Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares have had an extraordinary first month.

Shares were issued at US$135 before listing on 12 June, and the stock climbed well above US$200, pushing the valuation above US$2 trillion.

Since then, SpaceX shares have come back down to earth. Although, the company was then fast-tracked into the NASDAQ-100 Index (NASDAQ: NDX) in early July, approximately 15 trading days after listing.

Analysts remain bullish.

For ASX investors, that matters more than most realise, because a large number of Australians now own a piece of SpaceX without having made any decision to buy it.

Reasons to remain bullish on SpaceX shares

The core of the bull case is Starlink.

According to SpaceX’s S-1 filing with the SEC, the Starlink connectivity segment generated US$11.4 billion in revenue in 2025. The segment delivered US$4.4 billion in operating income, representing year-on-year growth of 49.8% and 120.4%, respectively.

Starlink served 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries as at 31 March 2026, up from just 2.3 million in 2023.

This is a business growing at extraordinary speed with a defensible moat. Launching a satellite constellation of that scale requires launch capability that almost no competitor possesses.

The Nasdaq-100 inclusion added a further mechanical tailwind. This will force index-tracking funds worldwide to buy SpaceX regardless of any individual portfolio manager’s view on valuation.

Betashares Space Industry ETF

The Betashares Space Industry ETF (ASX: RCKT) is the most direct ASX exposure.

SpaceX has already been included in RCKT following the fund’s fast-track inclusion feature. This allowed it to enter the Solactive Space Industry Index far more quickly than standard timelines would permit.

SpaceX now accounts for approximately 27% of the RCKT portfolio, making it the fund’s single-largest holding by a wide margin.

That concentration deserves a closer look. RCKT is no longer a diversified space economy fund in any meaningful sense.

It is now, in effect, a SpaceX fund with 28 other holdings attached, and its performance will be dominated by what SPCX does from here.

Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF

The Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ) is where most Australians now own SpaceX without having chosen to.

NDQ is one of the most widely held ETFs in Australia, and SpaceX’s Nasdaq-100 inclusion means every NDQ holder automatically gained SpaceX exposure when the index inclusion took effect.

The same applies to holders of the Vanguard MSCI International Shares ETF (ASX: VGS) and the iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV). What’s more, the millions of Australians whose superannuation funds hold international shares benchmarked against major US indices have also gained exposure.

For most investors, that exposure will be small relative to the overall portfolio.

But it exists, automatically, without any further action required.

The risk worth understanding for SpaceX shares

SpaceX is not a conventionally profitable company.

The company posted a GAAP net loss of US$4.94 billion in 2025, driven by losses in the xAI and Space divisions that offset Starlink’s profitability.

A company trading above US$2 trillion with significant GAAP losses is a demanding proposition, even for investors genuinely excited by the long-term opportunity.

The mechanical index buying that has supported the share price since listing was a one-time event, not a permanent support mechanism.

Furthermore, SpaceX bonds issued shortly after the IPO have reportedly sold off to levels comparable with junk-rated borrowers.

This is despite investment-grade ratings, a warning sign that the debt market is less enthusiastic than the equity market.

Foolish Takeaway for SpaceX shares

Analysts remain bullish on SpaceX shares, and Starlink’s growth justifies significant optimism.

But for ASX investors, the more important point is that ownership of SpaceX is now largely automatic rather than chosen.

RCKT holders own it heavily, at around 26% of the fund.

NDQ, VGS, and IVV holders own it passively.

Understanding how much exposure you actually have to SpaceX is perhaps a more useful exercise than debating whether to buy it.

The post Analysts are still bullish on SpaceX shares after Nasdaq inclusion. Here is what that means for ASX investors appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• SpaceX stock: Which ASX ETF buys you the most?
• The best Vanguard ETFs to buy and hold
• ASX IVV and other iShares ETFs are paying dividends today!
• Where to invest $50,000 in ASX ETFs this month

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

There are so many ASX shares Aussies can buy, as share prices fluctuate constantly. Some can end up being significantly undervalued, based on analyst opinions.

Company updates can change investor confidence , while sell-offs can unlock ideas for opportunistic Aussies.

Analysts regularly tells investors about price targets, which explains to us where the share price could be in 12 months from the time of that investment call.

Let’s look at two ASX shares with a potentially exciting future.

Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO)

Judo is a financial institution that provides loans to small and medium enterprises (SMEs), with term deposits being a key source of funding. Term deposit customers include SMSFs, individuals and businesses.

The company recently said its FY26 cost-to-risk is expected to be in the range of between $116 million to $122 million because of three exposures across different sectors as a result of customer-specific developments.

Even so, Judo still expects its FY26 profit before tax (PBT) to be between $163 million to $169 million, or approximately 30% growth compared to FY25.

The company also expects FY27 PBT to be between $210 million to $220 million, which would be a 30% rise as a result of growth and operating leverage despite this period of uncertainty.

