Yesterday, the Amaysim Australia Ltd (ASX: AYS) share price was making headlines after the company responded to media speculation regarding the potential sale of its energy business, causing shares to surge.

The Amaysim share price is charging higher again today but for a different reason. For some background, Amaysim is a subscription utility provider, delivering mobile and energy plans to customers around the country. The company launched in 2010 and is Australia’s fourth-largest mobile service provider.

What did Amaysim announce?

This morning, Amaysim announced it has signed a binding agreement to acquire ~77,000 mobile subscribers from mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) OVO Mobile.

OVO is the largest independently-owned, asset-light Australian MVNO, other than Amaysim. It uses the Optus network, like Amaysim, and offers pre-paid plans on a month-to-month basis without any lock-in contracts.

Amaysim expects the transaction to be completed “imminently” and for a maximum consideration of $15.8 million.

More than 74,000 of the acquired subscribers are recurring, thus accelerating one of Amaysim’s strategic initiatives to grow its recurring mobile subscriber base. This takes Amaysim’s recurring mobile subscriber base to 821,000 as at 31 May 2020, up from 726,000 as at 20 February 2020. Including the non-recurring subscribers acquired from OVO, Amaysim’s total mobile subscriber base was 1.17 million as at 31 May 2020.

For some more context, at 31 December 2019, Amaysim had 706,000 recurring mobile subscribers and 1.05 million total subscribers.

Amaysim expects to complete the migration of OVO subscribers in less than 4 months. The company has experience in this area after recently migrating around 42,000 Jeenee subscribers in less than 3 months. 

Amaysim expects the acquisition to be earnings accretive in FY21, with an increased earnings contribution in FY22 and beyond. It will be funded by a mixture of debt and cash reserves.

Guidance update

Along with the OVO acquisition, Amaysim also shed some light on its guidance for FY20. In spite of the challenges currently facing the economy, the company is pleased with the performance of the overall energy and mobile businesses in the second half of FY20.

On the energy front, Amaysim reported 209,000 energy subscribers as at 31 May 2020, up from 201,000 as at 31 December 2019.

The company confirmed it is on track to achieve full-year underlying EBITDA within the guidance range of $33 million to $39 million.

The Amaysim share price jumped 15.27% at the open and is currently sitting 18.06% higher at the time of writing at 42.5 cents per share.

More reading

• Why Amaysim, Bingo, Brickworks, & BlueScope are pushing higher today
• Amaysim share price flies 22% higher after confirming interest in its energy business

Motley Fool contributor Cathryn Goh has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post Amaysim share price soars 18% on mobile subscriber acquisition appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

from Motley Fool Australia https://ift.tt/2BmrbRW

Is the Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) share price a buy?

The Westpac share price has risen by 12.3% over the past two weeks. Not bad for a business that a lot of investors are counting out.

I suppose the market is simply saying that the Westpac’s troubles won’t be quite as bad as previously expected.

The Westpac share price is still down 40% compared to where it was before. That’s a large decline. There have been quite a few leadership changes within Westpac recently. Hopefully that’s a positive sign of renewal rather than anything else.

It’s not too surprising that the Westpac share price has dropped so hard. The recent Westpac FY20 half-year result outlined a number of the issues.

The statutory profit dropped 62% to $1.19 billion and cash earnings were down 70% to $993 million. When you exclude notable items, cash profit was still down 44%.

A significant part of the decline came about from higher impairment charges due to COVID-19. Westpac’s provisions for expected credit losses increased to $5.8 billion which included $1.6 billion of additional impairment charges predominately related to COVID-19 impacts.

Another problem that Westpac provisioned for is the upcoming AUSTRAC penalty. The bank has provisioned $900 million. Some don’t think that’s a big enough number.

What will cause the Westpac share price to rise further?

The recent news that not as many people are on jobkeeper as previously expected was positive. That’s a good sign for the overall economy and it hopefully means there would be less bad debts for the bank. That’s seemingly what caused the Westpac share price to rise over the past fortnight.

