Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) shares are pushing higher again on Monday.

At the time of writing, the Wesfarmers share price is up 1.41% to $90.96. Today’s gain takes its rise in 2026 to around 12%.

The stock is also trading only about 4% below its 52-week high of $95.18.

There haven’t been any new company announcements today. However, Macquarie has lifted its price target by 1.2% to $86.

While the increase is positive, the new target still sits below the current share price.

So, has the market pushed Wesfarmers shares too far?

Why have Wesfarmers shares climbed?

The recent results help explain why the share price has kept climbing.

Wesfarmers reported a 3.1% increase in first-half revenue to $24.21 billion, while net profit rose 9.3% to $1.60 billion. The fully-franked interim dividend also increased 7.4% to $1.02 per share.

Bunnings remained the largest contributor, with earnings rising 5% to $1.39 billion. Kmart Group earnings increased 6.1% to $683 million.

Returns on capital (ROC) were around 70% at both businesses, which remains one of Wesfarmers’ biggest strengths.

Nonetheless, Wesfarmers is still looking for more growth. Bunnings has expanded into categories including tools, workwear, rural products, and automotive accessories. Kmart has kept expanding its Anko range and opened more joint venture stores in the Philippines.

Management said in February that its retail businesses had continued trading well through the first 6 weeks of the second half.

Brokers remain cautious

The share price now sits well above most broker forecasts.

Macquarie’s new $86 target is one of the higher recent estimates, but it still sits around 5.5% below the current share price.

Goldman Sachs and CLSA both have $78 targets, while Citi is more bearish with a $69 target.

Most analysts remain cautious. Investing.com currently shows an average 12-month price target of $76.36, around 16% below today’s price, along with an overall sell consensus.

The valuation is another reason for the caution. Wesfarmers trades on a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.7 times and offers a dividend yield of about 2.8%.

What does the chart show?

Momentum remains strong, although the stock is nearing overbought territory.

Wesfarmers has a relative strength index (RSI) reading of 68, just below the level of 70 generally viewed as overbought.

The share price is also above the middle Bollinger Band at around $88.48. The 52-week high near $95.18 is the next resistance level, while the $88 to $90 area is the nearest support zone.

Wesfarmers is still producing solid earnings, but the share price now leaves less room for a weak result.

The full-year result on 27 August will show whether earnings are keeping pace with the share price.

The post Up 12% in 2026! Are Wesfarmers shares now too expensive? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group, Macquarie Group, and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is trading lower on Monday as another jump in oil prices weighs on global markets.

At the time of writing, the benchmark index is down 0.38% to 8,772 points after briefly moving above 8,820 earlier in the session.

The selling is spread across much of the market, with 118 ASX 200 shares trading lower, compared with 75 in positive territory and 7 stocks unchanged.

However, gains from the major banks and several energy shares are helping keep the decline from becoming much larger.

Here’s what is behind today’s fall.

Oil jump rattles global markets

The latest weakness follows another escalation in the conflict between the United States and Iran over the weekend.

Brent crude oil futures have climbed around 4% to more than US$79 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading above US$74.

Concerns remain centred on the Strait of Hormuz and the potential disruption to energy shipments through the key waterway.

The oil rise is also adding to inflation concerns and has pushed US futures lower ahead of Monday night’s session.

S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) futures are down 0.48%, while Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) futures are falling 1.12%.

Asian markets are also mostly lower. South Korea’s Kospi has dropped around 5%, while Japan’s Nikkei is down more than 1%.

Tech, healthcare and miners in the red

The weaker global lead is hitting several of the ASX 200’s larger growth and resources stocks.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) shares are down 3.57% to $70.78, while WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) has tumbled 2.32% to $33.21.

ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD) shares have dropped 5.53% to $28.37, and CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) is 0.94% lower at $121.73.

The major miners are also weighing on the index. BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are down 0.70% to $57.87, while Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) has slipped 0.58% to $163.53.

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) is among the heavier fallers, sinking 4.12% to $57.24.

Consumer staples are also lower. Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares are down 1.07% to $39.73, while Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) has dipped 1.66% to $23.17.

Banks and energy shares provide support

The ASX 200 would be much lower without support from the major banks.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are up 0.26% to $169.30. Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) has added 0.30% to $36.65, National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) is 0.43% higher at $39.78, and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) has gained 0.69% to $36.30.

Higher oil prices are also helping some energy stocks. Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares are up 0.33% to $29.15.

The post ASX 200 drops as soaring oil prices rattle global markets appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL, ResMed, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group and CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

One of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO)’s biggest energy stocks is having a rough start to the week.

AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL) shares are down 5.10% to $8.01 today after the electricity provider was hit with a broker downgrade.

The decline leaves the AGL share price down almost 14% since the beginning of 2026 and around 16% over the past 12 months.

The selling follows a warning that weak wholesale electricity prices could delay the company’s earnings recovery for several years.

Here’s more on that detail.

Macquarie cuts its rating

According to The Australian, Macquarie has downgraded AGL shares from neutral to underperform and cut its price target by 12% to $7.75.

The new target sits below Friday’s closing price of $8.44 and is also slightly lower than where the stock is trading today.

Macquarie believes the electricity market remains too well supplied, with wholesale power prices sitting near 5-year lows. Mild weather, additional battery storage, and growing output from wind and solar projects have all contributed to the softer pricing environment.

The broker noted that the number of hours with prices above $300 per megawatt-hour across the National Electricity Market fell 70% during the June quarter compared with a year earlier.

AGL’s longer-term outlook weakens

Macquarie now expects wholesale power prices to recover in FY31, 2 years later than its previous FY29 forecast.

The broker reportedly cut its FY28 earnings forecast by 25% and lowered its FY29 estimate by 72%. It believes AGL’s earnings could fall back to 2021 levels by FY28.

Macquarie’s weaker outlook also takes into account the impact of data centres, which are often seen as a major source of future electricity demand. However, the broker believes this extra demand could keep coal-fired power stations operating for longer and attract more renewable generation.

This could leave the electricity market oversupplied for longer and delay a recovery in wholesale prices.

The risk would grow if the planned closures of Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG)’s Eraring power station and AGL’s Bayswater facility are delayed.

AGL’s upcoming results in focus

The downgrade comes even after AGL lifted the lower end of its FY26 guidance in May.

The company now expects underlying EBITDA of between $2.06 billion and $2.18 billion. Underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) is forecast to come in between $610 million and $680 million.

AGL said improved plant availability, steadier consumer margins, and disciplined cost management had supported the stronger outlook.

Management also warned that FY27 could include lower wholesale prices in some regions and softer market conditions.

AGL will provide its FY27 guidance when it releases its full-year results on 12 August.

The post Why this ASX 200 energy stock is crashing 5% on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.