Day: 22 May 2020

  • Is the Afterpay share price a buy at $44?

    afterpay share price

    Is the Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) share price a buy at $44?

    Amazingly, the Afterpay share price has risen by 400% over the past two months from the coronavirus price of $8.90 on 23 March 2020. That’s some recovery.

    Perhaps some investors thought that the Afterpay model was about to come unstuck. Maybe they thought that every active customer wasn’t going to pay their most recent balance. Clearly that wasn’t the case.

    Afterpay has managed to keep growing despite the worries about the worrying coronavirus economic conditions. I think Afterpay has done the right thing by adjusting its risk settings so that it’s a bit more cautious during this period.

    The third quarter of FY20 still saw solid growth with total underlying sales growth of 105% compared to FY19. Within that, US growth was 263% and ANZ growth was 40%.

    April saw average daily underlying sales growth of approximately 10% globally compared to the second half of March. Promising signs of a recovery. 

    Afterpay US recently announced that it has passed 5 million active customers. 

    Not all easy for the Afterpay share price

    I fear that investors may be thinking that Afterpay is unstoppable now. It’s true that the buy now, pay later business has revolutionised how people pay in instalments (for no cost). But plenty of competition don’t want Afterpay to have all the limelight.

    Global ecommerce player Shopify is launching ‘Shop Pay Installments’. Shopify said that “buyers will be able to pay for purchases in four equal payments over time, with no interest or fees. Merchants will receive the full purchase amount upfront, and Shopify will collect the remaining installment payments, meaning there’s no risk to merchants. This flexible payment option will allow buyers to stretch out their payments, making purchases more convenient. This, in turn, will help merchants increase cart sizes and overall sales.” This could cause trouble for the Afterpay share price. 

    At $44 I think the Afterpay share price is far too optimistic and assumes the company won’t have to reduce margins to maintain market share in the future. Even if I were interested in buying Afterpay shares, I wouldn’t remotely want to buy above $40.

    I’d much rather buy growth shares at a more reasonable valuation for the potential outcomes.

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    Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Top brokers are urging you to buy this slumping ASX 200 stock next week

    Buy ASX shares

    The Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ASX: ALL) share price is underperforming again on Friday after it’s disappointing profit results.

    But top brokers believe the sell-off is overdone and are urging bargain hunters to use the weakness to buy the gaming machines developer.

    The Aristocrat share price fell 1.7% to $25.52 – taking its two day decline to 6.7% when the S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO) lost 1.3% as geopolitical tensions knocked some wind out of global markets.

    COVID-19 hit to profits

    The sell-off in Aristocrat came as the group’s earnings missed consensus estimates. Its normalised interim net profit of $368 million was well below the $450 million that brokers were expecting.

    The weakness was primarily due to its land-based business, which supplies poker machines to hotels and casinos.

    The shutdown of gaming venues due to the COVID-19 pandemic more than offset the strength in its digital social gaming division.

    Are Aristocrat’s shares cheap?

    But UBS is unperturbed as it reiterated its “buy” recommendation on the stock with a 12-month price target of $31.80 a share.

    “We remain confident in the pipeline of product and note management comments that the company has not reduced spend within R&D as a cost-saving strategy,” said the broker.

    “In a month, we should know if this is a short-term surge or something more sustainable. The outcome of this has the potential to act as a significant catalyst for the share price in our view.”

    Well placed for the coronavirus recovery

    The bullish sentiment was echoed by Credit Suisse as it too repeated its “outperform” (or “buy”) call on the stock.

    “Casino operators – opening with partial capacity – need strong game performance, assistance in moving slot machines, and flexibility in pricing models,” said Credit Suisse.

    “We sense that ALL is ahead of the competition on sales and service.”

    The broker also noted that Aristocrat’s digital business is performing ahead of its expectations and the group’s balance sheet is able to withstand the downturn in the global casino industry.

    Not without risks

    JP Morgan was equally impressed with Aristocrat’s digital division, which makes popular mobile apps but believes the downturn in the land-based business will last closer to 24 months than the six months many are expecting.