According to CMC Invest, there have been 10 ratings on the business within the last three months, with eight of those being a buy and two being a hold. Of those 10 ratings, the average price target is $1.63, which implies a possible rise of 77% from where it is at the time of writing.                                                                         

Nextdc Ltd (ASX: NXT)

Another ASX share that has attracted a lot of positive attention is Nextdc, a business that builds, owns and operates data centres in a number of Australian cities. It also has a growing number of locations overseas, including Japan, Malaysia and New Zealand.

The business is investing heavily in data centres to provide the computing infrastructure feeding global demand for AI.

Nextdc is seeing this period as a great time to heavily invest, and it’s also seeing a rapid increase in the contracted utilisation. In mid-April, the company upgraded its contracted utilisation by 60% to 667MW and it also upgraded its FY26 capital expenditure guidance range to between $2.7 billion to $3 billion.

According to CMC Invest, there have been eight broker ratings on the business in the last three months, with all of those being a buy. The average price target of those eight analysts is $20.41, which implies a possible rise of 46%.

These are both businesses growing profit rapidly, though there are other ASX shares that could be even better buys.

The post 2 ASX shares tipped to grow 45% or more in the next 12 months appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• SK Hynix IPOs in the US. Here’s what that means for ASX investors
• NEXTDC boosts funding with $2.3 billion senior debt facility upsize
• 9 ASX 200 shares downgraded by analysts this week
• 3 ASX 200 shares with 50% to 100% upside in FY27
• Buy, hold, sell: CAR Group, Judo Capital, and Worley shares

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX tech shares spent the early 2020s being described as the future of the local share market.

The scoreboard tells a different story.

The Betashares S&P/ASX Australian Technology ETF (ASX: ATEC), which tracks the S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX), traded at $22.37 five years ago.

Today it trades at approximately $22.69.

A $10,000 investment five years ago would have bought approximately 447 units.

Those 447 units are worth approximately $10,143 today.

That is a capital gain of roughly 1.4% over five full years, before distributions.

Distributions would add modestly to that figure, but the headline is unavoidable: on price alone, ASX tech investors have gone almost nowhere.

How ASX tech shares went nowhere so dramatically

The flat five-year result conceals extraordinary volatility.

ATEC returned 3.89% in 2021, then crashed 32.43% in 2022 as interest rates rose and growth valuations compressed violently.

It then recovered hard, gaining 34.91% in 2023 and 42.27% in 2024, before falling 10.60% in 2025 and dropping a further 12% so far in 2026.

The ETF now sits approximately 30% below its twelve-month high of $33.29.

Investors who bought and sold at the right moments in that cycle did extremely well.

Investors who simply held for five years captured none of it.

Here are some ASX tech shares that have defined the performance of this ETF over the last 5 years.

Xero a great business, a terrible entry price

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) is one of ATEC’s largest holdings at approximately 9% of the fund.

Xero has fallen approximately 60% from its all-time high of $196.52.

The business itself has not deteriorated.

The FY2026 result delivered 31% revenue growth to $2.75 billion, with the US business surging 240% on the back of the Melio acquisition.

The decline is almost entirely a valuation story. At its peak, Xero traded at well over 100 times earnings. This multiple assumed years of uninterrupted growth and left no margin for the rate environment to change.

WiseTech Global: the index’s biggest destroyer of value

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) sits at approximately 5.7% of ATEC.

WiseTech was the worst performer in the entire ASX 200 in FY26, dropping 70% in value.

Unlike Xero, WiseTech’s collapse was not primarily about valuation.

It was about governance, driven by a series of allegations against founder Richard White, including an AFP investigation.

However, the CargoWise platform remains used by 23 of the world’s top 25 global freight forwarders, and WiseTech has maintained its FY26 guidance throughout the turmoil.

The business did not break, rather, investor trust did.

What this actually teaches investors

The lesson here is not “avoid technology.”

It is that entry valuation determines outcomes, and that concentration inside a narrow sector index can be punishing.

ATEC’s top ten holdings account for approximately 75% of the fund.

When two of the largest fall 60% and 70% respectively, nothing in the remaining holdings can offset that.

Over the same five-year window, an investor in a broader ASX 200 index fund would have collected years of dividends and franking credits while the tech index went sideways.

Foolish takeaway for ASX tech shares

$10,000 invested in ASX tech shares five years ago is worth approximately $10,143 today on a capital basis.

The businesses inside that index include some of the finest companies in Australia.

The prices investors paid for them in 2021 were the problem, not the businesses themselves.

For investors looking at today’s heavily discounted tech sector, that fact is worth considering.

The post Here’s what $10,000 invested in ASX tech shares 5 years ago would be worth now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 ASX ETFs with strong long-term growth potential
• Another CEO share sale has this ASX 100 tech stock sinking today
• Should I invest $2,500 into WiseTech shares?
• 10 fantastic ASX shares to buy for FY27
• Has the WiseTech share price finally hit the bottom after crashing 50%?

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global and Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.