Day: 22 May 2020

It has been anything but smooth sailing for the cruise industry. The COVID-19 pandemic and the widespread travel restrictions have caused sailings to be suspended, sending shares to record lows. To survive, cruise operators have gone into cash preservation mode, entering into liquidity enhancing credit agreements. Against this backdrop, investors are hardly lining up to pull the trigger on names within this area of the market. However, five-star analyst Benjamin Chaiken, of Credit Suisse, has a more optimistic view of the industry. He acknowledges that “COVID -19 may be the toughest challenge the industry has ever faced”, with it potentially taking several years to regain pricing parity. That being said, he argues the “unmatched value proposition of the product” will power a rebound, and that the recent weakness presents an attractive entry point with liquidity struggles already built in. Highlighting the resiliency of the industry, Chaiken said, "The cruise industry has bounced back before from deadly accidents, sudden regulatory changes and storms.” He added, “Additionally, we think the cruise demographic is favorable for a recovery in demand, and could be why 55% of cruise customers, according to our checks, are opting for a cruise credit vs. cash, post COVID -19 disruption. We think this is a very powerful data point highlighting the resiliency in the product, and speaks volumes in terms of future demand for the industry, especially in the context of current sentiment which questions if the product will even exist in the future.” Taking all of this into consideration, Chaiken points to two cruise line stocks with especially strong long-term growth narratives, initiating coverage of each with bullish ratings. The analyst does remind clients that not all cruise industry players are set to outperform, recommending that investors avoid one in particular. Using TipRanks’ database, we wanted to see if other Wall Street analysts agree with Chaiken’s calls. Here’s what we found out. Royal Caribbean (RCL) With 63 ships carrying approximately 6 million passengers every year, Royal Caribbean counts itself as one of the top cruise ship operators. While COVID-19 has certainly taken a toll on the company, Chaiken believes that when demand recovers, RCL will be a major beneficiary. The Credit Suisse analyst argues that part of the company’s strength is derived from the location in which it operates cruises. “We think the Caribbean –where RCL is best positioned in terms of capacity allocation and product–could be a bright spot when demand does return. Many Caribbean itineraries require little or no air travel to embarkation, which we think is likely a positive for those with remaining fear over air travel,” he explained. It also doesn’t hurt that “RCL has the ability to market to guests with a shorter booking window.” Additionally, Chaiken implores investors to take RCL’s performance before the onset of the public health crisis into account. "We think RCL was gaining significant momentum heading into the Coronavirus-led slowdown, with its CocoCay destination (a private island in the Bahamas offering differentiated land-based activities), demanding price premiums and an had been planning an 80% increase in volume in 2020 vs. 2019, prior to the outbreak,” the analyst stated. He added, “RCL finished 2019 at 108% occupancy and reported net yields of 8%.” If that wasn’t enough, Chaiken expects several potential tailwinds to emerge post-COVID-19. Its acquisition of Silversea added two ships to the fleet and expanded its agent network, providing a tailwind to yields. Cost tailwinds could also be in RCL’s future. Even though liquidity and cash burn are considered by some to be a cause for concern, Chaiken is optimistic. “RCL recently raised $3.3 billion in secured notes, giving us further confidence that they should be able to manage the slowdown,” he noted. To this end, Chaiken kicked off his RCL coverage by publishing an Outperform rating. Accompanying the bullish call is a $67 price target, which suggests 55% upside potential. (To watch Chaiken’s track record, click here) Looking at the consensus breakdown, the bulls have it. RCL’s Moderate Buy consensus rating breaks down into 8 Buys, 5 Holds and 1 Sell. At $60.36, the average price target implies 39% upside potential. (See Royal Caribbean stock analysis on TipRanks) Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) Comprised of three brands that include Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas Cruises, this name operates 28 ships in the Caribbean, Europe, Alaska, Asia, Bermuda and Hawaii. Despite the fact that COVID-19 fears have pushed shares down by 76% year-to-date, Credit Suisse recommends that investors go in on NCLH based on its solid event path and positioning in an expanding segment. Chaiken points out that NCLH has recently enhanced