded in 2002 and has made an operational profit every year since 2004. An interesting note from the article in the AFR is that Rex’s cumulative net profits over the past 6 years have exceeded the combined earnings of both Qantas and Virgin over the same period.
Despite the company’s resilience and consistent profitability, Rex has not been spared the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The airline withdrew its profit guidance in mid-March citing the uncertain trading environment. The company also released an open letter to the Deputy Prime Minister, which stated that regional operators like Rex could only last for a few weeks based on reserves without government assistance.
Should you buy?
Given the distressed state of the domestic airline sector, Regional Express has found an opportune moment to enter the market. Rex currently dominates regional services, covering 85% of the routes offered. However, the move from being a purely regional airline to servicing capital cities could be interesting. If the company manages to build on its existing infrastructure and maintain a lower cost base, it should be competitive.
I think the prospect of Rex expanding its services would be great for consumers and potentially shareholders as well. I think a prudent strategy for investors would be to keep any eye on the sector and Rex in particular before making an investment decision.
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Returns as of 7/4/2020
More reading
- In a post-COVID world, could Australia be the next superpower?
- 3 ASX 200 pandemic winners and 3 losers
- Are there any safe havens in ASX aviation shares?
- These ASX 200 shares saw the biggest falls last week
- ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: New ASX bull run continues
Motley Fool contributor Nikhil Gangaram has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.
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