On Monday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) started the week with a very small gain. The benchmark index rose a fraction to 8,731.9 points.

Will the market be able to build on this on Tuesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to rise

The Australian share market looks set for a good session on Tuesday following a strong night in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 28 points or 0.3% higher. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones rose 0.7%, the S&P 500 jumped 1.5%, and the Nasdaq stormed 2.25% higher.

Dividend payday

A group of ASX 200 shares will be rewarding their shareholders with their latest dividend payments on Tuesday. This includes Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG), Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN), and Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL). The latter is paying shareholders a fully franked 37 cents per share dividend later today.

Oil prices tumble

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a tough session on Tuesday after oil prices tumbled overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 4.9% to US$95.37 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 3.6% to US$100.10 a barrel. This was driven by optimism that the US and Iran could start peace talks.

Gold price falls

ASX 200 gold shares Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) and Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM) could have a soft session after the gold price dropped overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 1% to US$4,381.3 an ounce. The precious metal has come under pressure due to increasing US rate hike bets.

Buy Telix shares

Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX) shares could be in the buy zone according to Bell Potter. In response to its merger news, the broker has retained its buy rating and $19.00 price target on Telix’s shares. It said: “We are yet to include the earnings impact from the transaction in our forecast, nevertheless, it represents a once in a lifetime opportunity to acquire a dominant share in the supply of Lu-177 that is very difficult to replicate. While earnings may take a year or two to realise, the underlying value is obvious. Maintain Buy rating.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Should I buy Coles shares for passive income?
• Telix shares just crashed 12% on merger news. Time to buy the dip?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• ASX 200 claws back its early losses. What’s moving the market?
• Sigma Healthcare vs Sonic Healthcare: Which ASX healthcare share wins?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) share price has been one of the ASX’s best performers since early June 2026, rising about 90%. We’re going to look at the potential returns CSL could deliver in the year ahead.

The ASX biotech share had a difficult FY26, but FY27 looks much more positive.

In FY26, total revenue declined 1% to $15.8 billion, underlying net profit (NPATA) declined 2% to $3.1 billion, operating cash flow fell 1% to $3.5 billion and its net profit worsened by 184% to a net loss of $2.6 billion.

To go from a business regularly generating double-digit growth to a business seeing its underlying financials fall wasn’t appealing to investors.

However, FY27 looks much more positive for the business. We’ll look at the guidance for the upcoming year ahead and then look at what analysts are projecting for the CSL share price.

FY27 guidance

In the 2027 financial year, CSL expects revenue to be in line with the prior year and underlying NPAT growth of approximately 5%.

The CSL Behring division expects mid-single-digit revenue growth, with Ig growth in the mid-to-high single-digits. CSL said Behring will continue to focus on core plasma collection efficiency and manufacturing productivity.

CSL Seqirus expects low single-digit revenue growth. Immunisation rates in the United States are expected to decline, but at a slower rate than recent seasons.

The company also said that Vifor expects revenue to decline by approximately 25%, driven by “generic competition in iron products, the conclusions of the TDAPA period for VELPHORO, and the revocation of the marketing authorisation for TAVNEOS.

The company’s interim CEO and managing director Gordon Naylor gave some positive commentary with the outlook:

CSL is positioned for a return to sustainable growth, supported by solid plasma market fundamentals, a simplified business and targeted investment in our commercial capabilities and development programs.

The company’s ongoing strong cash flow and balance sheet have enabled us to announce a further A$1.1 billion share buy-back program and maintain our dividend.

What could happen with the CSL share price?

The CSL share price has risen enormously, and analysts seem to think it has peaked for now.

According to CMC Invest, the business has received 11 ratings in the last three months. The average price target is $175.02, implying it could trade at the same price a year from now.

The most optimistic price target is $213, implying a 12% rise. However, the most negative price target is $133, suggesting a possible 24% decline.

If it is flat over the next 12 months, there could be better ASX shares to buy today. 

The post How much could the CSL share price rise in the next year? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• CSL shares are back near $180. Here’s the level I’m watching
• Why brokers think CSL shares could be on track for $200
• Buy, hold, sell: Coles, NAB, CSL shares
• ASX 200 healthcare shares lead a weaker market amid 82% chance of a rate hike
• How much passive income could I make by investing $500 a month in ASX shares?

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP Group vs Rio Tinto shares: Which is better for passive income investors today?

If you’re searching for steady dividends and long-term portfolio strength, two giants often come into focus: BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO). Both are titans in global mining with reputations for pumping out franked cashflows to shareholders, and their scale makes them regulars in most Aussie blue-chip portfolios. But when it comes to passive income—reliable, chunky dividend streams—how do the shares stack up for investors today? Here’s my breakdown comparing BHP Group vs Rio Tinto shares, with a focus on the numbers that matter most for income seekers.

