An economist’s expectations for coronavirus and beyond

It’s not exactly breaking news to say we’re in the middle of a health pandemic.

And you don’t have to be a rocket surgeon to know that the economy has taken an almighty hit, as a result.

The good news — the good lord willing and the creeks don’t rise — is that the actions of the authorities (and maybe not just a little good fortune) mean the virus is largely controlled, and we’re on track to getting back to life-as-somewhat-normal, including a staged reopening of the economy.

I’ve never been afraid to have a dig at either side of politics, if they’ve deserved it, but the handling of this crisis — unlike the bushfires — has been very good. Sure, hindsight is 20/20, and there are things that could have been done differently, but the PM and Premiers have done a very good job.

What has been impressive is not only the actions taken, but the public presentation. In my (limited!) travels and conversations, people seem reassured and prepared to do their bit. Leadership is, in no small part, about being seen, and heard, and our state and federal leaders have done very well.

Which — and let’s not understate the importance of this — means we, as a country, can now turn our attention to the recovery, while others are still dealing with the fallout.

The reopening must be slow. It must be staged, and carefully calibrated. We’ve seen, from South Korea, what happens if we move too quickly: soon after bars and nightclubs were reopened, 27 people have tested positive from as little as one infected person spreading the virus. Bars and nightclubs are now closed again, there.

But just how sick is our economy?

What do governments need to do, now?

And what will the recovery look like?

Of course, I have a view. And I like to think it’s a reasonably informed one.

But I’m not an ex-chief economist of a Big 4 bank.

The good news is that Warren Hogan is!

Now Industry Professor at UTS, Warren has been an active participant in watching, modelling and commenting on the economy for his whole working life, in a number of different roles.

Warren had previously joined me for one of our most popular podcast episodes ever, earlier this year. At the time, if anyone was talking about Coronavirus, it was as a small, localised issue in China.

Almost four months later, to the day, it’s an understatement to say that things have changed.

So he’s back!

Warren was kind enough to agree to chat to me again late last week, and it was a fascinating conversation.

Some of my views were confirmed. He politely disagreed with others. I learned a lot.

It was a great conversation, and I think you’re really going to enjoy listening.

Warren touched on how he sees the economy right now, what he thinks the government should do next and, importantly, how he sees the recovery from here.

If you’re interested in the economic circumstances we’re in, and what the recovery might look like, you’re going to want to take a listen.

In short — you don’t want to miss it.

If you’re reading this on an iPhone, you can find a link to the podcast, here.

If you’re using an Android phone (or you’re reading this on a computer) just open your favourite podcast app and search ‘Triple M Motley Fool Money’. Warren’s episode was published last Thursday afternoon. If you need a suggestion for an Android-based podcast app, I use Pocketcasts. You can find it on the Google Play Store here.

(And, of course, don’t forget to subscribe while you’re there — we think you’ll like what’s coming up, so you don’t want to miss it!)

Have a great week, Fools!

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Motley Fool contributor Scott Phillips has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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