ASX bank shares have climbed higher in the first few weeks of July as expectations of lower interest rates and stable earnings expectations pique investor interest.  

Escalating geopolitical tensions and continued commodity price volatility have prompted many investors to rotate towards large ASX bank stocks for their long-standing dividends and predictable earnings.

But going forward, some bank shares are expected to fare better than others.

Here’s a rundown of how the four major ASX bank shares are tracking today, and what brokers expect next.

Hold ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares

ANZ shares have tumbled into the red on Tuesday. At the time of writing, the shares are down around 1.5% and changing hands at $35.94. ANZ shares are still nearly 2% higher so far in July, and are around 19% higher than this time last year.

The banking giant posted a positive half-year update in May, including a 70% jump in its cash profit and 22% lower operating expenses.

ANZ also confirmed it has achieved 49% of its gross cost-savings target of $800 million for FY26.

Brokers are relatively optimistic about ANZ shares for FY27. TradingView data shows that 7 of 16 analysts have a hold rating on the stock. Another six have a buy or strong buy rating while three have a sell or strong sell rating.

The average $34.91 target price, however, implies a potential 3% downside at the time of writing.

Sell Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares

CBA shares are also tumbling on Tuesday, down around 1% to $169 a piece. The shares have climbed nearly 3% so far in July, but are around 5% below levels seen this time last year.

It’s been a volatile few months for the banking giant. The bank’s most recent disappointing third-quarter capital update in mid-May caused some investor confidence to wane. The bank reported a flat operating income and 1% decline in unaudited cash NPAT.

But every time CBA shares fall, they seem to quickly rebound again. It’s likely CBA’s safe-haven appeal that continues to appeal to investors. In times of market chaos, investors typically flock to well-known and large-scale stocks.

The problem is that CBA shares have been widely considered overvalued for some time now. CBA is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of over 26, making it one of the most expensive banking stocks globally. The bumper price tag isn’t supported by the bank’s core strength or earnings either.

TradingView data shows the majority (11 out of 16) of analysts have a strong sell rating on CBA shares. Another three rate the stock as a sell, and two rate it as a hold. The average $126.51 target price implies more than 25% downside ahead, at the time of writing.

Hold National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares

NAB shares are down around 1% on Tuesday and are trading at $39.63 each. The banking giant’s shares are one of the best performers among the big four so far in July, though, up around 5% in the first two weeks of the month. The shares are roughly flat on the trading level this time last year.

NAB’s half-year FY26 results in May were a miss versus market expectations, and investors reacted negatively. Despite posting a modest earnings growth, including a 6.4% increase in underlying profit and a 3.1% increase in revenue, the share price sell-off accelerated. 

Intense mortgage competition has also put pressure on the bank’s profit margins and raised concerns about future earnings.

The share price has rebounded slightly from a dip in mid-June, most likely reflecting slightly improved market sentiment. But the experts are still cautious.

TradingView data shows that eight out of 16 analysts now rate the ASX bank stock as a hold. Another five have a sell or strong sell rating, and three rate NAB shares as a strong buy. The average $37.72 target price, however, now implies a potential 5% downside, at the time of writing.

Sell Westpac Banking Corporation Ltd (ASX: WBC) shares

Westpac shares are also down around 1% at the time of writing, to $36.50 a piece. The bank shares are around 4% higher so far in July and around 9% higher than 12 months ago.

Westpac posted a solid first-half result in early May. There was a brief share price uptick after the result was announced, but then investor sentiment reversed, and the sell-off resumed. 

The bank’s shares came under even more selling pressure after a court ruling related to ongoing compliance risk weighed on sentiment. 

Westpac is the most mortgage-exposed of the big four bank shares, with approximately 69% of its loan book in residential mortgages. So, while forecasts of lower interest rates are positive news for the bank, its shares have been depressed by earlier hike announcements. 

TradingView data shows that analysts are quite pessimistic about Westpac’s outlook over the next year. The majority (nine out of 16) have a sell or strong sell rating on the bank shares. Another seven have a hold rating. The average $33.41 target price implies a potential downside of around 9% at the time of writing. 

The post ANZ, NAB, Westpac and CBA shares: Brokers rate 2 a sell, and 2 a hold appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here’s the earnings forecast out to 2027 for ANZ shares
• Are CBA shares still worth buying for the long term?
• How to build a successful ASX dividend portfolio
• What did the market look like 10 years ago? Here’s what’s changed for the ASX 200
• 3 of the best ASX dividend stocks to supplement your superannuation

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Owning ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares usually means getting a good level of passive income. But can it deliver earnings growth? That could be essential for whether the ANZ share price rises or not in the next year or two.

The ASX bank share has been working hard to reduce its cost base, be more efficient, and deliver good performance with its market share.

