The big four banks have traditionally been seen as safe havens for Australian investors. However, a new research report from broker Jarden argues that they are all overvalued at current share prices.

Jarden only has an overweight recommendation on ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ). Meanwhile, it has sell ratings on Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC).

Federal Budget having an impact

The broker argues that the federal government’s changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing rules for property investors will at least halve the rate of home loan growth, which could have implications for dividend policies at the banks.

Jarden said Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) continues to outperform the big four banks with its simplified digital offerings.

The broker also said AI threatens to change the way people interact with banking, and inertia may no longer be enough to retain customers.

While Jarden prefers ANZ to the other banks with its overweight rating, its price target of $35.50 is still below the current level of $37.36.

ANZ is also paying a 4.5% dividend yield.

The bank recently announced that its cash profit for the quarter ended 30 June was up just 1% on the quarterly average of the half-year ended 31 March.

At the time, ANZ Chief Executive Officer Nuno Matos said:

As we release our third quarter update, we remain on track to meet our Return on Tangible Equity and Cost-to-Income targets. In the quarter, we continued to improve productivity, margins and business volumes, including accelerating growth in business banking and returning home lending to system growth. Beyond our immediate priorities, we are investing now in customer experience, propositions, channel uplift and transaction banking. This will position us well for the second phase of our strategy beyond 2027, to accelerate growth and outperform the market.

Commonwealth Bank could drop sharply

Regarding Commonwealth Bank, Jarden is predicting a very steep share price fall from $151.18 currently to $90.

When releasing its FY26 results, CBA warned of difficult times ahead.

It said:

The Australian economy has remained resilient, supported by historically low unemployment and longer-term investment. However growth is slowing, with higher interest rates and inflation placing uneven pressure on household incomes and economic activity. Housing activity has softened from a high base. Application volumes appear to have stabilised in recent weeks. Businesses continue to manage higher input costs and supply uncertainty.

For National Australia Bank, Jarden is forecasting a share price of $29, compared to $38.55 currently. Meanwhile, for Westpac, it is predicting its share price to fall from $34.26 (at the time of writing) to $31.

The post How much could the big 4 banks’ share prices fall? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• How much superannuation do I need to earn $56,000 per year in passive income?
• Fortescue vs National Australia Bank: Which ASX blue chip is the better buy this month?
• Buy, hold, sell: CBA, Capstone Copper, Codan shares
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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Woodside Energy vs Rio Tinto shares: Which ASX 200 giant looks better value?

Investors tossing up between Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) are looking at two titans of the Australian sharemarket, both mainstays of the ASX 200, but operating in very different sectors. With Woodside in oil and gas and Rio Tinto in global mining, both offer scale, dividends, and global reach, but their value story isn’t the same. For anyone keen on dependable blue chips, “Woodside Energy vs Rio Tinto shares” is a classic ASX yardstick – so which looks better value today?

The case for Woodside Energy

Woodside Energy is Australia’s largest independent oil and gas company and the nation’s biggest operator of oil and gas production. With key assets both onshore and offshore in Australia and a growing international presence, Woodside recently cemented its size and scale with a major merger, bringing BHP‘s oil and gas portfolio under its umbrella. The business has a long ASX history, with its first shares hitting the boards back in 1971.

Looking at the fundamentals, three points stand out for Woodside:

• Dividend appeal: Woodside trades on a 5.11% dividend yield, which is fully franked. Over the past decade (and more), this company has consistently delivered strong, fully franked dividend payments, making it a core holding for many income investors.
• Valuation: Its P/E ratio sits at 13.94, with year-to-date return at a powerful 42.1% – a rare combination of value and recent momentum.
• Market scale: With a market cap just shy of $59 billion and 1.9 billion shares on issue, Woodside is a true heavyweight in the local resources space.

Woodside’s fully franked interim dividend was $0.57 (paid 25 Sep 2026), keeping with its reputation for reliable cash returns, according to its most recent dividend payouts.

