3 ASX shares to cash in on China’s reopening to the world: Jun Bei Liu

After sticking to a strict ‘zero-COVID’ policy for three years, the Chinese government finally relented last month.

In a country where dissent is rare and severely punished, by November many Chinese people had had enough of lockdowns and protested in multiple cities.

Spooked by the anger, the authorities abruptly ended zero-COVID and started opening up individual and business liberties.

That’s despite an elderly population with a low vaccination rate and those that were inoculated, underprotected with inferior Chinese vaccines.

To make it worse, there has been a massive movement of people for Lunar New Year, spreading the coronavirus like a bushfire.

While in the short term, the population and the economy are both suffering, many experts agree in the long run, China will be better off moving into the post-COVID era like its western counterparts did a year ago.

Even diplomatically, Beijing has taken a more conciliatory stance towards the rest of the world, declaring the country “open for business” at the Davos economic conference this month.

Can Canberra and Beijing get along again?

So which ASX shares might rise from China’s reopening?

Tribeca portfolio manager Jun Bei Liu, speaking at a GSFM briefing on Tuesday, had some ideas.

“We do have a few other core holdings where it’s been the China reopening beneficiary, the likes of A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) and Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE), which we held for many years.”

Treasury Wine was devastated in 2020 after a diplomatic spat between Australia and China over an enquiry into the origins of the pandemic.

Beijing, as retaliation, slapped a massive tariff on Australian wine imports, which effectively killed Treasury’s Chinese business overnight.

But just as fast as that downturn, Liu can potentially see an instant tailwind coming.

“Treasury Wine is interesting because now there’s a rumour of [the] relationship thawing between Australia and China,” she said.

“If there’s any positive news on reduction of the tariff they put on the Australian wine that was 100% — even if you reduce to 50%, maybe it just means that there’ll be a whole lot of wine that can be sold.”

At current levels, Liu feels like the Treasury shares haven’t yet priced in this enormous potential in China.

“You have an earnings upgrade of between 15 to 20% for that company just on the basis of [a tariff reduction]. The share price hasn’t really reflected that yet.”

Chinese citizens are ready to break out

A2 Milk also took a massive earnings hit in 2020 as the lack of international travel put an end to its daigou (Chinese expatriate) sales channel.

As Chinese citizens are allowed more freedom of movement, the dairy producer could cash in big time in the coming months.

“Chinese students will return — then your whole daigou channel is going to take place again.”

Another beneficiary of the Chinese resurgence could be international student placement provider IDP Education Ltd (ASX: IEL).

Its share price has already climbed 45% since June.

“It’s done very well, but still the students [have] yet to fully return.”

Liu did warn that it’s not a matter of buying up every stock that does business with China.

“There’s a lot of pockets of opportunity. You just got to find them and it’s very much bottom-up [analysis],” she said.

“Top-down, it’s harder to really see the opportunity… You need to find individual stocks and [their] earnings.”

The post 3 ASX shares to cash in on China’s reopening to the world: Jun Bei Liu appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended IDP Education. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended A2 Milk and Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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