liquidity in not one, not two, but six different ways. These include receiving a “debt holiday” from its export credit partners, delaying amortization payments which added $905 million of liquidity, an investment from private equity firm L Catterton, as well as share, convertible debt and notes offerings. On top of this, the company already ended 2019 with $1.8 billion of liquidity. With respect to cash burn, Chaiken estimates “NCLH has a cash burn profile in the $140-150 million per month range”, which gives it two years of runway in an environment with no revenue. It should also be noted that NCLH doesn’t have ship deliveries until 2022, alleviating some of the pressure on the company. "With $4 billion of liquidity, no new ship deliveries until 2022, and our assumption of a return to cruising in August, we do not see bankruptcy on the table,” the analyst commented. Sure, COVID-19 will most likely weigh on pricing and capacity in 2020, but Chaiken thinks that like RCL, the strong trends witnessed before the outbreak should be considered. “NCLH finished the year at 107% occupancy and reported net yields of 3.6% in 2019. Adjusting for headwinds related to Norwegian Pearl, Hurricane Dorian and Cuba, we think NCLH generated core growth of 5.6% in 2019… we think NCLH was likely ~20 -25% booked for 1H21, as of March 1, providing a layer of pricing stability, even as newly booked sailings potentially see significant pricing deceleration as some cancellations inevitably occur,” he explained. Adding to the good news, NCLH also stands to benefit from the reversal of the shortened Cuba booking window and improving mix for the former Cuba ships as well as lapping Hurricane Dorian and a technical issue related to Pearl, with these adding a “small layer of stability in a volatile time.” “We think NCLH offers a differentiated vacation, within an oligopoly, at a significant discount to other land-based alternatives and as such we believe we will see demand for the product come back,” Chaiken concluded. It should come as no surprise, then, that Chaiken joined the bulls. To start off his coverage, he put an Outperform rating and $21 price target on the stock. Should this target be met, a twelve-month gain of 50% could be in store. Turning now to the rest of the Street, 7 Buys and 8 Holds have been assigned in the last three months, making the consensus rating a Moderate Buy. In addition, the $16.50 average price target implies shares could surge 18% in the next year. (See Norwegian Cruise Line stock analysis on TipRanks) Carnival Corporation (CCL) When it comes to Carnival, the largest publicly traded cruise line, the company has found itself in choppy waters, with Chaiken not expecting smooth sailing anytime soon. Down 71% since the start of 2020, some might see this decline as representing a buying opportunity. However, in the long-term, Chaiken believes the company will come up short when compared to its peers. The analyst makes it clear that he doesn’t see bankruptcy as being very likely based on the fact that CCL raised $9 billion of liquidity over the last few months. Having said that, this financing could create a problem for CCL as it will almost triple its interest expense. Looking at the near-term, Chaiken points to its high levels of cash burn as setting the company up for trouble. “From a cash burn perspective, we estimate CCL has a cash burn profile in the ~$1 billion per month range, leaving them with just over nine months of runway in a zero-revenue environment. This compares to RCL of $450-470 million per month and NCLH of $140- 150 million per month,” he stated. Also problematic, CCL had less momentum going into the year than both RCL and NCLH as its net yields were flat. The most significant issue for CCL, though, is that passengers from Europe make up a substantial portion of its customer base, and Chaiken has less confidence in certain European economies, namely Italy. Expounding on this, Chaiken said, “Given CCL sources its European itineraries (~30% of capacity) with guests from Europe, in our view it adds an additional layer of risk to the story not present in RCL or NCLH…So while we think CCL will live to fight another day, we think CCL will underperform peers as demand rebounds. In short, we think CCL has greater implicit leverage to continental Europe given they fill their European-based itineraries with customers who live in Europe.” Bearing this in mind, Chaiken took a spot on the sidelines. Along with his Neutral rating, he set a $12 price target. This target suggests shares could shed 18% of their value in the next year. The verdict is in, and the rest of the Street agrees with Chaiken. 3 Buys, 8 Holds and 3 Sells add up to a Hold consensus rating. That said, the $19.33 average price target does indicate upside potential, 32% to be exact. (See Carnival price targets and analyst ratings on TipRanks)