ANZ has a lot of competition in the banking space, who all want market share, including Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), and so on.

A lot of competition may be a headwind for the bank in terms of both growing market share and a strong net interest margin (NIM). But that hasn’t stopped ANZ from generating strong profit growth in the near term.

FY26

The 2026 financial year has finished for many companies, but for ANZ, it doesn’t finish until 30 September 2026.

The latest update we’ve heard from the bank was very promising for what the FY26 result could reveal.

In HY26, compared to the second half of FY25, ANZ reported in cash profit terms that operating income grew 3% and operating expenses fell 22%, leading to profit before provisions jumping 51%. It also noted that the (loan) provision charge reduced 7% and the cash profit soared 70%.

However, some of those numbers received a large boost due to ‘significant items’. Excluding significant items, operating income was flat, operating expenses dropped 9%, profit before provisions grew 12%, and cash profit rose 14%. Customer deposits increased by 3%, while net loans and advances fell by 1%.

I think any of Australia’s domestic banks (excluding Macquarie) would be delighted to report double-digit net profit growth.

The bank is forecast to grow its earnings per share (EPS) in FY26, according to the projection on CommSec. The EPS could reach $2.559 in the 2026 financial year, putting the ASX bank share’s valuation at around 14 times FY26’s estimated earnings.

FY27

I think it’s a great sign to see a business grow earnings, as that’s what justifies higher share prices and larger dividends.

The bank is forecast to deliver earnings growth in the 2027 financial year. However, the current projection is not very exciting.

According to the estimate on CommSec, the ASX bank share is projected to very slightly increase its EPS to $2.561 in FY27. In other words, profit is forecast to be virtually flat. That would mean it’s trading at 14 times FY27’s estimated earnings as well.

The CommSec collation of analyst opinions on the business revealed there are currently two sell ratings, eight hold ratings, and six buy ratings. The experts are more positive than negative, though there could be even better opportunities out there.

The post Here’s the earnings forecast out to 2027 for ANZ shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here’s the dividend forecast out to 2027 for ANZ shares
• How much do I need in my superannuation to get $50k per year in passive income?
• How many Westpac shares do I need to buy for $10,000 of passive income?
• 5 best ASX 200 financial shares of FY26
• 9 ASX 200 shares with renewed buy ratings for FY27

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) shares have skipped further into the red in Tuesday morning trade.

At the time of writing, the shares are down around another 2% to $68.58 a piece. At one point this morning, the shares were changing hands as low as $68.48 each. 

This morning’s losses extend yesterday’s 4.3% decline. 

It’s been a long line of share price declines for the ASX tech company over the past year. Since spiking to an all-time high of $193.77 a piece in June 2025, the shares have shed a huge 64% of their value.

They’re now down around 38% for the year to date and 59% lower than this time a year ago.

What happened to Xero shares?

Xero shares have faced several major headwinds over the past 12 months. 

The continually falling share price is mostly the result of a sector-wide sell-off of technology stocks. This followed rising concerns that AI could disrupt traditional software models. 

In late 2025 and early 2026, many investors were spooked by the idea that smarter, cheaper tools could reduce the need for subscription platforms like Xero. Sentiment for tech shares, including Xero, quickly turned south. 

At the same time, a sharp increase in the value of some ASX tech shares in 2025, including Xero, also sparked concerns that tech companies were overvalued and overdue for a price correction. 

The good news is that despite the continued stock sell-off, there is still enormous potential for Xero and its shares over the next 12 months.

Xero benefits from an incredibly sticky subscription base and high customer retention rates, which means its revenue is relatively stable. 

As a relatively small market player, it also has a lot of growth potential. Xero is working to expand its presence in the UK and the US. It is also focused on expanding its product suite, including payroll and workflow automation offerings. 

What do brokers tip for the ASX tech stock next?

Market Index data shows that the majority of brokers are very bullish on Xero shares and have a buy rating on the stock. The average target price of $145.69 implies an impressive 112% upside at the time of writing.

TradingView data shows something very similar. The majority of analysts have a strong buy rating on Xero shares. They have a slightly lower $130.12 average target price, but that still implies a potential 85% upside ahead.

Some are even more optimistic and forecast the shares to rocket another 237% to a maximum target price of $237.38.

Last month, Morgans upgraded the stock from hold to add and assigned a $215 price target. The broker cited improving sales momentum and disciplined cost management. 

The post Here’s what brokers tip for Xero shares over the next 12 months appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here’s what $10,000 invested in ASX tech shares 5 years ago would be worth now
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• Another CEO share sale has this ASX 100 tech stock sinking today
• 10 fantastic ASX shares to buy for FY27
• Two ASX tech shares hinge on rebuilding trust and growth. Here’s how they can turn around

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.