Hoping to dig into the monster New Hope dividend? Here’s what you need to know

The New Hope Corporation Limited (ASX: NHC) share price will be on watch today as the ASX 200 coal share prepares to take its latest dividends off the table.

On Monday, New Hope shares will be trading without entitlements to the company’s recently-declared monster dividend.

This includes a final dividend of 31 cents per share and a special dividend of 25 cents per share, both of which are fully franked.

With New Hope shares turning ex-dividend for this payment on Monday, today will be the last day to snap up these dividends, which will be paid on 8 November.

Since New Hope doesn’t have a dividend reinvestment plan (DRP), shareholders will have no choice but to receive this payment in cash.

Any New Hope shares purchased after today won’t lay claim to these latest dividends.

But to compensate investors, New Hope will likely be deep in the red on Monday as the value of these dividends leaves the share price.

These latest dividends alone represent a yield of 8.1%, so there’ll be a lot of downwards pressure on the New Hope share price to start the week.

How did New Hope perform in FY22?

New Hope operates on a slightly different financial calendar than most of the ASX. Its financial year ends on 31 July. So, New Hope handed in its full-year FY22 results last month.

It was a bumper set of results, supported by sky-high coal prices which have surged on the back of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

These results were headlined by a 143% jump in revenue, which hit $2.6 billion, and a 1,139% increase in profit, which came in at $983 million.

Interestingly, New Hope’s production slumped by 18% in FY22, producing 7.9 million tonnes of saleable coal. The company’s operations were impacted by periods of unusually high rainfall throughout the year, along with COVID-related workforce shortages.

However, such was the strength in coal prices that New Hope delivered eye-watering financial growth. 

New Hope’s average realised prices surged from $101.36/tonne in FY21 to $281.84/tonne in FY22, an increase of 176%. Its average realised price in the fourth quarter came in at a whopping $493.52/tonne. 

This helped the ASX 200 coal miner to declare fully franked dividends of 86 cents per share in FY22, up a mammoth 681% compared to the total dividends of 11 cents declared in FY21.

Based on current prices and including special dividends, New Hope shares are spinning up a monster trailing dividend yield of 12.5%. With the benefit of franking credits, this yield cranks up to 17.8%.

What do brokers think about New Hope shares?

New Hope has been a standout performer on the ASX this year, rocketing nearly 200%. It’s kept the party going in recent months, taking out the title as the ASX 200’s best performer in September with a 28% gain. However, some brokers are wary. 

In the wake of New Hope’s FY22 results, Citi maintained its sell rating on New Hope shares and left its price target unchanged at $3. This implies a potential downside of 56% over the next 12 months. Citi’s sell rating is based on valuation grounds.

Goldman Sachs is also bearish. The broker currently has a sell rating on New Hope shares but its price target is higher than Citi’s, coming in at $4.40. This implies a potential downside of 36% over the next 12 months. Goldman’s rating is also based on valuation grounds, along with its view that New Hope’s Bengalla thermal coal mine has only modest production growth potential.

On the flip side, Morgans is fighting for the bulls. Analysts recently retained their add rating on New Hope shares and lifted their 12-month price target to $7.20, implying a potential upside of 4%. The broker’s positive view is being driven by higher-than-expected coal prices. Morgans also sees the potential Associated Water License (AWL) approval at the Acland coal mine as an underrated catalyst for the New Hope share price.

The post Hoping to dig into the monster New Hope dividend? Here’s what you need to know appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cathryn Goh has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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