• Alibaba Stock Bulls Shouldn’t Sweat Delisting

    Alibaba Stock Bulls Shouldn’t Sweat DelistingAlibaba (NYSE:BABA) stock investors just can't seem to catch a break. Between the trade war, the novel coronavirus and now fears over a potential U.S. delisting, the stock has been bombarded with negative headlines over and over.Source: Kevin Chen Photography / Shutterstock.com None of these headlines have anything directly to do with the company or its business. And it's likely none of them will ultimately have any impact on the company's long-term valuation.The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act requires all companies listed on U.S. exchanges to certify "they are not owned or controlled by a foreign government." In addition, these companies would be delisted if their auditors aren't certified by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board after three consecutive years of inspection. And the bill specifies that companies can't simply delist from the Nasdaq or the NYSE and trade on the OTC market as a loophole.InvestorPlace – Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 7 Red-Hot Biotech Stocks Racing to Develop a Coronavirus VaccineI am a Alibaba stock investor. I will also be the first to admit that the company most certainly operates under the influence of the Chinese government. But I don't see a potential U.S. delisting as a problem for several reasons. Delisting Alibaba Stock Is Likely a BluffIt's election year. There's a lot of anger in the world about Covid-19. Some people argue that China is rightfully to blame for allowing conditions in wet markets that are conducive to viral mutations. Others argue that blaming Chinese culture for the virus is judgmental and even racist. But between the virus, the trade war, and fraudulent U.S.-listed Chinese companies like Luckin Coffee (NASDAQ:LK), there's a lot of hostility toward China these days among U.S. voters.In other words, going after Chinese stocks is low-hanging fruit for politicians. Passing some financial crackdown law on Chinese companies is an easy way for politicians to appear "tough on China," whatever that means. Meanwhile, I doubt even President Donald Trump actually cares about protecting investors. I think he cares about winning the trade war, and this crackdown is his latest leverage. Delisting May Be DifficultLet's assume Congress passes the bill and regulators actually attempt to enforce it. It may be more difficult to gain access to Alibaba's accounting than it seems. Americans actually own shares of Alibaba Group Holding Corp, not Alibaba itself. Alibaba stock represents shares of a variable interest entity (VIE) that is headquartered in the Cayman Islands, not China. So the VIE is listed in the U.S., not Alibaba itself. See what I'm getting at?I'm sure the company has made sure the VIE's accounting as clean as a whistle. I'm not a lawyer or an accountant. But I could easily see how trying to access the company's accounting through the VIE could be difficult. It might even be virtually impossible.Alibaba launched a dual listing in Hong Kong just last year. That gives the company flexibility that other Chinese companies may not have.For example, if U.S. regulators ultimately delist Alibaba stock, it won't happen overnight. Investors may simply be able to transfer their shares to a U.S. broker that allows trading in Hong Kong stocks and covert to Hong Kong shares. They may also receive cash for their shares for a valuation roughly in-line with the company's Hong Kong valuation. Alibaba May Simply ComplyBut potentially the most likely outcome is that nothing at all happens to Alibaba stock. Alibaba CFO Maggie Wu recently told investors that the company has been an SEC filer since 2014. She said the company stands behind the integrity of its accounting."Alibaba's financial statements are prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP and since our inception in 1999, we have been audited by PwC Hong Kong, PwC Hong Kong is the local affiliate of the worldwide PwC's firm, and its auditing standards are overseen by the PwC national office in the United States," Wu said.In fact, the company was reportedly investigated by the SEC back in 2016 for its accounting practices. Nothing major seemed to come to light as a result of that investigation.U.S. investors seem to assume all Chinese numbers are illegitimate. But if the company actually does want to comply and remain listed in the U.S., maybe the new law will finally help eliminate much of the valuation gap between it and Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN).The delisting news has rattled Alibaba stock, even though the company keeps putting up one impressive quarter after another. Traders should expect more weakness in the near term until the market gets more clarity about the situation.However, at this point, the new compliance requirements could easily turn out to be as much of a blessing as a curse for Alibaba stock in the long term.Wayne Duggan has been a U.S. News & World Report Investing contributor since 2016 and is a staff writer at Benzinga, where he has written more than 7,000 articles. Mr. Duggan is the author of the book Beating Wall Street With Common Sense, which focuses on investing psychology and practical strategies to outperform the stock market. As of this writing, Wayne Duggan was long BABA. More From InvestorPlace * Top Stock Picker Reveals His Next 1,000% Winner * The Huge Story for 2020 & Beyond That You Aren't Hearing About * Revolutionary Tech Behind 5G Rollout Is Being Pioneered By This 1 Company * The 1 Stock All Retirees Must Own The post Alibaba Stock Bulls Shouldn't Sweat Delisting appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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  • Wells Fargo Stock Is Too Cheap