The case for BHP Group

BHP Group is a world-spanning mining powerhouse, headquartered in Melbourne and known for steelmaking ingredients like iron ore and copper, as well as coal, nickel, and potash. Following a restructure in 2022, it now sports a primary ASX listing, keeping things simpler for local shareholders. BHP’s earnings and share price can swing with commodity cycles, but it’s famed for its size, diversification, and disciplined capital returns.

A few key takeaways:

• Market cap: At $310.39 billion, BHP dwarfs most local peers and brings both scale and global reach.
• Dividend yield: Currently 3.96%, and crucially, with full 100% franking—the kind of income profile many Australian retirees crave.
• Dividend consistency: BHP’s dividend history shows regular twice-yearly payments, typically fully franked, with occasional special dividends sprinkled in.
• YTD return: The shares have surged 39.5% year to date, indicating strong momentum, likely helped by resource price moves.

According to its company profile, BHP boasts a formidable global footprint with operations reaching from Australia to South America and across various high-demand commodities.

The case for Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto is another Australian mining icon, originally founded in 1873 and now one of the largest metals and mining corporations worldwide. Its core businesses are iron ore, aluminium and lithium, and copper—products right at the heart of global electrification and decarbonisation trends. Like BHP, it benefits from scale and commodity diversification.

Here’s what stands out:

• Market cap: Rio Tinto’s value sits at $62.28 billion—substantial, though well below BHP’s heft.
• Dividend yield: Also at 3.96%, and like BHP, fully franked, which is a major plus for Aussie income investors.
• Dividend per share: $6.63, higher than BHP’s $2.42 per share (though both have different share prices and outstanding shares, so yield is what counts).
• Earnings per share: At $7.382, Rio has a higher reported EPS than BHP, reflecting mining cycles and possibly a leaner capital base.
• YTD return: Shares are up 18.6% in the year to date—a strong but more modest lift compared to BHP.

Rio Tinto’s latest business description highlights a focus on growth areas like lithium and copper, putting it front and centre for big trends like electric vehicles, even as iron ore remains its engine room.

Valuation comparison

For passive income investors, yield and valuation are top-of-mind. Let’s look at direct fundamentals:

Metric	BHP Group	Rio Tinto
Market Cap	$310.39 billion	$62.28 billion
P/E Ratio	22.40	16.08
Dividend Yield	3.96% (100% franked)	3.96% (100% franked)
Earnings per Share	1.932	7.382
Dividend per Share	2.42	6.63
Year To Date Return	39.5%	18.6%

A few nuances: Rio Tinto’s lower P/E ratio could suggest it’s trading on more cautious earnings expectations, relative to BHP. Both offer identical dividend yields (and franking), but Rio’s higher dividend per share simply reflects its higher share price, not greater yield.

Note: BHP’s reported P/E ratio and EPS combination suggests its P/E is calculated using a different earnings measure than the simple EPS figure, which is why they may appear inconsistent. The same logic applies to Rio Tinto.

Recent share price performance

Comparing the past month (21 August to 18 September 2026):

• BHP Group: Rose from $65.16 (21 Aug) to $61.05 (18 Sep), a decline of about 6.3% over the period, despite a strong YTD gain of 39.5%.
• Rio Tinto: Rose from $175.38 (21 Aug) to $167.49 (18 Sep), also down approximately 4.5% over the same period, with a YTD gain of 18.6%.
• Both showed volatility typical of diversified miners, driven by swings in commodity prices and broader market mood.
• These prices are as at September 18, 2026, and may have shifted since.

Which is the better buy?

With income in mind, here’s how I see it: Both BHP Group and Rio Tinto currently offer a healthy 3.96% fully franked dividend yield, which will put a smile on most passive income seekers’ faces. BHP is by far the bigger beast, with a greater global reach and a much fatter market cap, but size alone doesn’t make BHP the better buy for dividend collectors.

The most meaningful real difference right now is in valuation and share price performance. BHP’s shares have smashed out a bigger YTD gain (39.5% versus Rio’s 18.6%), suggesting a stronger run of late and perhaps higher investor confidence. But that means BHP now trades on a higher P/E (22.4 vs. 16.08), so Rio looks the more “value-priced” choice for those worried about buying in at a peak.

Each company has a well-established record of fully franked dividends and a diversified mining footprint. In this context, with yields identical and both offering franking, I’d lean toward Rio Tinto as my passive income pick today: it’s trading on a lower price-to-earnings multiple, offers the same headline yield, and has a strong track record. If BHP’s valuation pulled back or its dividend yield moved ahead, I’d reconsider—but for now, Rio’s combination of income and sensible valuation wins the day for me.

The post BHP Group vs Rio Tinto shares: Which pays better dividends? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• If I invest $15,000 in BHP shares, how much passive income will I receive in 2027?
• Rio Tinto vs APA Group: Which is better for passive income?

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial draft. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.