You have to go all the way back to June 2019 to find the last time Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) shares were trading below the $60 mark.

Xero finished Monday at $60.08 after dropping another 4.30%, having touched an intraday low of $59.65.

The last time Xero closed below $60 was 28 June 2019, when the shares finished at $59.94.

That’s pretty remarkable when you consider Xero was trading as high as $196.52 in late June last year.

The selling has been relentless recently as well.

Xero shares are now down almost 30% over the past month and around 47% since the start of 2026.

September has been brutal

What makes the latest slide a little harder to pin down is that Xero hasn’t released any bad news to the market.

There has been no profit warning, earnings downgrade or major operational update behind the recent selling.

Instead, a few things seem to be working against the stock at the same time.

ASX tech shares had another tough session on Monday as expectations for another RBA rate rise increased.

Australian 10-year bond yields were also sitting around 5.3%, which hasn’t helped high-growth tech stocks either.

Xero has also been caught in the software sell-off as investors question what AI could mean for the sector over the next few years.

And then there’s Melio.

The acquisition pushed Xero further into US payments, while bringing extra costs and lower-margin revenue into the business as well.

This isn’t the same Xero as 2019

That’s what makes the current share price hard to ignore.

Xero may be back around its 2019 share price, but the business is now much larger.

In FY26, operating revenue rose 31% to NZ$2.75 billion, while adjusted EBITDA increased 18% to NZ$757.4 million.

Free cash flow reached NZ$554 million, while Xero added another 506,000 customers to finish the year with 4.92 million.

The numbers weren’t all heading in the right direction though.

Net profit fell 27% to NZ$167.4 million, while gross margin dropped from 89% to 83.9% as Melio started contributing to the group.

Xero has also flagged up to NZ$55 million of additional US brand spending during FY27.

Analysts value Xero much higher

The other thing worth watching is just how far Xero has fallen below some analyst valuations.

Morningstar has a fair value estimate of $97.87, although it also gives the stock a high uncertainty rating.

TipRanks shows Citi with a $113.60 price target, while RBC Capital has a more conservative target of $85.

Even the lowest of those figures is still well above yesterday’s close of $60.08.

That doesn’t mean Xero shares can’t keep falling, particularly after the way they’ve traded through September.

But it shows just how quickly the market has changed its view of the stock.

The post Xero shares crash to a 7-year low after a brutal sell-off appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX) shares got smashed on Monday, plunging 12% to $15.76 after a blockbuster merger announcement. Zoom out, though, and the nuclear healthcare stock is still up 40% year to date — though that gain has shrunk to just 12% over 12 months.

So did the market overreact, or is this the start of something worse?

The deal

Here’s the short version: Telix just agreed to buy Germany’s ITM, one of the biggest players in radioisotope production, for US$1.65 billion.

And Telix isn’t paying with cash. It’s paying with shares – 105.8 million of them, worth about US$1.25 billion. On top of that, it’s taking on US$302 million of ITM’s debt, plus another US$96 million in transaction costs and management payouts.

That’s not all. Telix could end up paying a further US$700 million down the track. That will depend on how ITM’s cancer drug ITM-11 performs — up to US$250 million if it clears FDA approval across three indications, and up to US$450 million if sales blow past US$150 million by 2030.

Once the dust settles, current Telix shareholders will own about 76% of the combined company. ITM’s shareholders will get the other 24%.

Why the market panicked

In plain terms: Telix just diluted itself, big time. Issuing 105.8 million new Telix shares is a serious jump in shares on issue, and that’s really what was crushing the price on Monday. Not doubts about the strategy itself.

The deal still needs shareholder approval at a meeting expected in November, which adds a layer of ‘wait and see’. And the combined company’s 2026 revenue guidance of just over US$1.3 billion isn’t exactly blowing anyone away relative to the price tag. So investors are left weighing genuine strategic upside against real, near-term dilution.

CEO Christian Behrenbruch made the case for why it’s worth it:

ITM is the leader in radioisotope production, with deep scientific expertise and a track record of value-adding innovation. By combining our complementary strengths, we will create a company with commercial scale, world-leading supply and the most exciting theranostic drug portfolio in the sector.

What do brokers think?

Brokers, for the most part, aren’t panicking. Five of the latest broker ratings are a buy — Canaccord Genuity, Citi, JPMorgan, UBS and Jarden, while RBC Capital is the lone hold.

Where they disagree is on price. Targets range from $19 all the way to $31, suggesting upsides between 21% and 97%. Canaccord just lifted its target to $30.25, Citi sits at $31 and JPMorgan is at $25.58. Jarden nudged up to $21, while UBS trimmed its target to $22 but kept its buy rating intact.

Foolish takeaway

Every one of those price targets sits well above where Telix shares trade today. Brokers clearly like the story, but they just can’t agree on the price tag.

The real test isn’t whether the ITM deal makes strategic sense. It probably does. It’s whether Telix can actually integrate a US$1.65 billion acquisition, hit ITM-11’s regulatory milestones, and prove the dilution was worth it.

Until then, this drop looks more like nerves than a verdict.

The post Telix shares just crashed 12% on merger news. Time to buy the dip? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended JPMorgan Chase and Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have handed investors some fantastic gains over the past 12 months.

On Monday, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant were trading for $60.71 apiece. That sees the share price up an impressive 51.7% since this time last year, smashing the ASX 200’s 0.9% 12-month loss.

And that’s not including the two fully-franked interim dividends BHP paid out over this time.

Amid rising revenue and profits, BHP’s FY 2026 dividend payouts, totalling $2.419 a share, were up 41.6% from FY 2025. If you owned BHP shares at market close on 2 September, you can expect to see the final FY 2026 passive income payout hit your bank account this Wednesday, 23 September.

At Monday’s prices, BHP shares trade on a fully-franked trailing dividend yield of 4%.

So, after this stellar 12-month run, is the Aussie mining giant still a good buy today?

BHP shares: Buy, hold, or sell?

Catapult Wealth’s Dylan Evans recently analysed the outlook for the booming miner, which now counts as the biggest stock by market cap on the ASX (courtesy of The Bull).

“The global miner’s full year results were impressive, with the company increasing revenue and profit,” he said.

Evans noted:

Growth was driven by the copper division, which is now the primary revenue generator for BHP. As a result, future earnings will be influenced by the copper price, but the price should be underpinned by several long-term themes, including electrification and growing digital infrastructure.

But, following on the strong one-year run, Evans issued a hold recommendation on BHP shares for now.

“BHP is a core holding. However, the share price has risen substantially in the past 12 months to the point where it can appear expensive,” he concluded.

What’s the latest copper news from the ASX 200 mining stock?

As Evans mentioned above, FY 2026 marked the first year in which copper surpassed iron ore in driving BHP’s earnings and supporting BHP’s share price growth.

Commenting on its copper operations, the ASX 200 mining stock noted:

Spot copper prices on average were 26% higher in FY26, with H2 FY26 experiencing increases of nearly 40% as copper moved to >US$13,000/t (US$5.90/lb). The copper price continues to be supported by strong fundamentals on the demand and supply side, driven by a compelling narrative for copper-intensive sectors, particularly electrification and data centres and the risk of future supply deficits.

BHP reported a 48% year-on-year increase in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) from its copper division to US$18.2 billion. That saw copper production contribute 54% of BHP’s total underlying EBITDA in FY 2026.

The post Up 52% and paying dividends: Are BHP shares a buy, hold, or sell today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.