    Wells Fargo Stock Is Too CheapWells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) is a tremendous bargain today. Wells Fargo stock, which was trading at $26.30 this afternoon, is selling for just 80% of its tangible book value per share (TBVPS) of $32.90.Source: Ken Wolter / Shutterstock.com To put it succinctly, that valuation is simply too low. Let's assume the very worst happens: somehow Wells Fargo will have to write off so many loans that its book value falls to its present stock price.First of all, that suggests that loans worth 17.3% of the whole company's shareholder value will be written off. Since its book value is now $182.7 billion, under that scenario, $31.5 billion of loans will go under. That means that the bank will have to assume that the loans will never be repaid and write them off as charge-offs. That seems almost impossible.InvestorPlace – Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsEven during the financial crisis in 2008, Wells Fargo's book value did not decline. It actually increased from 2007 to 2008 and through 2009. So contemplating a 17.3% decline in the bank's book value seems almost absurd. But that is how the stock market is pricing WFC stock today.Another reason why the price today seems out of whack is that even in the last recession, the bank's stock price got down to about $12 per share. But its book value was $16.09 per share, according to Value Line Research. * 7 Red-Hot Vaccine Stocks Racing to Develop a Coronavirus Cure Wells Fargo stock did not change hands for 75% of the bank's book value for very long. When the economy started to improve, it quickly shot up to 100% of book value per share and then rose further.The economy is now starting to improve. The bank's stock price should soon start to reflect that reality. Based on Wells Fargo's present TBVPS of $32.09, the stock looks poised to gain about 22%. The Bank's Dividend Yield Implies a Potential Gain of 41%Wells Fargo pays an annual dividend of $2.04 per share. On April 28, it declared a quarterly dividend of 51 cents per share. Its dividend yield stands at 7.5%.But the company has not decided to cut its dividend. It has made no mention of doing so, even though it suspended its share buybacks.Analysts, on average, expect its earnings per share to come in at $1.43 this year. But that includes a whopping $3 billion reserve hit (equivalent to almost 73 cents per share) to the bank's earnings. However, if the bank does not take such a hit, it will have enough funds to cover its dividend. Its EPS for 2021 is expected to be $2.58, according to Seeking Alpha. So it will be able to cover its dividend next year.Therefore, I don't believe the bank will cut its dividend this quarter. Even if it does, I doubt whether its dividend will stay below its current level for very long.Therefore, based on Wells Fargo's historical dividend yield, at what price should the stock be trading? According to Seeking Alpha, its average dividend yield in the past four years was 3.49%.That indicates that the stock should be trading at $58.45 (i.e. $2.04 divided by 3.49%), not $26.30. But let's assume that the stock's current yield should be 50% higher than its historical level. After all, the economy will undergo a U-shaped recovery, and it will take awhile before the stock recovers.That implies the dividend yield now should be 5.5% or so (halfway between 3.5% and 7.5%). That means the stock should be at least $37 per share. That represents a gain of 41%. Merging the Two Implied Values for Wells Fargo StockAs we have seen, the true value for Wells' stock, based on its book value per share, should be $32.09. That's about 22% above today's price.Using a modified historical dividend yield approach, the stock is worth $37 per share, a gain of 41%.The average of these two target prices is $34.55 per share. So look for the shares to gain 31% over the next year or even earlier.One positive catalyst for the shares could be the June release of the company's stress tests by the Federal Reserve. I wrote about that in my earlier article, which was published last month. I don't believe the Federal Reserve is going to force the bank to cut its dividend to preserve capital.Therefore, Wells Fargo stock seems to provide conservative investors with a large margin of safety. That's especially true now because it sells for such a huge discount to its tangible book value.As of this writing, Mark Hake, CFA does not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Mark Hake runs the Total Yield Value Guide which you can review here. More From InvestorPlace * Top Stock Picker Reveals His Next 1,000% Winner * The Huge Story for 2020 & Beyond That You Aren't Hearing About * Revolutionary Tech Behind 5G Rollout Is Being Pioneered By This 1 Company * The 1 Stock All Retirees Must Own The post Wells Fargo Stock Is Too Cheap appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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