    It also highlighted the risk that management may need to undertake a capital raise to help it ride out the coronavirus storm.

    Nonetheless, JP Morgan still regards the stock as a buy and stuck with its “overweight” recommendation, although it lowered its price target on Aristocrat to $28.50 from $30.30 a share.

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    Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of Aristocrat Leisure Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Coronavirus latest: Friday, May 22

    Coronavirus latest: Friday, May 22CanSino Biologics, a Chinese vaccine company, announced on Friday that it saw strong, positive results from its phase one trials of a coronavirus vaccine, which it tested on 108 volunteers. Yahoo Finance’s Anjalee Khemlani joins The Final Round to break down the latest news about the coronavirus.

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  • A 180-year old cloth brand with a Bond and Bachchan connection shuts shop in India

    A 180-year old cloth brand with a Bond and Bachchan connection shuts shop in IndiaA pile of problems.

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  • China aims to tighten control over Hong Kong with security proposal

    China aims to tighten control over Hong Kong with security proposal The Conference Board Senior Economist Erik Lundh joins Yahoo Finance’s Brian Cheung and Zack Guzman to discuss China’s plans set up national security agencies in Hong Kong and the growing tensions between Beijing and Washington.

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  • 3 Top 5G Semiconductor Stock Picks From BofA

    3 Top 5G Semiconductor Stock Picks From BofAThe rollout of 5G wireless networks around the world is one of the biggest potential stock market catalysts in the coming years — especially for semiconductor stocks. Some companies will certainly benefit from the 5G network boom more than others.BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya said this week that radio frequency chip makers will be some of the biggest 5G winners. Arya estimates that 5G devices will average between $15 and $16 in RF content per device, up from just $9 per 4G device.How To Play 5G With RF Names BofA is forecasting 14% compound annual revenue growth for the RF industry from 2020 through 2022 after the industry flatlined at around $12.5 billion annually over the past three years.About 650 million 5G phone shipments are expected in 2022, up from 170 million this year, the analyst said. Skyworks Solutions Inc (NASDAQ: SWKS), Qorvo Inc (NASDAQ: QRVO) and QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) are particularly well-positioned given their relationships with suppliers, he said. "Separately, SWKS benefits from strong positioning in IoT markets; QRVO strength in infrastructure, and AVGO strength in networking/compute/software." Initial 5G launches in China have been solid, Arya said. While bears argue that 5G devices lack "must-have" features, commercial momentum will drive mainstream adoption over time, the analyst said. Bank of America has Buy ratings on all three stocks mentioned, The firm has a $140 target for Skyworks, a $120 price target for Qorvo and a $100 target for Qualcomm.Benzinga's Take 5G phones will likely follow the same successful upgrade template that has worked repeatedly in the tech world for decades. 5G phones will initially be a novelty, but they will soon be the universal standard as 4G phones are slowly phased out over time.Do you agree with this take? Email feedback@benzinga.com with your thoughts.Related Links:Here's How Long It Took Nvidia To Reach A 0B Market Cap Nvidia Analyst Says New, Ampere-Based Data Center GPU Makes Chipmaker 'Unassailable'Latest Ratings for SWKS DateFirmActionFromTo May 2020UBSMaintainsNeutral May 2020JP MorganMaintainsNeutral May 2020Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight View More Analyst Ratings for SWKS View the Latest Analyst RatingsSee more from Benzinga * Q1 13F Roundup: How Buffett, Einhorn, Ackman And Others Adjusted Their Portfolios * Goldman Turns Bearish On Apple, Qualcomm, Projects 36% Drop In Q2 iPhone Sales * 10 Stocks To Buy With Low Debt And High Liquidity(C) 2020 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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  • Venezuelan high court orders DirecTV property seized

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  • MIT Study shows ‘devastating’ cost of states reopening without coordination amid COVID-19

    MIT Study shows 'devastating' cost of states reopening without coordination amid COVID-19	As more states continue to reopen, people are questioning how the government will prevent a new spike in COVID-19 cases. Sinan Aral, David Austin Professor of Management at MIT and Author of “The Hype Machine” joins Yahoo Finance’s On The Move to discuss why states need to coordinate reopening amongst each other.

