• Alibaba Drops After Projecting Slowing Growth in Uncertain Times

    Alibaba Drops After Projecting Slowing Growth in Uncertain Times(Bloomberg) — Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. slid after projecting revenue growth will slow this year, reflecting post-Covid 19 economic uncertainty at home as well as the potential for U.S.-Chinese tensions to disrupt its business.Its stock slid as much as 4% in Hong Kong Monday, after a drop of almost 6% in New York before the weekend. The e-commerce giant forecast sales growth this year of at least 27.5% to more than 650 billion yuan ($91 billion), down from 35% previously and slightly below analysts’ estimates. While it posted a better-than-expected 22% rise in March quarter revenue of 114.3 billion yuan, that marked its slowest pace of expansion on record.Online shopping began to bounce back from March, executives said Friday. But the tepid outlook demonstrates the world’s second-largest economy has yet to fully shake off Covid-19, with consumers still hesitant about spending on big-ticket items. Asia’s most valuable corporation is tackling also the rise of rivals such as ByteDance Ltd. and Pinduoduo Inc. And the Tmall operator is going head-to-head with Tencent Holdings Ltd. for internet leadership in everything from online media to payments and cloud computing. JD.com Inc., the No. 2 Chinese online retailer, forecast better-than-expected revenue this quarter.“The market is a bit disappointed despite the strength given 2Q guidance of 20-30% YoY growth for JD and 99% GMV growth in 1Q20 for PDD,” CICC analyst Natalie Wu wrote. “We regard Alibaba’s advantage as a market leader as intact and unchanged in the longer run, though it may take several quarters for market sentiment to swing back.”Read more: Alibaba Sales Growth Plumbs New Lows While Uncertainty EscalatesAlibaba has lost more than $70 billion of market value since the coronavirus first erupted in January, and now has to grapple with not just an uncertain global economic environment but also any potential fallout from U.S.-Chinese financial tensions. On Friday, executives sought to assuage concerns about a U.S. bill that mandates much closer accounting scrutiny of U.S.-listed Chinese companies and may bar them from American bourses.Chief Financial Officer Maggie Wu said Friday Alibaba’s financial statements have been consistently prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP accounting measures and were beyond reproach. “The integrity of Alibaba’s financial statements speak for itself, we have been an SEC filer since 2014 and hold ourselves to the highest standard,” she told analysts on a conference call. “We will endeavor to comply with any legislation whose aim is to protect and bring transparency to investors who buy securities on U.S. stock exchanges.”The bigger short-term challenge is in reviving growth: Alibaba’s bread-and-butter customer management or marketing business grew just 3% in the March quarter. Much of that stems from weaker consumer sentiment during the coronavirus-stricken quarter, when total Chinese e-commerce rose just 5.9% or at less than a third of 2019’s pace, according to government data. Jefferies analysts led by Thomas Chong wrote that Alibaba’s guidance was in fact a positive when viewed against an array of uncertainties gripping the post-Covid 19 global economic environment.What Bloomberg Intelligence SaysUser engagement and transaction volume have rebounded in April and May to precrisis levels, which bodes well for normalized sales growth ahead, especially as merchant-support measures are gradually rolled back.\- Vey-Sern Ling and Tiffany Tam, analystsClick here for the research.Rival PDD posted a revenue rise of 44% on Friday, down sharply from 91% in the previous quarter but ahead of expectations. Its sales and marketing expenses jumped 49%. PDD’s shares climbed 15% Friday.Alibaba’s March-quarter net income was 3.2 billion yuan, down 88% from a year ago when it booked an 18.7 billion yuan one-time gain on investments. In February, Alibaba declared a waiver of some service fees for merchants struggling financially during the outbreak on its main direct-to-consumer Tmall platform. In April, the company rolled out a new 10-billion-yuan subsidy program for Tmall users to buy electronics, encroaching on JD.com’s traditional turf. These initiatives may further compress margins for the June quarter.“The challenging part is for them to achieve the same amount of growth this year,” said Steven Zhu, a Shanghai-based analyst with Pacific Epoch. “Just because they are too big, for the same amount of growth, they need to spend much more effort.”But executives were confident in a gradual e-commerce recovery over the year. Beyond its main business, younger divisions such as its cloud computing arm should buoy the bottom line. That division’s revenue jumped 58% in the quarter.“Despite a challenging quarter due to reduced economic activities in light of the COVID-19 pandemic in China, we achieved our annual revenue guidance,” Wu said in a statement. “Although the pandemic negatively impacted most of our domestic core commerce businesses starting in late January, we have seen a steady recovery since March.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • 3 ASX sectors to benefit from local supply chains

    Map of Australia with upward pointing arrow chart

    The figure of iron ore magnate Lang Hancock loomed large when I was a child in the Pilbara of Western Australia. In the mid-1970s, I had already seen my family and others build 6 towns and open a number of giant mine sites. I was convinced that anything was possible. During that time, Lang and Queensland Premier Joh Bjelke Petersen had a plan. They wanted a cross country rail line that would take iron ore to the east and coal to the west, with blast furnaces on each side. 

    Lang’s view was that we were never going to be able to defend the country. So we had to make ourselves invaluable to every one of the nuclear powers. I still believe he was right. Today, this idea of self sufficiency matters more than ever.

    Local steel

    One look at the size of our iron ore industry and it becomes very clear just how important steel is globally. As post-pandemic stimulus spending starts to take hold, it is going to be even more important. 

    BlueScope Steel Limited (ASX: BSL) has been diligently working away in the background of the Australian economy. This was in a period when its only competitor became insolvent and was acquired by foreign investors. 

    The company has managed to achieve a cashflow compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.6% over the past 10 years. At the same time, it has averaged a 4 year average return on capital employed (ROCE) of 13%, which is impressive. It is currently selling at an earnings yield of 18.36% (at the time of writing).

    In my opinion the company is clearly undervalued and stands to gain if organisations start to source more steel locally.

    Local energy

    Australians have often wondered why a country that leads the world in LNG production, has 30% of recoverable uranium deposits and the 3rd largest coal deposits on the planet has such high electricity prices. Naturally, the Prime Minister’s Manufacturing Taskforce has quickly arrived at the truism that high energy and electricity costs are a barrier to growth in manufacturing.

    Until a recent long term deal, this was a cornerstone of complaints from Tomago Aluminium, owned by CSR Limited (ASX: CSR). If the government acts on its promise to reduce layers of bureaucracy costs, the LNG producers stand to gain. 

    This would include industry giant Woodside Petroleum Limited (ASX: WPL) and Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG).

    Local manufacturing

    The true beneficiaries of local supply chains would be those companies already manufacturing at home. Of these I have always liked Reliance Worldwide Corporation Ltd (ASX: RWC). Reliance is involved in the design and manufacture of water flow, control and monitoring products and solutions. A lot of this company’s manufacturing plants are still located in Australia and New Zealand. I am hopeful cost reduction and a “buy Australian first” approach will benefit it too. 

    For more ASX shares worth a closer look, download our free report on companies that could take off after the pandemic.

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    Daryl Mather has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Reliance Worldwide Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Reliance Worldwide Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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