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What Negative Interest Rates Would Mean For Banks, Stocks And The Average American
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed is still not considering cutting interest rates into negative territory.Goldman Sachs co-head of global foreign exchange, rates and emerging markets strategy Zach Pandl said Thursday that the Fed is just one more COVID-19 outbreak wave away from cutting rates below zero. What Are Negative Rates? The primary interest rate the Federal Reserve manages is the fed funds rate. The fed funds rate is the interest rate banks and other institutions charge to lend money to each other, typically on an overnight basis. Banks also indirectly base savings rates, mortgage rates and credit card rates on the fed funds rate as well.When interest rates drop below zero, lenders are actually forced to pay borrowers to take their money. On the surface, the idea is counterintuitive. Yet several central banks around the world have tested the waters of negative interest rates as a way of providing artificial economic stimulus.How Are Banks Impacted? Banks are unable to drop interest rates below zero on the average consumer deposit accounts or they risk customers withdrawing and hoarding their cash. Banks in other parts of the world have successfully been able to lower interest rates on large corporate accounts below zero because it's nearly impossible for tax-compliant large businesses to operate without deposit accounts.How Will Banks Profit? Retail banks make profit on the difference between the interest rates they charge on loans and the rates they pay on deposits. This spread is known as a bank's net interest margin, or NIM. In general, the lower interest rates go, the more NIM is compressed and the less wiggle room banks have in maximizing profits.When Japan dropped interest rates below zero, bank NIMs predictably dropped, applying pressure on bank earnings. In a negative rate environment, banks will be forced to try to offset these pressures by increasing profits in areas outside of deposits, such as ramping up fee revenue or increasing investment banking activities.Negative Rate Winners, Losers The most obvious winners from negative interest rates are people and companies with large debt loads. Falling interest rates decrease the cost of borrowing money. In the theoretical extreme, some companies could even be paid to borrow money if interest rates are below zero.The biggest losers from negative interest rates are people with savings and companies with large cash balances. If interest rates drop below zero, companies will essentially be penalized for holding cash. Instead, many companies will be forced to invest that cash, which is the theoretical justification for negative rates in the first place. By forcing companies to invest and spend money, negative rates in theory will help drive economic growth.That same stimulus also benefits stock investors. In addition to forcing companies to invest cash, negative interest rates also make low-risk sources of investment income, such as savings accounts, CDs and Treasury bonds, unappealing. The lower interest rates fall, the fewer viable options investors have and the more money flows into stocks, driving share prices higher.What Else Can The Fed Do To Stimulate? The Federal Reserve essentially cut the fed fund rate to zero back in March, but that doesn't mean that it has no other options for stimulating the economy. The Fed has a history of quantitative easing, buying large quantities of government and mortgage bonds to provide liquidity to the economy. In March, the Fed announced a new unlimited QE program to help combat the economic slowdown.The Fed also initiated a program for buying corporate bonds for the first time and even set aside up to $500 billion to buy bonds from state and large local governments as well.There are other more extreme measures that the Fed could potentially take in the future in addition to dropping interest rates below zero. The Federal Reserve could actually print money and distribute it directly to Americans. This policy is known as "helicopter dropping."The Fed could also choose to go beyond supporting corporations by buying bonds and also begin buying shares of stock. That idea may seem extreme, but Japan's central bank has already been buying stocks.Benzinga's Take With even President Donald Trump talking up the potential economic benefits of negative interest rates, American investors should be financially prepared for the possibility. If cash becomes the enemy and the the Fed forces companies to spend it all, one of the best places to invest may simply be a low-cost S&P 500 index fund, such as the VANGUARD IX FUN/S&P 500 ETF SHS NEW (NYSE: VOO) or the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY).Related Links:Powell Says US Economic Recovery 'May Take Some Time To Gather Momentum'2 Technical Levels That Will Determine If S&P 500 Strength Is Just A Bear Market RallySee more from Benzinga * ETF Short Sellers Are Targeting Retail, Biotech * Why Whitney Tilson Is Selling Stocks: 'We're In An Enormous Hole'(C) 2020 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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ASX construction shares feel impacts of COVID-19 shutdowns

The Australian building industry is feeling the combined effects of the summer bushfires and coronavirus. While construction has continued to operate as an essential business throughout COVID-19, disruptions have been inevitable. ASX building suppliers such as Boral Limited (ASX: BLD) and CSR Limited (ASX: CSR) are feeling the effects.
Boral experiences disruptions
Boral has continued to operate and supply customers in most jurisdictions, albeit with additional health and safety measures in place. In some jurisdictions, however, stricter mandates have resulted in temporary closures and substantial disruption.
This morning, Boral reported that for the 4 months ended April 2020, Australian concrete volumes were down 16% and revenue down 6% compared to the prior corresponding period (pcp).
In the North American division, around 25% of the workforce has been placed on furlough. 4 operations are in full or partial shutdown as a result of government mandates and around 70% of building product plants have been impacted.
For the 4 months from January to April 2020, revenue for Boral North America decreased by around 5% on the pcp. Production volumes across the roofing, stone, and fly ash businesses were also down. CEO Mike Kane said, “the impacts of COVID-19 measures on our people and our markets have been significant and will be for some time.”
Debt financing extended to maintain liquidity
Boral has extended its debt facilities with a new US Private Placement note of US$200 million. It has also secured new loan facilities of A$365 million and approved an extension of US$665 million in existing facilities. This has increased Boral’s liquidity and extended its debt maturity.
The company is taking action to preserve cash through shift reductions and temporary plant closures to align production with current and expected lower levels of activity. Capital expenditure has been reduced by 15% to 20% to ~$330 million in FY20.
CSR sees declining revenues
Earlier this week, CSR reported a 5% reduction in revenue for the full year ended March 2020. Net profit after tax (NPAT) from continuing operations fell 10% to $125 million, although total NPAT rose 61%. This was because total NPAT in the previous year was impacted by impairment charges relating to the Viridian Glass business.
CSR reports it hasn’t experienced a significant drop in activity since the end of March, although building product revenue was down 3% compared to the pcp. CSR nonetheless anticipates there will be an impact on activity in key markets this year. The company has declined to provide earnings guidance due to the uncertainty from COVID-19.
Foolish takeaway
The construction sector may see a pullback this year as economic contraction takes hold. This will put pressure on sales for ASX construction shares like CSR and Boral until building markets recover.
While ASX construction shares may face some near-term headwinds, be sure to check out the report below for an ASX share we Fools like the look of right now.
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More reading
- What happens to ASX shares if Australian house prices do fall 30%?
- The latest ASX shares upgraded by brokers to “buy”
- Why CBA, CSR, Fortescue, & Northern Star shares are pushing higher
- Safe dividend stocks to buy today for the COVID-19 world
- ASX 200 drops over 1% at the market close
Motley Fool contributor Kate O’Brien has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.
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