Choosing one mining share to own through an entire commodity cycle is never easy.

Prices move, projects disappoint, and yesterday’s market favourite can quickly lose its shine.

Even with those uncertainties, one ASX miner stands above the rest for me. That is BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

A strong foundation in iron ore

BHP still earns substantial cash from its Western Australian iron ore operations.

Iron ore may lack the excitement attached to newer commodities, yet it provides BHP with a huge production base, established infrastructure, and assets capable of generating strong margins when market conditions are favourable.

That cash flow supports dividends, funds new projects, and gives management more flexibility during weaker commodity markets.

Scale alone does not guarantee good returns, especially when mining companies become too enthusiastic with capital. However, BHP can invest through cycles that may force smaller competitors to slow down or abandon projects.

I think that financial strength provides a solid foundation for everything else the company is building.

Copper is changing the business

The most exciting part of BHP’s portfolio in my opinion is copper.

During the first half of FY26, copper contributed 51% of underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation, making it the group’s largest earnings contributor.

That is a significant change for a company traditionally associated with iron ore.

Copper demand could keep rising as electricity networks expand and investment flows into renewable energy, data centres, transport, manufacturing, and urban infrastructure. Bringing new supply online can also take many years, which may support attractive economics for established producers with large, low-cost assets.

BHP already owns interests in major operations such as Escondida, Spence, and its South Australian copper assets. It is also working on expansion pathways and future options that could increase production through the 2030s.

I prefer that position to betting on a junior miner that still needs to finance, permit, construct, and successfully ramp up its first major project.

BHP gives investors copper growth from a much stronger starting point.

Potash adds another direction

The Jansen project in Canada will move BHP into potash, a fertiliser ingredient linked to crop yields and global food production.

First production from Stage 1 is expected in mid-2027.

Jansen could eventually become a large, long-life operation, giving BHP an earnings stream driven by different forces from iron ore and copper.

The project has also reminded investors that large mining developments rarely follow a perfect plan. Costs have increased, while Stage 2 has been delayed and become more expensive.

Management will need to show that the finished operation can justify the amount of shareholder capital being committed.

Even with those concerns, I like the strategic logic. A successful potash business would broaden BHP’s portfolio and give it another area where scale could become a lasting advantage.

Why BHP shares are my pick

Every mining investment comes with commodity, operational, political, and project risks.

For me, BHP offers the best balance. It has iron ore assets generating cash today, copper operations becoming increasingly central to earnings, and a potash business that could support growth for decades.

The company also has the balance sheet, technical expertise, infrastructure, and global relationships needed to develop large projects that would be beyond the reach of many competitors.

Foolish takeaway

I would choose BHP shares because its future is becoming broader at the same time as its existing assets continue supporting the business.

Iron ore gives the company financial strength, copper provides an attractive growth runway, and potash could open another substantial source of earnings.

There will be disappointing projects and weaker commodity markets along the way. That comes with owning any miner.

Across a full cycle, I think BHP has the strongest collection of assets and growth options available to ASX investors. That is why it remains my preferred ASX mining share.

The post Why I think BHP is the best ASX mining share appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How to build an ASX dividend portfolio that keeps paying you for decades
• What is Morgan’s updated view on Rio Tinto and BHP shares?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Buy, hold, sell: BHP, CBA, and Rio Tinto shares
• Does Macquarie rate BHP shares a buy, hold or sell right now?

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

A stronger gold production forecast for FY27 from Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) has failed to impress the analysts at Macquarie, who have downgraded their price target on the company.

The Macquarie team still thinks investors can prosper, however, with an outperform rating on the stock and a bullish price target, which we’ll get to shortly.

First, let’s look at what Regis said in a statement to the ASX late last week.

How much gold will Regis Resources produce?

The company said it expected to produce 360,000 to 400,000 ounces of gold this financial year across its Duketon and Tropicana operations, at an all-in sustaining cost of $2,990 to $3,390 per ounce.

This compares to 379,000 ounces produced in FY26. The company also expects to spend $80 to $90 million on exploration.

Regis added:

Duketon gold production for FY27 is expected to be higher than FY26 and slightly skewed towards the second half of the year. The increase is a result of higher production from Garden Well and Rosemont. AISC guidance reflects increased diesel price assumptions along with the previously noted inclusion of the opportunistic higher cost ounces from BuckWell. At Tropicana, production guidance is down slightly year on year. Lower open pit ore production at Havana results in a higher proportion of lower grade stockpile mill feed, compared to FY26. AISC impacts of this lower production are reflected in the guidance for this year.

