Shares in ASX defence stock, Austal Ltd (ASX: ASB), have fallen further into the red in Tuesday trading. 

At the time of writing, the shares are down another 0.5% and are trading at $3.38 each.

The drop means the shares have now fallen by more than 50% year to date and are also around 45% lower than this time last year.

What does Austal do?

Austal is an Australian-based global shipbuilding company specialising in the design, construction, and support of defence and commercial vessels.

These include naval vessels, defence surface warfare combatants, and law enforcement patrol boats.

The company also installs and maintains vessel command and control systems, communication and radar technology, and information management systems.

What happened to the ASX defence stock?

Its share price spiked to an all-time high of $8.76 in January as tailwinds pushed ASX defence sector stocks higher overall.

The company also won a few new contracts in late December, including a contract extension worth more than $135 million to build two new Evolved Cape-class Patrol Boats for the Australian Border Force, bringing the total contracted to 14 vessels. 

Austal was also awarded a $1.029 billion design and construct contract to build 18 Landing Craft Medium (LCM) vessels for the Australian Army under the Commonwealth’s Strategic Shipbuilding Agreement.

In January, US President Donald Trump also said the 2027 US defence budget should be US$1.5 trillion, well above the US$901 million approved so far. Other countries also began bolstering their defence spending.

In February, Austal posted its first-half FY26 results, revealing a 34.4% year-on-year increase in revenue. Its EBIT also climbed 41.3%, and net profit climbed 21.4%. But it also cut its earnings guidance for FY26, citing an accounting issue. 

The news spooked investors and triggered a sell-off that Austal shares have struggled to recover from.

Surprisingly, even news of the increase of conflict in the Middle East didn’t do enough to convince investors to buy back in.

The shares are now down 61% from that January peak.

Are Austal shares a buy, sell, or hold now?

If broker forecasts are anything to go by, it’s time to load up on Austal shares while they’re still cheap.

TradingView data shows that there are only three analyst ratings on the ASX defence stock. One is a hold, and the other two are a strong buy.

They all agree on some element of upside ahead, although the range is pretty significant.

The minimum $4.10 target price implies a potential 20% upside.

The average $6.14 target price implies a potential 80% upside, at the time of writing.

And the maximum $7.71 target price implies that the shares could jump 126% higher over the next 12 months.

The post Down 61%: Can this ASX defence stock rebound, or is it time to sell up? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here’s why investors should be concerned about Austal shares moving forward
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) shares have climbed around another 0.5% to a fresh two-year high of $38.08 in Tuesday trade.

At one point this morning, the petroleum company’s shares were trading as high as $38.33.

Today’s increase means the shares are now up 19% for the year to date, and have rallied 40% higher over the past 12 months.

What has pushed Ampol shares to a multi-year high?

Ampol’s shares have been driven higher by a combination of volatile global oil supply and company growth, including improved production and profit.

The company is Australia’s largest transport energy distributor and retailer, with more than 1,800 Ampol-branded service stations across the country. 

Unsurprisingly, its shares have rocketed higher on the back of conflict in the Middle East and concerns about global oil supply.

Ampol shares have jumped 37% higher since the war between the US and Iran ramped up in late February.

The shares suffered a temporary lull towards the back end of June when it looked like the two nations had reached a peace deal. Even so, the ceasefire was unstable, and even though the Strait of Hormuz partially reopened, supply continued to be very constrained and unpredictable. 

But Ampol shares rocketed higher again this morning as the peace talks fell apart in early July and the region descended into war again.

According to Trading Economics, the price of WTI crude oil has also surged higher this month, and is trading over the US$83 per barrel mark at the time of writing. 

There is still some way to go before the price returns to the US$113 per barrel level seen in April, but it is still significantly higher than the US$60 per barrel levels seen earlier this year.

Prices for Brent oil, gasoline, heating oil, and Ethanol have also jumped higher over the past month.

It’s not only oil supply and prices supporting this year’s share price rise.

Ampol has also posted a few updates that have gathered investor attention. In June, Ampol received the green light, with conditions, from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) for a proposed acquisition of fuel and convenience store operator EG Australia. 

The company previously confirmed a 10% increase in refinery production, higher refiner margins, and increased production in its Q1 FY26 trading update.

What are brokers tipping for Ampol shares next?

It looks like we could see some more upside for Ampol shares over the next 12 months.

Market Index data shows that the majority of brokers have a buy rating on the shares. The $38.75 target price currently implies a potential 2% upside.

TradingView data shows something similar. Out of 10 analysts, eight have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock. One more rates Ampol shares as a hold and one as a sell.

The average $38.29 target price implies a potential 1% upside over the next 12 months, at the time of writing. Whereas, the maximum $46.50 target price implies the shares have the potential to surge another 23%.

The post Ampol shares rallied 40% to hit fresh 2-year high. Buy, sell or hold? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• ASX 200 energy shares rebound after US-Iran peace deal falls apart
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Ampol launches new $400m subordinated notes facility

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL) shares are charging higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) coal stock closed yesterday trading for $5.68. At the time of writing, shares are changing hands for $5.96 apiece, up 4.9%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.4% at this same time.

Yancoal shares have been strong performers in 2026, up 20.2% since market close on 31 December. That compares favourably to the more modest 0.5% gain posted by the ASX 200 over this same period.

And that’s not including the 12.2 cents per share fully-franked dividend Yancoal paid eligible stockholders on 15 April.

The ASX 200 coal stock trades on a fully-franked trailing dividend yield of 3.1%.

But following these strong share price gains, is the coal miner still a buy today?

Yancoal shares: Buy, hold, or sell?

Investor Pulse’s Mark Elzayed recently analysed the outlook for the resurgent coal miner (courtesy of The Bull).

“Yancoal is balancing strong fundamentals against a near term overhang,” he said.

Elzayed elaborated:

In April, YAL announced it would acquire 80% of the Kestrel metallurgical coal mine in the Bowen Basin for US$2.4 billion. The acquisition is accretive over the long term, but adds leverage.

Summarising his hold recommendation on Yancoal shares, Elzayed concluded:

Diesel cost inflation threatens to push 2026 unit costs toward the top end of its guidance range. Consensus targets of about $7.02 on July 15 imply upside, but integration and coal price risks argue for holding the stock rather than adding.

What’s the latest from the ASX 200 coal stock?

Yancoal reported its second-quarter (Q2 2026) results after market close on Monday.

Highlights for the three months to 30 June included a 20% quarter on quarter lift in attributable saleable coal production to 10.8 million tonnes. That presents a new quarterly production record.

The Yancoal share price also looks to be getting a lift today, with the company reporting that the average prices it received for most of its seaborne thermal coal increased by 14% to 19% over the quarter.

As for the rising diesel costs that Elzayed mentioned above, Yancoal noted:

While diesel price pressure has eased compared to early 2Q, some price uncertainty remains. We are still incurring higher prices, but the outlook for the overall impact on our 2026 operating costs has moderated.

Commenting on the company’s recent US$2.4 billion acquisition, Yancoal CEO Sharif Burra said:

In April, we announced the acquisition of an 80% interest in the Kestrel Coal Mine. Adding a large, long-life asset that produces hard-coking coal at strong margins is a compelling step forward in Yancoal’s growth strategy.

The post Up 20%, are Yancoal shares still a good buy right now? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Buy, hold, sell: SKS Technologies, Yancoal, Wesfarmers shares
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• ASX 200 energy shares rebound after US-Iran peace deal falls apart
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.