The case for Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto is one of the world’s biggest diversified mining companies, with operations spanning iron ore, aluminium, copper, and even lithium. Headquartered in Australia but with a truly global footprint, Rio’s history stretches back to 1873 and it’s a familiar name for local and international investors alike. The company’s ASX listing in 1962 marked the beginning of a long, often prosperous journey for patient shareholders.

Notable features for Rio Tinto right now include:

• Earnings strength: With an earnings per share (EPS) of 7.382 and a dividend per share of $6.63, Rio’s scale translates into solid cashflow. The most recent interim dividend was $2.96 (paid 24 Sep 2026), fully franked.
• Valuation and yield: The P/E ratio is 15.86 – a slightly higher multiple than Woodside’s – with a current dividend yield of 3.97%, fully franked.
• Market heft: At $60.55 billion market cap and 2.51 billion shares outstanding, Rio is among the absolute largest stocks on the ASX.

That said, Rio’s year-to-date return is a more modest 18.2% compared to Woodside’s near-rocket 42.1%.

Valuation comparison

Here’s how the numbers stack up head-to-head on the key fundamentals worth highlighting:

Metric	Woodside Energy	Rio Tinto
Market Capitalisation	$58.72 billion	$60.55 billion
P/E Ratio	13.94	15.86
Dividend Yield	5.11% (100% franked)	3.97% (100% franked)
Dividend per Share	$1.63	$6.63
Earnings per Share	1.605	7.382
Year-to-date Return	42.1%	18.2%

Keep in mind sector norms for P/E can differ – mining giants often see a wider range of multiples versus energy – so I’m careful not to paint one as clearly “cheaper” than the other in an absolute sense. Both companies pay fully franked dividends.

Recent share price momentum

Comparing recent share price performance up to 1 October 2026.

• Woodside Energy: Closed at $30.89, down 3.1% for the day. Year-to-date gain is 42.1% as of 1 October 2026.
• Rio Tinto: Closed at $162.85, down 2.4% for the day. Year-to-date gain is 18.2% as of 1 October 2026.

Both stocks saw a dip on the most recent day, but Woodside’s share price has shown much stronger upward momentum so far in 2026.

Which is the better buy?

Both Woodside Energy and Rio Tinto are market leaders in their fields, boasting size, stability, and strong dividend records. But on the value side, I’d lean toward Woodside Energy as the standout right now. What tips me over is the combination of a lower P/E ratio (relative to Rio), a significantly higher fully franked dividend yield, and much stronger recent share price performance so far in 2026. Woodside’s ability to maintain a 5%+ yield on top of a 42% YTD return is a rare feat among large caps.

I also like the merger-driven growth story with BHP’s former oil and gas assets now embedded in its portfolio, supporting both scale and cashflow diversity. Of course, resource shares can see swings depending on the commodities cycle, but as I see it today, Woodside looks better value for anyone weighing these two ASX giants side by side.

The post Woodside Energy vs Rio Tinto: Which ASX 200 stock is better value? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Telstra vs Woodside: Which ASX dividend stock comes out on top?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• PLS vs BHP: Which ASX 200 mining stock looks better today?
• How much superannuation do I need to earn $56,000 per year in passive income?
• If I invest $15,000 in Woodside shares, how much passive income will I receive in 2027?

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial draft. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

Telstra vs Woodside shares: which dividend stock looks better now?

When you’re hunting for dependable dividend income from the ASX, Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) are two names most investors have pondered at some point. Both companies are giants in their sectors, both pay franked dividends, and both rank among the most widely held blue chips around. But if you’re weighing Telstra vs Woodside shares this month, which stock delivers the better overall package of yield, value, and momentum?

The case for Telstra

Telstra is Australia’s largest telecommunications and information services company. It offers a wide range of products including mobile, fixed, broadband, data, and digital services for residential and business customers. In recent years, Telstra has undertaken a major restructure and now operates via several business units, such as ServeCo and InfraCo, aiming to sharpen focus and capital allocation. Its presence still stretches internationally, but the core remains a dominant force in Australia.