But beyond that, investors are waiting for more signs of a recovery for the banking sector. We’re still quite early into this crisis. Australia has been fortunate compared to most places in the world when it comes to the spread of the coronavirus. It will take a while for the full effect of the restrictions to be felt economically across the country.

The rest of the world is still going through the pandemic, so there could be more economic pain to wash through the global economy. Westpac will also have to come to terms with the very low interest rate which may harm the net interest margin (NIM) for some time.

How long will it take the Westpac share price to return to above $25? It could take a very long time. But if Australia’s banking system is safer than expected, there could be a bit more value at the current level. I’m not making that bet yet though.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• ASX 200 down 0.1%: Big four banks drag ASX lower ahead of RBA meeting
• How to value the big four ASX banks
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• I don’t normally buy ETFs, but I would buy these 2

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post Is the Westpac share price a buy? appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

from Motley Fool Australia https://ift.tt/2BsBTGJ

Its larger rivals have been stealing the spotlight from the Vocus Group Ltd (ASX: VOC) share price. But this may be about to change this month.

This is the prediction by Morgan Stanley, which is tipping a re-rating in the telecom services group’s share price when management provides an update in June.

If that comes to pass, it will be Vocus’ turn to have its 15 minutes in the sunshine. Investors are preoccupied with the merger of TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPM) and Vodafone Australia, and the impact of that on the Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS) share price.

Debt and earnings update

The cloud hanging over Vocus is the state of its balance sheet. Management is scheduled to provide an update on the refinancing of its $1.1 billion debt facility before the end of the month.

Morgan Stanley believes it will use the opportunity to update the market on its underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) guidance too.

Vocus reiterated its FY20 EBITDA forecast of between $359 million and $379 million back in February at its half year results announcement. This compares to the average broker estimate of $367 million.

“For perspective, the last time VOC refinanced their debt, in Apr 2018, VOC shares rallied +21% over the next three weeks (vs. XJO +4%), as the risk of an equity raising was reduced,” said Morgan Stanley.

XJO refers to the S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO).

Best outcome

There are three potential outcomes from the upcoming Vocus update, according to the broker. Firstly, Vocus will successfully refinance its debt and reaffirm its EBITDA guidance.

This will lift market confidence in both its financial health and FY21 outlook with consensus pencilling in a $388 million figure.

Two other scenarios

The second scenario sees debt refinanced but the EBITDA guidance lowered by 2.5% to the midpoint of management’s guidance. This outcome will provide certainty on the group’s balance sheet but slightly weaken confidence in its FY21 outlook.

Under the third scenario, Vocus will launch a capital raising and downgrade its EBITDA guidance by 5%. This will see shareholders diluted and consensus downgrading forecasts for the next financial year.

Re-rating opportunity

The first scenario is the most bullish one and Morgan Stanley believes the stock will jump 13% from yesterday’s closing price of $3.10 to $3.50.

The broker believes this is the most likely outcome because management made good progress in turning the business around since the last refinancing exercise two years ago and there’s less earnings risk given this is the last month of FY20.

If there was bad earnings news, one would think the company would have already announced it due to the continuous disclosure obligation.

Worst case doesn’t look so bad

But even under scenario two, the impact on the Vocus share price may not be as bad as you’d think. The broker thinks the stock could also climb higher to $3.30 a share as that puts it on a price-earnings multiple of 18 times.

In the last and most bearish scenario, the stock is tipped to fall to $2.55.

However, I would point out that ASX companies that have undertaken a capital raise in the midst of this COVID-19 pandemic have outperformed after the raise.

So even if Vocus goes cap in hand to shareholders and the share price falls, this could also prove to be a buying opportunity.

More reading

• JobMaker is coming. These 3 ASX 200 shares could benefit
• Is the BHP share price cheap right now?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• This embattled ASX 200 company could be the next M&A target
• ASX 200 rises 0.3%, Zip rockets higher

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of Telstra Limited and TPG Telecom Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Telstra Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post Why the Vocus share price can race ahead later this month appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

from Motley Fool Australia https://ift.tt/3cuniXU