Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares closed around 1% lower on Wednesday afternoon, at $173.92 a piece.

This latest trade price means Rio Tinto shares have now fallen around 11% from an all-time high of $194.47 recorded in early June. 

But it’s still been an incredible success story for the ASX mining stock recently. Even after cooling from a record high, its shares are still around 18% higher year to date and 66% higher than a year ago.

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) closed around 0.2% higher on Wednesday afternoon and is up around 1% year to date.

So, if I bought $5,000 of Rio Tinto shares 12 months ago, what would it be worth today?

Rio Tinto shares were trading around $105 each this time last year, 66% lower than the share price at the time of writing.

That means your $5,000 investment 12 months ago would now be worth $8,300.

Can the miner’s shares return to record highs?

After an impressive rally over the past 12 months, it looks like Rio Tinto shares have now peaked.

Market Index data shows that the majority of brokers have a hold rating on the miner’s shares. But the latest $173.26 target price now implies a very minor 0.4% downside for Rio Tinto shares, at the time of writing.

TradingView data reflects something similar. Eight out of 16 analysts have a hold rating on the shares. Another six have a buy or strong buy rating, and two rate the shares as a strong sell.

The average $184.01 target price implies a potential 6% upside at the time of writing. Although some more bullish analysts still think the share price could increase another 24% to $215.32. Then the more bearish of the bunch forecast Rio Tinto shares to fall up to 16% to a minimum $145.84 price target, at the time of writing.

The team at Bell Potter are very bullish on Rio Tinto shares and believes that we’re only at the beginning of a sustained commodity supercycle. The broker also believes that Rio Tinto is the highest-quality way to gain exposure to copper and aluminium.

Meanwhile, Macquarie lifted its price target on the miner’s shares to $188 in mid-June and downgraded its stance to a hold rating.

The team at Morgans also has a hold rating on the shares. The broker thinks the miner’s balance sheet is strong and dividends are well-supported, but warns that the near-term earnings outlook looks balanced rather than clearly positive. 

The post If I’d invested $5,000 in Rio Tinto shares 12 months ago, guess what I’d have now! appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

A falling share price can create one of the hardest decisions in investing.

Should you buy more, keep holding, or cut your losses?

The answer depends on what has changed. A share price fall can create a genuine opportunity when the market has become too pessimistic about a strong business.

It can also be a warning sign when the company keeps missing expectations, burning cash, or relying on investors to fund the story.

Here is a simple way to think through it.

Start with the reason for the fall

The first step is to understand why the share price has declined.

Some falls are driven by market-wide pressure. Rising interest rates, recession fears, sector selloffs, and valuation resets can drag down good companies along with weaker ones.

Other falls are more company-specific. Earnings downgrades, weak sales, management changes, balance sheet stress, or repeated execution problems can point to deeper issues.

This distinction is important. A quality company caught in a broad selloff can become more attractive as the price falls. A company with a deteriorating business model may become riskier with every decline.

Check whether the business still has substance

The next question is whether the company still has something valuable underneath the falling share price.

This could be a strong brand, essential product, loyal customer base, high switching costs, valuable infrastructure, recurring revenue, or exposure to a market with long-term demand.

ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD) is a useful example of a fallen share that could still justify a positive view.

Its share price has been under pressure, but the company remains a global leader in sleep apnoea treatment and connected respiratory care. The long-term need for better diagnosis, treatment, masks, devices, and patient support has not disappeared. That gives investors a real business to assess, rather than simply a share price chart to react to.

When a company still has scale, earnings power, and a large market opportunity, buying on weakness can make sense for patient investors.

Look at the numbers, not just the story

Shares often come with persuasive narratives.

Management may talk about technology, innovation, disruption, and large future markets. Those claims become far more useful when they are supported by revenue, cash flow, customer adoption, and improving economics.

This is where Brainchip Holdings Ltd (ASX: BRN) looks very different.

Its shares are down 16% over the past 12 months and 70% over the past five years. It has consistently been making new 52-week lows since 2022, while the company continues to talk up its technology but has delivered next to no revenue and significant dilution from share issues.

That is a warning for investors. A share can keep looking cheaper as the price falls, while the underlying business fails to build the revenue base needed to support the valuation.

Decide what would change your mind

Investors should know what they need to see before buying more or continuing to hold.

For a high-quality ASX share, that might be evidence that margins are stabilising, demand remains strong, new products are gaining traction, or management is executing well.

For a speculative company, the bar should be higher. Investors may want to see meaningful revenue, commercial contracts, less reliance on capital raisings, and proof that customers are willing to pay for the technology.

Buy, hold, or sell?

Buying more can make sense when the business remains strong, the balance sheet is sound, and the market appears too focused on short-term concerns.

Holding can be sensible when the company is still attractive but there is not enough evidence yet to increase exposure.

Selling becomes easier to justify when the company’s problems are worsening, the story is not translating into financial progress, or shareholders are being diluted while waiting for promised growth.

The best decision is rarely based on the share price fall alone. It likely comes from comparing today’s price with the quality of the business, the strength of the balance sheet, the evidence in the numbers, and the probability that the company can create value over the years ahead.

The post How to decide whether to buy, hold, or sell a fallen ASX share appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The a2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) share price is in focus today after the Board declared a $300 million fully franked special dividend, following recent approval from Chinese authorities to transition product registrations to a2 branded infant formula.

What did The a2 Milk Company report?

• Declared a fully franked special dividend of NZ$300 million (41.36 cents per share)
• Dividend payment set for 24 July 2026
• Ex-dividend date: 8 July 2026; record date: 9 July 2026
• Dividend carries a franking credit of 17.72 cents per share
• Triggered by China regulatory approval for a2 branded infant formula registrations

What else do investors need to know?

The special dividend comes after the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) in China gave the green light to transition two China label infant formula product registrations, linked to the company’s Pokeno facility, to the a2 brand. This regulatory milestone appears to strengthen the company’s footprint in one of its largest markets.

The Board confirmed that the dividend amount has been rounded to 41.36 cents per share for communication purposes, but the actual payment will be calculated based on a gross distribution of 41.355 cents. The announcement follows a series of regulatory updates in recent months.

What did The a2 Milk Company management say?

Chair Pip Greenwood said:

With the necessary China regulatory approvals now in place, the Board is pleased to declare a $300 million special dividend. This reflects our commitment to delivering shareholder returns while maintaining disciplined capital management.

What’s next for a2 Milk Company?

Looking ahead, a2 Milk Company is set to benefit from the new regulatory approvals in China, which may underpin further growth in its infant milk formula segment. The special dividend highlights the Board’s focus on balancing shareholder returns with ongoing investment needs.

Investors will likely monitor progress in China and any future updates regarding capital management or new product registrations.

A2 Milk Company share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, a2 Milk Company shares have declined 13%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post A2 Milk declares $300 million special dividend after securing China approval appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.