On fundamentals, a few things stand out. Telstra’s market cap sits at $53.58 billion, making it one of the largest companies on the ASX. The dividend yield clocks in at 4.35%, with a high franking rate of just over 90%. Its current P/E ratio is 24.27, and Telstra has delivered a modest year-to-date return of 3.5%. According to its most recent public description, Telstra now oversees distinct subsidiaries, designed to streamline and modernise operations. Historically, Telstra has paid consistent franked dividends, appealing to income investors, though the absolute growth in those dividends has been modest.

The case for Woodside Energy

Woodside Energy operates as Australia’s largest independent oil and gas producer, with extensive offshore and onshore assets. The company recently boosted its international scale by merging with BHP’s petroleum business, making it a global energy player. Based in Perth, Woodside is a top-tier ASX heavyweight known for its focus on LNG, oil, and gas and for pursuing new energy opportunities.

Looking at the numbers, Woodside’s market cap is a hefty $58.72 billion. The company is currently serving up a 5.11% fully franked dividend yield – handily higher than Telstra’s. Its P/E ratio is 13.94, significantly lower than Telstra’s, indicating that the market is pricing Woodside’s earnings more conservatively. The company has posted a very strong year-to-date return of 42.1%, reflecting robust momentum. Historically, Woodside’s dividends tend to fluctuate along with commodity prices, but its commitment to returns is evident in a big dividend per share of $1.63 this year.

Valuation comparison

Here’s how Telstra and Woodside stack up on key quantitative measures:

Metric	Telstra	Woodside
Market Cap	$53.58 billion	$58.72 billion
P/E Ratio	24.27	13.94
Dividend Yield	4.35%	5.11%
Earnings Per Share (EPS)	0.199	1.605
Dividend Per Share	0.21	1.63
Franking	90.48%	100%

Note: While Telstra’s P/E and EPS are mathematically consistent, investors should keep in mind that Woodside’s substantially higher EPS aligns with its much greater dividend per share and yield. Both companies offer franked dividends, but Woodside’s are fully franked (100%), versus Telstra’s ~90%. Telstra trades on a much higher earnings multiple than Woodside. For context, these companies sit in very different sectors—telecommunications and energy—so direct P/E comparisons should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Recent share price momentum

Comparing recent share price performance up to October 2026:

• Telstra closed at $4.81 on 1 October 2026, down 0.41% from the previous session. Over the past month, its movement has been steady but lacked major gains. Its year-to-date return is 3.5%.
• Woodside closed at $30.89 on 1 October 2026, after a 3.11% decline that session. Despite that daily slip, the year-to-date return stands at a very strong 42.1%.

Both companies have seen some day-to-day volatility, but Woodside has clearly outpaced Telstra by a wide margin in year-to-date share price performance.

Which is the better buy?

If I had to choose between Telstra and Woodside this month for a dividend-focused portfolio, my pick would be Woodside Energy. The reasons? Woodside’s yield is higher at 5.11%, it’s fully franked, and the dividend per share is substantially larger. Its valuation also looks more attractive, with a P/E ratio well below Telstra’s, suggesting the market doesn’t have especially high near-term growth expectations priced in. Combine that with Woodside’s dazzling 42% year-to-date share price rise, and I think the market’s enthusiasm is justified by both operational progress (post-BHP merger) and solid cash returns.

Telstra is hardly a poor choice for those wanting defensive, steady dividend flow, but the growth and value currently appear more exciting at Woodside, even after such a strong run. Of course, energy stocks carry their own risks—earnings and payout levels are more tied to commodity cycles than Telstra’s relatively predictable telco business. But based strictly on this snapshot of yield, franking, value, and momentum, I’d lean toward Woodside as the better dividend buy right now.

The post Telstra vs Woodside: Which ASX dividend stock comes out on top? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• A leading fund just bought these top ASX 200 shares
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• How much superannuation do I need to earn $56,000 per year in passive income?
• If I invest $15,000 in Woodside shares, how much passive income will I receive in 2027?
• How many Woodside shares do I need to buy for $1,000 per month of passive income?

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial draft. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.