A 10% share price gain over 12 months is never guaranteed.

But when I look across the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), there are a few shares where I think earnings growth, improving business performance, or a more attractive starting valuation could support that sort of return.

These are three ASX 200 shares I would be watching.

Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG)

Breville is the first one on my list. The appliance maker has built a strong global business around premium kitchen products, particularly coffee machines, and I think there is still plenty of room to expand internationally.

What I like is that Breville does not need to rely on one market for growth. It has established positions in Australia, North America, and Europe, while newer markets can provide another leg over time.

There is also a product development element to the story. Breville has consistently invested in new appliances and higher-value products, which can help support revenue growth without depending entirely on geographic expansion.

If the company continues to grow earnings and make progress across its international markets, I think a gain of more than 10% over the next year is achievable.

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE)

Treasury Wine Estates is a very different proposition. The wine company owns a collection of premium brands, led by Penfolds, which gives it exposure to consumers willing to pay considerably more for higher-end products.

For me, the opportunity is about getting more value from those brands across international markets. A stronger contribution from Asia could be particularly important, while the company also has room to keep growing its premium wine portfolio in markets such as the United States.

Of course, wine is not an easy category. Consumer demand can fluctuate, inventory needs to be managed carefully, and international markets can change quickly.

But that also means sentiment can move sharply when trading improves. If Treasury Wine Estates can show that earnings momentum is strengthening, I think the market could become noticeably more positive on the ASX 200 share over the next 12 months.

ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD)

ResMed is my third pick. The sleep treatment company operates in a large global market, with millions of people affected by sleep apnoea and many more still undiagnosed or untreated.

That gives ResMed a long runway even before considering further product innovation and improvements in diagnosis.

I also like the earnings outlook. Consensus forecasts point to earnings per share (EPS) increasing from $1.54 in FY26 to $1.69 in FY27, $1.85 in FY28, and $2.02 in FY29.

That works out to annualised earnings growth of roughly 9.5% across the three years. For a global healthcare leader, I think that is a healthy pace.

If ResMed delivers close to those expectations and sentiment towards the shares improves, I can easily see scope for the share price to rise more than 10% over the next year.

Foolish takeaway

I would not buy any shares purely because I think they can rise 10% in 12 months.

But Breville, Treasury Wine Estates, and ResMed all have business-specific reasons that I think could support a stronger share price from here.

For me, that makes all three worth considering today.

The post 3 ASX 200 shares I think could rise more than 10% in a year appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ResMed and Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed and Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

A couple of years ago, the idea of WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares falling to $50 would have seemed almost unthinkable.

The logistics software company was growing rapidly, investors were willing to pay extraordinary valuations for that growth, and it seemed the share price could only keep climbing.

Things look quite different today.

With WiseTech shares trading around $32.09, $50 is now a target that would require a substantial recovery.

But could the company get there in 2027 or 2028?

What happened to WiseTech shares?

WiseTech has had a difficult couple of years, and there is more to the share price collapse than a simple change in market sentiment.

Governance controversies surrounding founder Richard White have damaged investor confidence, artificial intelligence (AI) disruption concerns have weighed on sentiment, while the acquisition of e2open has brought integration costs, additional debt, and questions about execution.

The business has also been changing rapidly.

WiseTech is embedding AI into its products and operations, restructuring its workforce, and moving CargoWise customers towards a new commercial model.

That shift away from traditional seat-based fees towards transaction-driven revenue could eventually prove valuable. But investors understandably want to see how it translates into sustainable earnings growth.

I think all these developments have contributed to a major reassessment of what the market is prepared to pay for WiseTech shares.

The days of investors automatically awarding the company an eye-watering earnings multiple appear to be over.

Why I still like the business

Despite everything that has happened, I think WiseTech still has an excellent underlying business.

Its CargoWise platform is deeply embedded in the operations of major logistics companies, helping them manage shipments, customs requirements, documentation, and other complex processes.

Replacing that technology would be a significant undertaking for many customers, particularly those operating across multiple countries.

That gives WiseTech a strong position from which to keep growing.

The acquisition of e2open also broadens its reach beyond freight forwarders into other parts of global supply chains.

If management can successfully integrate the two businesses, I think there is considerable scope to improve efficiency and offer customers more services.

AI could provide another growth opportunity. WiseTech is developing tools to automate more of the work its customers perform, potentially increasing the value of CargoWise as logistics operations become more digital.

The challenge is demonstrating that these changes can produce the sustained earnings growth investors once took for granted.

Could WiseTech shares reach $50?

Consensus forecasts point to earnings per share (EPS) of $1.44 in FY27, increasing to $1.91 in FY28 and $2.31 in FY29.

That represents expected earnings growth of more than 60% between FY27 and FY29.

At the current share price of $32.09, WiseTech shares are trading on a P/E ratio of around 22 times FY27 earnings, falling to approximately 17 times FY28 earnings and just 14 times FY29 earnings.

I think those multiples will prove to be cheap if the company can deliver anything close to the expected growth.

So what would $50 require?

Based on FY27 forecasts, it would put WiseTech on a P/E ratio of almost 35 times. That would be a fairly demanding valuation given everything investors have experienced recently.

But looking further ahead changes the picture. At $50, WiseTech would trade on approximately 26 times FY28 earnings and less than 22 times FY29 earnings.

I think those are realistic multiples for a global software company capable of growing earnings at the rate analysts currently expect.

That makes $50 a plausible target in 2027 or 2028, particularly if investors become more confident that earnings growth can continue into the 2030s.

Foolish takeaway

I think WiseTech shares could return to $50 over the next couple of years.

The company has plenty of work ahead to rebuild confidence. But if management can deliver on growth expectations and demonstrate there is plenty more to come beyond FY29, I think $50 is a realistic target without needing the market to return to its old valuation extremes.

The post Could WiseTech shares be worth $50 again? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) has posted a 6% drop in iron ore shipments for the September 2026 quarter, with net debt rising after the payment of a final dividend.

What did Fortescue report?

• Total iron ore shipments of 46.8 million tonnes (Mt), down 6% on the prior corresponding period
• Hematite realised price averaged US$80 per dry metric tonne (82% of Platts 61% CFR Index)
• Cash of US$3.2 billion and net debt climbed to US$2.8 billion at 30 September 2026
• Final FY26 dividend payment of US$1.0 billion made during the quarter
• Quarterly capital expenditure was US$0.9 billion

What else do investors need to know?

Iron ore shipments were affected by scheduled maintenance, including port shutdowns, although supply chain stock levels remained healthy at the end of the quarter. Operating cash flow was impacted by increased working capital and rising product inventory.

Iron ore sales volumes (42.9Mt) were lower than total shipments, reflecting ongoing contract negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG). Importantly, Fortescue has kept its full-year 2027 guidance for shipments, C1 unit cost, and capital expenditure unchanged, though these remain subject to reaching an agreement with CMRG.

What’s next for Fortescue?

Investors should keep an eye on negotiations with CMRG, as these remain key to Fortescue’s sales volumes and overall guidance for FY27. With inventories up and guidance unchanged, management appears confident of navigating the current challenges while maintaining healthy supply levels.

Looking ahead, the company’s focus will likely remain on operational efficiency and the resolution of customer negotiations. The full September quarter Production Report, due 22 October, may provide further detail.

Fortescue share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Fortescue shares have declined 17%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has declined 2% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Fortescue posts September 2026 quarterly earnings update appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.