ASX bank share Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) has seen plenty of volatility in the past year, as the chart below shows.

I think this is a good time to ask whether Australia’s largest bank is attractive or overvalued, considering it’s down 8% from mid-April.

For such a large business, that’s a significant reduction of the market capitalisation in dollar terms.

After everything that’s happened, let’s take a look and see if the ASX bank share is attractive according to experts.

Can the CBA share price rise from here?

The company has a long-term track record of delivering earnings growth, which is a great tailwind for share price gains.

Commonwealth Bank has managed to deliver good returns for investors through its connection with its customers. The bank has a high level of loans originating through proprietary channels, which helps its market share and net interest margin (NIM).

But being a high-performer may not necessarily help the CBA share price in the near-term, with headwinds like taxation changes and higher interest rates hurting potential loan demand.

Now let’s consider what could happen with the ASX bank share. Analysts sometimes put a price target on a business, which is where analysts think the business could be trading within 12 months.

According to CMC Invest, there have been eight analyst ratings on the business in the last three months. All of those ratings were a sell.

The average price target for CBA shares is $120.69 of those eight analysts, suggesting the business could fall by close to 30% within the next year. In other words, experts still think the ASX bank share is significantly overvalued.

The most optimistic price target is $144.40, implying a possible 14% decline. The most negative price target is $90, implying a potential decline of around 47% from its level at the time of writing.

Commonwealth Bank valuation

According to the projection on CMC Invest, the CBA share price is valued at 26x FY26’s estimated earnings.

The business is still forecast to grow earnings in both the 2027 financial years and 2028 financial year, but the pace of the earnings growth is expected to be slow.

In FY27, its net profit is only expected to rise by 5.4%. In FY28, the net profit is forecast to grow earnings by just 1.3%.

In terms of the dividend, the FY26 CBA grossed-up dividend yield could be 4.3%, including franking credits, at the time of writing.

I don’t think Commonwealth Bank shares are the best place to invest new cash right now; other opportunities seem more appealing.

The post How much could the CBA share price rise in the next year? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX dividend stock Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK) has fallen 37% from its peak less than six months ago.

I love buying dividend-paying shares when their valuations decline because we can get a lower price and a higher dividend yield.

For example, if a business has a dividend yield of 5% and then the share price falls 10%, the dividend yield becomes 5.5%. That’s a noticeably better passive income return, just because we bought during a dip.

The Nick Scali share price is down 37% – investors can get a much better dividend yield now.

I think the ASX dividend stock is a great buy today for a few different reasons.

Opportunistic time to buy

It’s understandable that retail shares go through volatility because of how economic conditions can change, affecting consumer spending and investor confidence.

Higher interest rates may well mean that demand for mid-range furniture declines during this period, but I don’t think conditions will remain negative forever, which is why this could be a good time to invest opportunistically.

It’s not often that the business falls by more than a third, but those large declines have proven to be good times to buy for the longer-term as the business grows.

The company’s existing store network can see like-for-like sales grow in reasonable conditions, but the store network expansion is helping increase its underlying value as time goes by, even as the share price moves up and down.

Store expansion

As of December 2025, the business had 64 Nick Scali stores across Australia and New Zealand and 46 Plush stores in Australia.

The company says there’s a long-term opportunity to reach 86 Nick Scali stores in Australia and New Zealand, as well as between 90 to 100 Plush stores across Australia and New Zealand. In other words, its overall ANZ network could grow from 110 to up to between 180 to 200 stores.

On top of that, the company recently expanded into the UK after acquiring Fabb Furniture. It’s now rebranding those stores to Nick Scali. The UK has a much bigger population than Australia, so there’s plenty of room for growth there too.

For now, the ASX dividend stock has around 20 stores in the UK and the business has a long-term opportunity of between 60 to 70 UK stores. With how the business is selling Nick Scali furniture to UK stores, the UK segment’s gross profit margin is rapidly rising.

The UK business saw total January written sales of $6.7 million, with four refurbished stores achieving LFL store written sales growth of 32% compared to the prior corresponding period.

Better dividend yield

According to Commsec, for FY26, the business is projected to pay an annual dividend per share of 68.7 cents – that translates into a grossed-up dividend yield of 6.1%, including franking credits.

The dividend is forecast to grow even further by FY28, with a possible annual payout of 76.9 cents per share. That translates into a grossed-up dividend yield of 6.8%, including franking credits.

Overall, the future looks positive for dividend investors.

Cheaper valuation

It’s clear that the ASX dividend stock is cheaper – it has dropped by more than a third. But what earnings multiple is it now trading at?

According to the forecast on Commsec, the Nick Scali share price is valued at 19x FY26’s estimated earnings and 16x FY27’s estimated earnings.

I think this is a great time to invest in the ASX dividend stock, though it’s not the only ASX share that looks good value today.

The post 1 ASX dividend stock down 37% I’d buy right now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nick Scali. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB) shares could be seriously undervalued.

That’s the view of the team at Bell Potter, which remains very bullish on the biotechnology company’s shares.

What is Bell Potter saying?

Bell Potter was pleased to see that Mesoblast’s Ryoncil product is building momentum. This saw Mesoblast report sales in line with the mid point of its guidance range. It said:

MSB has reported 4Q26 revenues of US$36m (+20% vs 3Q26) in line with our forecast. FY26 revenues for Ryoncil totalled US$115m which is the mid point of guidance (i.e. US$110m – $120m). The full year result represents an outstanding result considering the product was launched from a standing start in April 2025, prior to broad reimbursement availability. 

Commercial adoption has been exceptionally strong and has continued to grow as barriers to adoption have fallen away – particularly for reimbursement. We expect Group revenues for FY26 of US$121m inclusive of Temcel royalties (Japan).

Looking ahead, the good news is the broker continues to believe that sales will grow strongly in FY 2027. It adds:

Our forecast for FY27 Ryoncil sales remains bullish at US$275m relative to the annualised exit rate of US$144m. The implied quarterly growth rate is ~27% compounding. We continue to believe this is achievable given the progress in recent months on two key fronts: a) expansion of the key account manager team servicing this market – 6 additional FTEs being hired to service large markets in the north eastern US and California; and b) MSB has only recently begun to gain traction with the very largest transplant centres in the US, both on the east and west coast. 

The forecast also includes a small revenue stream from off label use amongst young adults, where some payers have reimbursed hospitals for off label use in isolated cases following patients failing on SOC for SR aGvHD. For these reasons, we retain our FY27 forecast.

Mesoblast shares tipped to double

According to the note, Bell Potter has effectively upgraded Mesoblast shares to a buy rating (from speculative buy) and held firm with its $4.45 price target. This is approximately double its current share price. It concludes:

MSB is expected to commence submission of the various modules of the Biological Licence Application for Rexlemestrocel-L in heart failure and commence recruitment of the adult study in GvHD (for Ryoncil). We expect MSB will also engage in preliminary discussions with distributors for Rexlemestrocel-L in the chronic lower back pain indication, ahead of the phase 3 readout in mid CY27. 

Investment thesis: TP $4.45 (unchanged) There are no changes to earnings and we retain our $4.45 target price and Buy rating. As MSB is generating strong revenue growth the Speculative risk rating is no longer warranted.

The post Why Mesoblast shares could double in value appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.