23 March 2020.

That’s the day the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) found its bottom for the year so far. On that fateful day, the ASX 200 descended below 4,500 points before finishing the day at 4,546. That’s a long way from the levels we see today (even after the savage sell-off). But this dip was so quick if you blinked, you probably would have missed it. The next trading day, shares were back up and the rest is, as they say, history.

But sometimes history repeats itself – or at least rhymes.

So if we do see an ASX 200 back at the levels we saw on 23 March, I will be buying shares, no question. But which ones? Well, these 3 are on my wishlist for the prices they were offering 2½ months ago.

Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT)

Afterpay hit the unbelievable share price of $8.90 on 23 March – a lightyear away from its current share price of over $50. Yep, that’s right, anyone who won the lottery by buying Afterpay on this date would be sitting on an almost 500% gain today. That’s not bad for a couple of months’ work. I think this company is one of the most exciting and disruptive companies on the ASX (and maybe even in the world). If the Afterpay share price got back to single digits, I wouldn’t hesitate to back up the truck.

WAM Research Limited (ASX: WAX)

I love locking in a solid dividend yield, and WAM Research is known for exactly that. On current prices, this company is offering a hefty 7% dividend yield, complete with full franking credits. However, WAM Research dipped to around 94 cents per share on 23 March – which would have enabled a lucky investor to lock in the far more preferable yield of 10.4%. That’s a yield I couldn’t say no to, and so WAM Research shares will be at the top of my watchlist if the ASX dips once again.

Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM)

Newcrest is the ASX’s largest gold miner and a great way to get some indirect exposure to gold through ASX shares in my view. I think there is a strong bull case for the yellow metal over the coming years. With central banks around the world lowering rates to zero and printing massive amounts of money to counter the economic effects of the coronavirus, I think there will be a high demand for tangible (and unprintable) assets like gold in the years to come.

On 23 March, Newcrest shares dipped down to $21.06. Given that they’re over $30 today, I think it would have been a great move to pick up some Newcrest shares then. It’s a mistake I won’t make again if the ASX gets back to 23 March levels.

More reading

• Leading fund manager names 4 ASX stocks set to benefit from a faster re-opening of the Australian economy
• ASX 200 falls 1.9%, big 4 ASX banks retreat
• Down 20% in 7 trading hours… Worse to come?
• The latest ASX shares to be hit by broker downgrades to “sell” today
• What would I rather buy today: TPG or Telstra shares?

Sebastian Bowen owns shares of Newcrest Mining Limited and WAM Research Limited. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV) share price tumbled on Friday along with its peers, but the costume jewellery retailer may continue to lag ahead of its profit results in August.

This is the prediction from Morgan Stanley who’s warning that there is a 70% to 80% chance the Lovisa share price will fall over the next 60 days.

The bearish prediction stands in contrast to the recent re-rating of ASX retail stocks as Australia emerges from the COVID-19 shutdown.

Retail re-rating

Some retailers like JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX: JBH) and Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (ASX: HVN) have benefitted from increased demand for IT equipment and electronics from stuck-at-home consumers.

Meanwhile, other retailers like Baby Bunting Group Ltd (ASX: BBN) and Kathmandu Holdings Ltd (ASX: KMD) have experienced a spike in online sales.

The sector also got a boost on news that the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic isn’t half as bad as what experts were predicting.

Left behind

But Lovisa may be among the worst placed retailers to benefit from these tailwinds. Morgan Stanley sees near-term risk to its share price as its store rollout in the US, UK and France may take six to 12 months to ramp up again.

This is significant as new store openings in those key markets are a major earnings driver for the group.

But these countries are having more trouble than Australia in flattening the coronavirus curve. The US may be particularly hard hit on fears of a second wave of infections as the number of Americans catching the virus surpassed two million.

All glammed up and nowhere to go

This may not be the only thing to weigh on Lovisa’s share price. Morgan Stanley doesn’t think the small cap retailer will benefit so much from the rebound in consumer spending in Australia.

The reason is social events like weddings are a big driver for jewellery demand and there are still strict limits on the number of people who can attend such gatherings.

Disconnected from online sales

Finally, Lovisa may not benefit significantly from the big shift to online shopping because the company doesn’t have a strong presence in this channel, explained Morgan Stanley.

If the broker is right, the company’s full year result announcement in August may be a sombre affair!

Morgan Stanley’s recommendation on Lovisa is “equal weight” (equivalent to a “hold”) and its price target on the stock is $6.50 a share.

If you are looking for ASX shares to buy during the market volatility, you might want to read this free report from the experts at the Motley Fool.

They’ve picks some of their best buy now stock ideas. Click on the free link below to find out what they are.

More reading

• The latest ASX shares to be hit by broker downgrades to “sell” today
• Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy right now
• ASX 200: improved consumer sentiment to near pre COVID-19 levels
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• ASX 200 drops 3%, Webjet share price sinks

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) seems to have had a rather dramatic mood swing. After some great gains early in the week, both Thursday and Friday have seen massive sell-offs, pushing the ASX 200 decisively back below 6,000 points.

With the global economy and the coronavirus pandemic still in very fluid situations, next week might well see the sell-off of ASX shares continue.

So with this in mind, here are 3 ASX shares that I think have defensive qualities and should be an asset to any portfolio if the sell-off continues next week.

Transurban Group (ASX: TCL)

Transurban is a gigantic owner and operator of tolled roads and motorways across Australia and North America. Transurban’s monopolistic grip on the roadways of our major capital cities is inescapable – both as a motorist and as an investor. Yes, Transurban did see a massive collapse in road usage during the height of the lockdown period over March and April. But I think with restrictions easing, this company will continue to bounce back and remain a great investment for the long-term.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

Miners are not normally my ‘go-to’ for a defensive holding. But I think the unique circumstances 2020 has brought us has changed the game somewhat. Commodity prices have held up remarkably well over the coronavirus pandemic. Chief amongst those has been iron ore, which has topped US$100 per tonne in recent weeks. Thus, I think a diversified commodity play like BHP is a prudent investment going forward. It’s one of the largest miners in the world, is diversified across coal, iron, copper and oil, and has some of the lowest extraction costs in the business. Therefore, I don’t think you can go wrong with Broken Hill Proprietary if the markets sell-off once more.

Metcash Limited (ASX: MTS)

Metcash is often overlooked for its larger rivals Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) and Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW). But I think this perpetual underdog is a great defensive investment if there is another ASX sell-off. Not only does it own the IGA network of grocers, but it also has in its stable hardware chains Mitre 10 and Home Timber & Hardware.

Both grocers and hardware stores have seen increased consumer spending during the coronavirus lockdowns, and I see these trends continuing well into the future. As such, I think Metcash is another great defensive share to look at if the ASX does indeed continue to shed value next week.

More reading

• 3 top ASX dividend shares to add to your portfolio in June
• Woolworths facing fresh threat from Amazon.com
• 3 quality ASX dividend shares to solve your income needs
• 3 ASX 200 shares to add to your watchlist in 2020
• 2 top ASX dividend shares for income in 2020

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of COLESGROUP DEF SET, Transurban Group, and Woolworths Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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