The ASX 200 is dominated by two blue-chip companies:

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)
• BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

These companies are the largest ASX-listed stocks by market cap. For this reason, they make up a fundamental part of many investors’ portfolios.

You might own these shares without even knowing it 

Many Australians own shares in BHP and Commonwealth Bank without ever buying them directly. 

This is because their superannuation funds and many ASX-listed ETFs automatically invest in the largest companies on the Australian share market. 

Since BHP and Commonwealth Bank are among the largest companies in the ASX, they’re common holdings in diversified super funds and broad-market ETFs, meaning millions of Australians have exposure to these shares simply through their retirement savings or index investments.

According to a recent report, these two companies account for almost 20% of the ASX 200 index. 

So if you own an ASX 200 or 300 tracking ETF, the performance of CBA and BHP shares have a big impact on the performance of your portfolio. 

A wide gap in 2026

Despite the two companies being vital parts of portfolios, they have performed very differently so far this year. 

BHP shares have risen by 24% year to date, while CBA shares are up just 4%. 

BHP’s 2026 rally has been driven by genuine structural tailwinds. 

Copper prices have surged on electrification, AI-driven data centre demand, and grid upgrades. For the first time in the company’s history, copper now contributes more than half of group earnings. 

A resilient iron ore price has added further support, giving BHP two strong earnings engines rather than one and thanks to the operating leverage inherent in mining, that extra revenue flows largely to the bottom line and the dividend. 

Meanwhile, CBA’s flat performance reflects a different dynamic: the bank continues to deliver solid results, with growing cash earnings and healthy lending volumes, but it already trades at a significant valuation premium to its big four peers. 

So are these shares a buy? Here is the glass half full and glass half empty case for both.

The bull and bear case

For those looking for a reason to buy BHP shares, the bull case is simple: Copper and iron ore prices are strong, and copper demand looks set to keep growing thanks to AI, data centres, and electrification. 

However on the flip side, BHP shares have already risen 50% in the last 12 months. 

This means much of the good news may be priced in. Furthermore, a pullback in copper or iron ore prices, or rising costs on projects could quickly compress margins.

Meanwhile, for CBA shares optimists would argue CBA’s premium valuation is earned through best-in-class execution, a dominant deposit franchise, superior technology investment, and consistent market share gains in a stable banking sector. 

However, bears see a stock priced for perfection, trading well above peers. 

This suggests limited room for further upside – and outsized downside risk if growth disappoints or Australian housing conditions deteriorate.

The post The bull and bear case for CBA and BHP shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX consumer discretionary stock Jumbo Interactive Ltd (ASX: JIN) soared 10% yesterday. 

Jumbo Interactive operates Oz Lotteries, a reseller of digital lottery tickets (e.g., Powerball, Oz Lotto) in Australia, and provides lottery software platforms and lottery management expertise to government and charity lotteries, primarily in Australia, the UK, and Canada.

Investors were jumping on board after the company released an updated FY26 outlook.

The 10% rise was a welcome change for investors as the lottery company has seen its share price fall almost 40% year to date.

What did the company report?

Yesterday, the consumer discretionary company provided an update to its FY26 Outlook ahead of the scheduled release of its FY26 results on 27 August 2026.

• Dream UK: EBITDA for the 8.5-month period has been revised down to £7.0-7.3m (previously £8.0-8.3m).
• Dream US: EBITDA for the 8-month period has been upgraded to US$5.2-5.5m (prev. US$2.7m-3.0m).

Dream UK and Dream US are lottery businesses that Jumbo Interactive has acquired. 

What is Bell Potter’s view?

Following the announcement, Bell Potter provided updated guidance on the consumer discretionary stock. 

Commenting on the release, Bell Potter said the downgrade of Dream UK reflects increased business investment during the founder transition period, new market-testing initiatives, and seasonality. 

Despite this, the business remains on a strong trajectory with expected annualised year-on-year growth of between 20% and 25%.

Meanwhile, commenting on the Dream US update, the broker said this strong performance was driven by an increased number of draws (29 draws in FY26e vs 16 previously) and favourable draw timing. 

JIN will migrate Dream US onto the Jumbo Lottery Platform (JLP) and a new app in 1Q27. We are pleased that JIN is already seeing revenue synergies in this business and are incrementally more confident of further synergies following JLP integration.

Minimal upside for ASX consumer discretionary stock

Despite the 10% jump in share price yesterday, Bell Potter appears to see this as a one off spike rather than a sign of further growth. 

The broker has retained its hold recommendation on the ASX consumer discretionary stock. 

It has slightly raised its price target to $7.20 (previously $7.10). 

From yesterday’s closing price of $7.18, this indicates little to no upside in the next 12 months. 

Although we are encouraged with the improvement in Dream US and Stride, we continue to see risks to market share as TLC’s offering improves and as new players play lotteries. We await evidence of positive market share data during periods of strong Powerball jackpots before we turn more positive on the stock.

The post Is this ASX consumer discretionary stock a buy after jumping 10% yesterday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Jumbo Interactive. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Jumbo Interactive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

As we pass the halfway mark of the calendar year, exploring the top-performing ASX ETFs can be a great way to assess which sectors and markets are performing well in 2026. 

Global conflict, inflation and high interest rates have dominated headlines this year. 

These have weighed on markets here in Australia. 

As a result, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has risen just 0.4% year to date. 

However, there have been several ASX ETFs that have shaken headwinds and raced ahead of Australia’s benchmark index. 

Here are three in particular that have performed well this year. 

Global X Semiconductor ETF (ASX: SEMI)

An emerging theme this year has been the surge in semiconductor-related companies. 

A semiconductor is a material like silicon that can be precisely controlled to conduct or block electricity. This lets engineers build the tiny transistor switches that make up computer chips. 

It’s critical to the AI buildout because every bit of AI training and inference runs on these chips.

This ASX ETF has harnessed this momentum and enjoyed a rise of 66% year to date. 

The fund from Global X seeks to invest in companies that stand to potentially benefit from the broader adoption of tech-enabled devices that require semiconductors. 

Investors have been using a “picks and shovels” approach to AI, which has benefited this fund. 

During a gold rush, the safer bet isn’t panning for gold yourself, it’s selling the pickaxes to everyone who is. 

Investors are applying the same logic to AI. They are essentially moving money into companies that supply the AI buildout rather than betting on which AI application or model wins.

Global X Cybersecurity ETF (ASX: BUGG)

Another strong-performing fund this year has been this cybersecurity-focused ETF.

It seeks to invest in companies that stand to benefit from the increased adoption of cybersecurity technology, particularly those whose principal business is in the development and management of security protocols preventing intrusion and attacks on systems, networks, applications, computers, and mobile devices.

Increasing reliance on digital ecosystems has left individuals, businesses, and governments vulnerable to the exponential rise of cyber threats, and this has led to increased investment in the sector. 

This growth has led to a 21% rise for this fund year to date. 

Betashares Global Momentum ETF (ASX: GTUM)

This ASX ETF is one of the newest funds on the ASX – listing in February this year. 

In just a short span, it has made a big impact, rising 18% in that period. 

GTUM aims to track the performance of an index (before fees and expenses) comprising a portfolio of global developed markets companies (excluding Australia) with above average momentum scores, as measured by risk-adjusted returns.

The Index ranks stocks within the eligible universe based on 6 and 12-month risk adjusted returns to target more sustainable positive momentum over sharp, highly volatile run-ups. 

Stocks displaying consistently strong positive momentum over recent history are rewarded with higher weights in the index.

The post 3 of the best ASX ETFs to own right now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.