What Goldman Sachs new oil price forecast could mean for ASX 200 oil shares in 2023

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) oil shares are broadly trailing the benchmark index today.

At the time of writing, the ASX 200 is down 1.23%.

As for the big oil and gas stocks, the Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) share price has dropped 2.53% while Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares are currently down 3.07%.

This comes amid another leg down for the oil price over the weekend.

On Friday, Brent crude oil was trading for US$74.70 per barrel. Today that same barrel is worth US$72.91, down 2.4%.

ASX 200 oil shares, as you’d expect, are greatly impacted by the price of the black gold they pump from the ground.

And the past few weeks haven’t been kind to global oil prices, which have been hammered to 15-month lows in the wake of a series of banking collapses in the United States and Europe.

Which brings us to the latest crude oil price forecast from Goldman Sachs.

Where to now for ASX 200 oil shares?

Goldman Sachs had been forecasting Brent crude prices to rise to US$100 per barrel towards the latter half of 2023.

But with the recent bank turmoil and sharp retrace in crude prices, the broker has scaled back that prediction.

“Oil prices have plunged despite the China demand boom given banking stress, recession fears, and an exodus of investor flows,” Goldman stated (courtesy of Bloomberg).

”Historically, after such scarring events, positioning and prices recover only gradually, especially long-dated prices.” 

Goldman Sachs’ analysts are now forecasting that Brent crude will hit US$94 per barrel over the coming 12 months and US$97 per barrel in the second half of 2024.

While that’s a significant downward revision, the broker still expects the oil price to increase by some 29% over the year. Which should offer ASX 200 oil shares some heady tailwinds.

Santos and Woodside share price snapshots

With the oil price in retreat in retreat in 2023, both ASX 200 oil shares have dipped into the red in the new year.

As you can see in the charts below, the Santos share price is down just over 5% since the closing bell on 31 December while Woodside shares have fallen 12.3%.

But if Brent crude prices rebound to US$94 per barrel as Goldman Sachs expects, the story could be quite different come Christmas time.

The post What Goldman Sachs new oil price forecast could mean for ASX 200 oil shares in 2023 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• With oil below $75 per barrel, what’s next for the Woodside share price?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• ASX 200 oil stocks are tanking. Is now the time to buy?
• Why Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, BHP, IPH, and Woodside shares are dropping

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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