The company will also spend $30 to $35 million at its McPhillamys project as it progresses towards a final investment decision (FID) expected in the first half of calendar year 2028.

ASX gold shares still looking like good value

Macquarie said in its note to clients that the midpoint of the company’s guidance, 380,000 ounces, was 3% below Visible Alpha consensus estimates, while costs were higher.

But the analysts said the company had plenty of options.

With more than $1.1 billion cash in the bank and limited short-term growth capex requirements, RRL has ample scope for increased capital management and longer dated growth optionality such as McPhillamys which has pre-production capital requirements of $1.08 billion under the Integrated Waste Landform (IWL) construction approach. But with FID not expected before 1HCY28, RRL has significant optionality to continue to build cash, increase capital management, or look to further M&A opportunities.

Macquarie said the company’s dividend yield of about 6% is “exceptional” for a gold stock, and Regis had the balance sheet capacity to increase this.

Following Regis’ update, Macquarie has reduced its price target on the company from $8 to $6.80, compared to $5.66 at the time of writing.

The post Which ASX gold stock has Macquarie tipped to jump more than 20%? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• Regis Resources upgrades FY27 production guidance and cost outlook
• Buy, hold, sell: Regis Resources, Mineral Resources, Woolworths shares
• Regis Resources steps back from Vault Minerals bid, secures break fee
• Gold, cash, and a takeover twist: Why this ASX 200 gold stock is climbing today

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The biggest dividend yields on the ASX can be tempting. More income today sounds great, but a successful ASX dividend portfolio isn’t built by chasing the highest payout.

The real goal is to own high-quality businesses that can keep paying – and ideally growing – their dividends through economic booms, recessions, and everything in between.

Start with reliable cash flow

If you want dividends that last, begin with companies that generate consistent earnings.

Take Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW). Grocery shopping isn’t glamorous, but it’s incredibly resilient. Whether the economy is booming or slowing, Australians still need food, household essentials, and everyday necessities.

Sure, Woolworths faces competition and rising costs, but its defensive business model has helped it deliver dependable cash flow for decades. That’s exactly what income investors want for their ASX dividend portfolio.

Add essential services

Next, look for businesses people simply can’t live without. Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) fits that description. Australians rely on its mobile and broadband networks every day for work, streaming, banking, shopping, and staying connected.

While Telstra continues investing heavily in its network and faces competitive pressure, telecommunications remain an essential service, supporting relatively stable earnings and dividends.

Diversify your income

Here’s where many dividend investors go wrong. They overload their ASX dividend portfolio with banks or miners.

Instead, spread your income across different industries.

APA Group (ASX: APA) owns and operates thousands of kilometres of gas pipelines and energy infrastructure across Australia. These long-life assets generate relatively predictable cash flows through long-term contracts, making APA a popular choice for income investors.

Property can also deserve a place. HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (ASX: HDN) owns neighbourhood shopping centres anchored by supermarkets and other essential retailers. Because many tenants sign long-term leases, rental income tends to be relatively stable.

Investors should still keep an eye on interest rates, debt levels, and tenant quality, but selective exposure to property can add another valuable income stream.

Don’t forget dividend growth

A high dividend today doesn’t guarantee a high dividend tomorrow. The best ASX dividend portfolios also include companies capable of growing their earnings over time.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) has rewarded shareholders handsomely over the years through both capital growth and dividends. While mining profits can fluctuate with commodity prices, BHP’s world-class assets and strong balance sheet position it well over the long term.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) is another standout. Its dividend yield isn’t usually among the highest on the ASX, but that’s missing the point.

The retail and industrial giant has consistently reinvested capital, improved its businesses, and allocated money to attractive growth opportunities. Over time, that has translated into steadily rising earnings and a growing dividend.

Foolish takeaway

Building a successful ASX dividend portfolio isn’t about chasing the biggest yield.

It’s about owning high-quality businesses across different sectors that generate reliable cash flow today while still having room to grow tomorrow. That combination can help investors build an income stream that not only lasts for decades but has the potential to keep growing alongside it.

The post How to build an ASX dividend portfolio that keeps paying you for decades appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: SKS Technologies, Yancoal, Wesfarmers shares
• Here’s the dividend forecast out to 2028 for Woolworths shares
• What is Morgan’s updated view on Rio Tinto and BHP shares?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• How much is needed in superannuation to target a $100,000 annual passive income?

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group and Telstra Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.