
Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG) shares have seen a lot of volatility since listing in June 2024. Considering the Guzman Y Gomez share price is still down 39% from its December 2024 high, it could be a rare opportunity to invest in one of Australia’s top shares.
The Mexican restaurant business hit a low earlier this year, but since then it has announced impressive numbers that could help continue the trend of a recovering GYG share price and eventually reach new heights.
Guzman Y Gomez is currently focused on three markets: Australia, Singapore, and Japan.
In Australia, the business has a mixture of corporate-owned and franchise restaurants. In Japan and Singapore, it has master franchise agreements.
GYG sells a variety of food items, including burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (without the tortilla), nachos, nacho fries, quesadillas, enchiladas, churros, and plenty more. Its offering seems to be resonating with Australians, given how much it’s growing each year.
There are a few factors key to its success, including ‘clean’ healthy food, a drive-through option at many locations, and speed of service. It’s proud to boast that it’s one of the fastest quick-service restaurants (QSRs) to serve customers.
Ultimately, the company has a goal to be the “best and biggest restaurant company in the world”. Time will tell if it ever reaches that goal, and it doesn’t need to reach that scale to be a very successful investment for Australians, in my view.
I think there are four excellent factors that make it one of Australia’s top shares to buy today, aside from the food.
Strong performance by its existing network
At the end of September 2026, the company said that it had 258 Australian restaurants, 23 Singapore restaurants, and five restaurants in Japan.
The company regularly reports to investors how its existing stores perform on sales growth, using the ‘comparable sales growth’ metric.
For the FY27 first quarter, comparable sales growth for Australia, Singapore, and Japan combined was 7.1%. That’s an impressive growth rate considering Guzman Y Gomez is now over 20 years old, and it’s one of the factors that make me call it one of Australia’s top shares.
The company is driving comparable sales momentum in several ways.
It has invested in a new order management system (OMS), which is driving operational efficiencies in restaurants.
GYG is expanding its opening hours, with dozens of locations now operating on a 24/7 basis.
The company is regularly adding to its range of menu items, including a new Caesar range using mostly existing ingredients, new tacos, and the new meat BBQ beef rib.
It continues to invest in and expand its delivery and digital offering for customers.
The final area that’s driving comparable sales is marketing through various forms of media.
Expanding restaurant network
The existing restaurants are clearly doing well, and it’s expanding its restaurant network.
Shareholders learned how much the network had grown with the FY27 first-quarter update.
It said that its Australian restaurant count had increased to 258. That represented a year-over-year rise of 31 locations, equating to an increase of 13.7%. Within that Australian total, corporate restaurants grew by 10 to 94, and the number of franchise restaurants increased by 21 to 164.
In Asia, Singapore saw an additional restaurant, taking that national total to 23 (a rise of 4.5%). The Japanese total remained at five.
Guzman Y Gomez expects both the Singapore and Japan totals to increase during FY27.
The company expects to open 35 new restaurants in Australia during FY27, with approximately 12 restaurants expected to open in the second quarter.
The long-term potential growth of the global network is exciting to me, and it’s one of the main reasons why it could be one of Australia’s top shares to buy.
Eventually, the business would like to reach 1,000 Australian restaurants within the next 20 years, which is an impressive long-term tailwind. I think it’s a very achievable goal, given that some of its major rivals already have that many outlets and Australia is likely to see significant population growth in the next two decades.
The potential for further international expansion to other countries is also exciting to me.
Rising profit margins
In the third quarter of FY27, the company reported network sales growth of 18.8% to $387.5 million, but the rising profit margins are just as exciting to me. I like seeing a company’s margins increase as scale grows because that shows compelling operating leverage.
Guzman y Gomez is seeing its various profit lines grow faster than revenue.
From its continuing operations in FY26, network sales rose 17.9%, underlying operating profit (EBITDA) grew 28.7% to $85 million, and underlying NPAT grew 29.7% to $53.4 million.
Pleasingly, the underlying EBITDA margin as a percentage of network sales improved by 50 basis points from 5.7% to 6.2%. The company expects this margin to rise in the coming years.
In FY27, the underlying EBITDA margin as a percentage of network sales is expected to rise to between 6.7% and 6.9%.
The actual economics of the restaurants are also growing. According to GYG, the average drive-through restaurant achieved $6.9 million in sales in FY26 (up from $6.7 million in FY25 and $6.2 million in FY24), while the network restaurant margin improved to 21.6% in FY26 (up from 21.5% in FY25).
Both Guzman Y Gomez and its Australian franchisees are becoming increasingly profitable, which is a great sign for the long-term health of the company.
The median franchisee return on investment (ROI) is currently 47%, which is pleasingly high.
Attractive investor metrics
As I mentioned at the start of the article, the Guzman Y Gomez share price is down close to 40% from its former all-time high a couple of years ago.
The valuation looks much more reasonable now that the business is cheaper and is much more profitable on an underlying net profit basis.
According to the projection on CommSec, the company is forecast to generate earnings per share (EPS) of 51.9 cents in FY27, 65.9 cents in FY28, and 94.5 cents in FY29. In other words, EPS could rise by 82% between FY27 and FY29. With that sort of growth rate, I think it could be one of Australia’s top shares to buy.
Using that estimate, the Guzman Y Gomez share price is now valued at 28 times FY29’s estimated earnings.
I also like how the business is willing to enact share buybacks and pay dividends to shareholders, which shows a keen focus on shareholder returns. I think dividends and earnings can climb over the coming years.
The post A rare buying opportunity in 1 of Australia's top shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.
Wondering where to invest $1,000 right now?
When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*
Scott just revealed what he believes could be the ‘five best ASX stocks’ for investors to buy right now. We believe these stocks are trading at attractive prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now…
* Returns as of 6 March 2025
More reading
- Buy, hold, sell: Fortescue, Guzman Y Gomez, and Megaport shares
- Guzman y Gomez in focus as Q1 FY27 sales jump 18.8%
- Domino’s Pizza Enterprises vs Guzman y Gomez: Which fast food stock offers better value?
- 2 top ASX shares to buy and hold for the next decade
- Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week
Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Guzman Y Gomez. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