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Local government authorities in China’s Sichuan province have issued a notice, seeking to “ban” crypto mining activities in the region.The post Local Chinese government seeks to 'ban' crypto mining activities, sources say it doesn't mean much appeared first on The Block.

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Top news and what to watch in the markets on Friday, May 22, 2020.

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(Bloomberg) — Speculation that the U.K. could be the next major nation with negative interest rates is hurting the pound and driving a record rally in the country’s haven bonds.Sterling tumbled against a stronger dollar and gilt yields touched fresh all-time lows after Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden became the latest policy maker to signal that interest rates below 0% could be a possibility. Traders in money markets are betting the U.K. could see sub-zero interest rates by year-end.Ramsden’s comments “are broadly in line with other Monetary Policy Committee members this week which have signaled that the BOE is giving serious consideration to putting in place negative rates,” said Lee Hardman, a foreign-exchange strategist at MUFG. “I don’t think it would surprising to see the pound fall back towards the March lows if negative rates were put in place.”The pound slid 0.4% to $1.2176, taking its losses this quarter to 1.9%, making it the worst performer among Group-of-10 major peers. It fell to a 35-year low of $1.1412 in March as London, the world’s largest foreign-exchange trading hub, headed for a lockdown as the coronavirus spread.Data out Friday showed a record U.K. budget deficit of 62.1 billion pounds ($76 billion) in April. Retail sales data collapsed by almost a fifth in the same month.The BOE’s forecasts expect an economic contraction of 14% this year. The pound is also being weighed down by a lack of progress on Brexit trade talks, which could see a so-called cliff-edge exit from a transitional period with the European Union at the end of the year.BOE Governor Andrew Bailey hinted at his own change of heart on negative rates when giving testimony to parliamentary lawmakers earlier this week. That took two-year gilt yields, which are most sensitive to interest-rate expectations, to a record low below 0%.The yields fell further Friday in the wake of Ramsden’s comments to a new record at -0.07%, down by as many as three basis points. While the U.K. is boosting debt supply to fund its crisis response, the BOE is soaking up much of that through its asset-purchase program, leading investors to keep buying gilts.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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(Bloomberg) — Deutsche Lufthansa AG is close to a multibillion euro bailout deal that would see the state become its biggest shareholder after the coronavirus punctured a decades-long boom in air travel.The shares gained as much as 8.3% Thursday after Europe’s largest carrier confirmed it’s in advanced talks with Germany’s WSF Economic Stabilization Fund for as much as 9 billion euros ($9.9 billion) in aid. The package would include a 3 billion-euro loan, a so-called silent participation and a 20% direct stake through the sale of new shares, Lufthansa said.The government would also receive a convertible bond equivalent to 5% plus one share. Under German law, the 25% plus one share total stake would enable the state to block motions at annual general meetings, giving it a veto over hostile takeover attempts.“A decision can be expected shortly,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said late Wednesday in Berlin, adding that “intensive talks” were ongoing with the company and the European Commission, which would need to approve a deal.If agreed, the compromise deal would bring the curtain down on weeks of tense negotiations between the company and state officials. At issue was the question of how involved the state should be in the affairs of a company that’s long been a symbol of German industrial might and its identity as exporter to the world. Like other airlines across the globe, Lufthansa has been battered by a near-halt to air travel that’s ruined the finances of previously healthy carriers and forced them to seek state bailouts.Under the plan, Germany would also receive two seats on Lufthansa’s supervisory board. The company didn’t say whether these would be political or independent figures, a matter under discussion in negotiations.The seats should be occupied by experts who won’t influence business decisions, said Carsten Linnemann, a legislator in Merkel’s CDU-led conservative caucus group. “The goal is an early exit of the state, so that Lufthansa will be able to stand on its own feet again.”Lufthansa advanced 5.6% to 8.36 euros as of 1:43 p.m. Thursday in Frankfurt. The stock has lost about half its value this year.EU DecisionAn accord could be completed rapidly once the European Commission grants its approval.The commission declined to comment Thursday on specific cases. It said in an email that it’s aware of the difficulties in the aviation sector and European Union state-aid rules “enable member states to support companies affected by the outbreak.”It would also set the scene for a dramatic extraordinary general meeting at which shareholders would vote on whether to accept a package that would dilute their own stakes.Lufthansa would issue the shares to the government for the nominal price of 2.56 euros, a steep discount that would allow the state to profit from any upside to the price. The parties are also discussing a capital-cut option that would see Lufthansa issue shares below that price, the statement said.Lufthansa units in Switzerland, Austria and Belgium, stand to receive some 2 billion euros in additional funds from those countries. The Swiss deal totaling 1.28 billion francs ($1.3 billion) is in place, while the Austrian and Belgian ageements are likely to follow Germany’s.Grand CompromiseFinal details of the German deal are still being worked out, according to a government spokeswoman.The contours of a deal come after the airline warned in a letter that cash reserves continued to shrink while it negotiates the rescue package. Lufthansa’s board said it hoped the government would find the “political will” for a deal that would keep the carrier competitive against international airlines.The German government and Lufthansa have been locked in intense negotiations for weeks over the rescue plan. While the Economy Ministry and Finance Ministry internally agreed on taking a stake of 25% plus one share, the company had opposed the move, people familiar with the matter said earlier.Lufthansa executives had raised concerns that the terms on offer would hamstring it against international competitors who’ve received less stringent bailout conditions, a point the management board repeated in the letter to employees.Christian Democrats had also voiced concern that the running of Lufthansa risks becoming politicized. The party is trying to prevent Ulrich Nussbaum, the deputy to Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, from taking one of the board seats. They feel Nussbaum betrayed his boss by forcing his own agenda in the talks.“The two seats in the supervisory board must now be occupied by experts, who will aim for the economic recovery of Lufthansa and who won’t follow a political agenda,” CDU legislator Linnemann said.Lufthansa is burning through 800 million euros each month after the coronavirus grounded most of its fleet. Chief Executive Officer Carsten Spohr said on May 5 that the company had about 4 billion euros in cash remaining.(Updates with legislator, European Commission comment from seventh paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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A pile of problems.

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