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  • Alibaba Sales Growth Plumbs New Lows While Uncertainty Escalates

    Alibaba Sales Growth Plumbs New Lows While Uncertainty Escalates(Bloomberg) — Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. expects revenue growth to slow this year, reflecting post-Covid 19 economic uncertainty at home as well as the potential for U.S.-Chinese tensions to disrupt its business.The e-commerce giant forecast sales growth this year of at least 27.5% to more than 650 billion yuan ($91 billion), down from 35% previously and slightly below analysts’ estimates. While it posted a better-than-expected 22% rise in March quarter revenue of 114.3 billion yuan, that marked its slowest pace of expansion on record. Alibaba’s shares slid more than 5% in New York.Online shopping began to bounce back from March, executives said Friday. But the tepid outlook demonstrates the world’s second largest economy has yet to fully shake off Covid-19, with consumers still hesitant about spending on big-ticket items. Asia’s largest corporation is tackling also the rise of rivals such as ByteDance Ltd. and Pinduoduo Inc. And the Tmall operator is going head-to-head with Tencent Holdings Ltd. for internet leadership in everything from online media to payments and cloud computing.Alibaba has lost more than $40 billion of market value since the coronavirus first erupted in January, and now has to grapple with not just an uncertain global economic environment but also any potential fallout from U.S.-Chinese financial tensions. On Friday, executives sought to assuage concerns about a U.S. bill that mandates much closer accounting scrutiny of U.S.-listed Chinese companies and may bar them from American bourses.Chief Financial Officer Maggie Wu said Alibaba’s financial statements have been consistently prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP accounting measures and were beyond reproach. “The integrity of Alibaba’s financial statements speak for itself, we have been an SEC filer since 2014 and hold ourselves to the highest standard,” she told analysts on a conference call. “We will endeavor to comply with any legislation whose aim is to protect and bring transparency to investors who buy securities on U.S. stock exchanges.”The bigger short-term challenge is in reviving growth: Alibaba’s bread-and-butter customer management or marketing business grew just 3% in the March quarter. Much of that stems from weaker consumer sentiment during the coronavirus-stricken quarter, when total Chinese e-commerce rose just 5.9% or at less than a third of 2019’s pace, according to government data.Rival PDD posted a revenue rise of 44% on Friday, down sharply from 91% in the previous quarter, although that still beat expectations. Its sales and marketing expenses jumped 49%.Alibaba’s net income was 3.2 billion yuan, down 88% from a year ago when it booked an 18.7 billion yuan one-time gain on investments. In February, Alibaba declared a waiver of some service fees for merchants struggling financially during the outbreak on its main direct-to-consumer Tmall platform. In April, the company rolled out a new 10-billion-yuan subsidy program for Tmall users to buy electronics, encroaching on JD.com Inc.’s traditional turf. These initiatives may further compress margins for the June quarter.“The challenging part is for them to achieve the same amount of growth this year,” said Steven Zhu, a Shanghai-based analyst with Pacific Epoch. “Just because they are too big, for the same amount of growth, they need to spend much more effort.”But executives were confident in a gradual e-commerce recovery over the year. Beyond its main business, younger divisions such as its cloud computing arm should buoy its bottom line. That division’s revenue jumped 58% in the quarter.“Despite a challenging quarter due to reduced economic activities in light of the COVID-19 pandemic in China, we achieved our annual revenue guidance,” Wu said in a statement. “Although the pandemic negatively impacted most of our domestic core commerce businesses starting in late January, we have seen a steady recovery since March.”What Bloomberg Intelligence SaysThe company’s businesses most impacted by merchant and logistic disruptions are also its most lucrative, such as retail marketplaces Taobao and Tmall, while faster-growing segments like cloud computing and digital entertainment don’t contribute to profit. Subsidies for users and merchants will add to costs. Alibaba may provide an improved growth outlook for the June quarter given the retreat of the pandemic in China, but the recovery could be gradual as consumption sentiment remains weak.\- Vey-Sern Ling and Tiffany Tam, analystsClick here for the research.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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