The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is recovering from its recent sell-off along with its peers. But a warning of an oversupply of the commodity could keep shareholders on edge.
This wasnât the news investors wanted to hear as the BHP share price bounced 0.7% to $39.22 on Friday.
BHP share price holding up a little better than peers
The Big Australian is leading the recovery as the Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) share price and Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) share price gained 0.3% and 0.6% respectively.
The three largest ASX iron ore miners finished the day off their intraday highs.
That could indicate a lack of confidence that the worst is over for the sector, with the BHP share price shedding 15% of its value over the past month. At least thatâs a bit better than the 19% drop in the Fortescue share price and 17% decline in the Rio Tinto share price over the period.
Supply of iron ore will exceed demand in 2H 2022
What could also be dampening sentiment is a prediction by Morgan Stanley.
The broker looked at how the market behaved in the past two years, where a surplus of iron ore emerges in the second half of the year.
It believes history will repeat this year and said:
We see this dynamic playing out for the third year in a row, at a comparable if not larger scale as in 2021.
Similar to last year, we expect China’s already in excess steel production to decline, while iron ore supply appears once again on track for a much stronger 2H vs 1H.
Warning signs for iron ore market
There are early warning signs that the broker’s prediction will come through.
Inventory of the steel-making ingredient was building at Chinaâs ports last week. This is the first time since mid-February that inventory is increasing.
Itâs also worth noting that Chinese steel demand slows during the summer months, which makes the iron ore price particularly vulnerable.
Morgan Stanley noted that the risks to iron ore missing its second half base case target of US$130 a tonne is increasing.
Silver lining for the BHP share price
But it isnât all bad news. While near-term risks remain, the broker believes that most of this bad news is already factored into the market. Thatâs the silver lining from the correction in the BHP share price and other ASX mining shares.
Whatâs more, we could see support for the iron ore price come as early as autumn. Thatâs when Morgan Stanley expects to see the profit margins of Chinese steel companies recover.
Ironically, the high inflationary pressure thatâs driving up production costs may actually be good news for the BHP share price and that of the other big ASX miners.
This is because commodities often find a floor around the marginal cost of production. Higher costs hurt smaller miners more as the big boys have economies of scale.
Letâs hope these positives are enough to calm frayed nerves in this volatile market.
The post Own BHP shares? Top broker warns of looming oversupply of iron ore in 2H 2022 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.
Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?
When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now
See The 5 Stocks
*Returns as of July 7 2022
(function() {
function setButtonColorDefaults(param, property, defaultValue) {
if( !param || !param.includes(‘#’)) {
var button = document.getElementsByClassName(“pitch-snippet”)[0].getElementsByClassName(“pitch-button”)[0];
button.style[property] = defaultValue;
}
}
setButtonColorDefaults(“#43B02A”, ‘background’, ‘#5FA85D’);
setButtonColorDefaults(“#43B02A”, ‘border-color’, ‘#43A24A’);
setButtonColorDefaults(“#fff”, ‘color’, ‘#fff’);
})()
More reading
- Rio Tinto shares avoid a rocky Friday amid US$220 billion commodity stimulus rumours
- Why BHP and other ASX mining shares are making strides on Friday
- Own Rio Tinto shares? Hereâs the outlook for July
- Whatâs the outlook for ASX 200 dividend shares in FY23?
- Here are the top 10 ASX shares today
Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau has positions in BHP Billiton Limited, Fortescue Metals Group Limited, and Rio Tinto Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.
from The Motley Fool Australia https://ift.tt/ALcqF4m