Forget the Santa Rally: Why January could be big for ASX 200 shares

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are still awaiting the sound of reindeer hooves to announce the vaunted Santa Rally.

The Santa Rally, if you’re unfamiliar, refers to the historical tendency for stock markets to outperform in the lead up to Christmas.

Depending on who you ask, the rally is meant to occur either in the five trading days leading up to Christmas, or the last five trading days of the year.

Whatever the timeline, with ASX 200 shares down 0.6% so far in December, a late-month rally would be welcomed.

But data from Bank of America suggests that investors may want to look beyond the man in the red suit and position themselves for a strong run from the benchmark index in January.

Why January could be big for ASX 200 shares

While January 2022 was a shocker for ASX 200 shares, the previous two years saw a strong uptick in the first month of the year.

What happens in 2023 remains to be seen. But, as reported by the Australian Financial Review, Bank of America’s equity analysts said January “typically” kicks off with strong retail investor buying.

According to the analysts, January is normally the strongest month for equity inflows. Driven by retail investors, BofA has recorded client inflows for 11 out of the past 15 years.

That trend is particularly strong when the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) has fallen in the prior year, with inflows in January reported to be well above average.

And with the S&P 500 down almost 17% year to date, 2022 looks almost certain to fall into the down year category.

Narrowing it down to specific ASX 200 sectors, financial shares were said to typically have enjoyed the biggest average inflows in January. Consumer discretionary shares, perhaps because it’s right after the big holiday splurges, have normally seen outflows.

Whatever the timing of the next big market rally turns out to be, investors still sitting on the sidelines will merely be spectators.

The post Forget the Santa Rally: Why January could be big for ASX 200 shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

(function() {
function setButtonColorDefaults(param, property, defaultValue) {
if( !param || !param.includes(‘#’)) {
var button = document.getElementsByClassName(“pitch-snippet”)[0].getElementsByClassName(“pitch-button”)[0];
button.style[property] = defaultValue;
}
}

setButtonColorDefaults(“#0095C8”, ‘background’, ‘#5FA85D’);
setButtonColorDefaults(“#0095C8”, ‘border-color’, ‘#43A24A’);
setButtonColorDefaults(“#fff”, ‘color’, ‘#fff’);
})()

More reading

• Why is the Core Lithium share price cratering 8% today?
• Can you time the stock market with ASX value investing?
• Is Qantas stock a cheap ASX 200 buy right now?
• ASX 200 shares slump amid Fed 5% fears
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

from The Motley Fool Australia https://ift.tt/2CGLPpd