Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares haven’t exactly impressed investors over the past year.

At the time of writing, the airline’s shares are down around 8% over the past 12 months, lagging the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has gained about 2%.

But one leading broker believes the next chapter could be much brighter.

Market underestimates Project Sunrise

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) has retained its overweight rating on Qantas shares and lifted its price target to $12.50, up from $10.60. That implies more than 20% upside from current levels.

The broker believes investors are underestimating the long-term value of Project Sunrise. This is Qantas’ ambitious plan to launch non-stop flights from Australia’s east coast to London and New York from October 2027 using specially designed Airbus A350-1000ULR aircraft.

Management has previously guided to around $400 million in additional annual earnings once the new routes mature. However, Morgan Stanley believes that’s only part of the story.

More than just higher earnings

The broker argues Project Sunrise could fundamentally improve the quality of Qantas’ business. The new aircraft will have around 41% premium seats, compared with roughly 10% to 20% across much of Qantas’ existing international fleet.

That greater exposure to premium travellers could lift margins and make international earnings more resilient through economic cycles.

Combined with Qantas’ ongoing fleet renewal and broader network strategy, Morgan Stanley believes Qantas shares deserve a higher valuation multiple than the market currently assigns.

Earnings forecasts are climbing

While the broker made only minor changes to its FY26 forecasts, it increased FY27 earnings per Qantas share estimates by 5%, helped largely by lower expected fuel costs.

Further out, Morgan Stanley lifted its international EBIT forecasts by between 3% and 31% across FY28 to FY30 and now expects international EBIT to reach $1.23 billion by FY31.

That’s more than double the $596 million generated in FY25 and around 26% above broader market expectations.

Why the broker is confident

Morgan Stanley points to Qantas’ existing Perth-to-London service as evidence that passengers are willing to pay a premium for non-stop long-haul travel.

Since launching in 2018, the route has consistently achieved a revenue premium of more than 20% over one-stop alternatives while maintaining load factors close to 90%.

With Sydney’s premium travel market roughly three times larger than Perth’s, the broker believes Project Sunrise doesn’t need a dramatic shift in customer behaviour to succeed.

What could go wrong?

Qantas shares still carry risks, obviously.

Premium demand may fall short of expectations, rival airlines could introduce competing ultra-long-haul services sooner than anticipated, or aircraft delivery delays could push back the earnings benefits.

Fleet investment is also expected to weigh on free cash flow over the next few years before tapering off.

Foolish takeaway

Morgan Stanley believes Project Sunrise could transform Qantas into a stronger, more profitable airline rather than simply adding another route.

Investors in Qantas shares won’t have long to wait for another update, with the airline set to release its FY26 results on 27 August, when management is expected to provide further details on its fleet renewal and flagship expansion plans.

The post Why this top expert thinks Qantas shares can fly 20% higher appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares are sitting at a price that has me looking again.

The bank offers a solid dividend, a reasonable valuation, and an advantage that sets it apart from the rest of the big four.

Here is why I would buy NAB shares today.

The part of NAB I like most

NAB has a leading position in Australian business banking. That gives it access to customer relationships that can stretch well beyond a single loan.

A business may need transaction accounts, deposits, equipment finance, working capital, payment services, foreign exchange, and advice as it grows. The more of those needs NAB can handle, the deeper the relationship can become.

That is a more interesting growth opportunity to me than competing aggressively for every available mortgage.

Importantly, this focus has been successful. For the first half, NAB reported that its Business and Private Banking division grew lending balances by 4.6% during the six months to March 2026, while deposits increased by 5.9%.

The bank has also been investing in digital tools that allow customers to complete simple tasks more quickly, leaving bankers with more time to work through complex financial needs.

More than 80% of lending applications in the division were submitted digitally during the first half. I like that combination of better technology and relationship banking because it can improve efficiency without removing the personal support many business customers value.

Does the NAB share price valuation stack up?

NAB shares are trading around $39.30.

Based on CommSec consensus estimates, the bank is expected to generate earnings per share of $2.43 in FY26 and $2.53 in FY27.

That places the shares on price-to-earnings ratios of approximately 16.2 times FY26 earnings and 15.5 times FY27 earnings.

I would call that reasonable rather than exceptionally cheap.

The dividend strengthens the case. Forecast dividends per share of $1.70 in FY26 and $1.72 in FY27 imply dividend yields of around 4.3% and 4.4%, respectively.

For investors eligible to benefit from franking credits, the after-tax income could be even more attractive.

A simpler bank could be a better bank

NAB is also trying to reduce the complexity that has accumulated across its operations.

It had 27% fewer products in the first half than it did in FY22 and had decommissioned approximately 500 legacy applications since October 2023.

Removing old systems and overlapping products can help the bank serve customers faster, lower operating costs, and introduce new technology more easily.

The benefits may arrive gradually, but banking rewards small improvements made across millions of customer interactions. A smoother account opening process or faster lending decision can make a meaningful difference when repeated at scale.

Foolish takeaway

The major banks are often grouped together, but I think NAB’s business banking position gives it a distinct route to growth.

Its customers can require a wide range of financial services as their businesses develop, creating opportunities for deeper relationships and greater revenue over time.

At $39.30, investors are receiving a forecast yield above 4% while paying a valuation that I find reasonable for the quality of the franchise.

NAB still needs to manage credit quality, competition, and its technology overhaul carefully. Even so, I think the balance between income, valuation, and long-term opportunity makes the shares a buy.

The post Why NAB’s business banking edge makes it a buy at $39.30 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Meeka Metals Ltd (ASX: MEK) share price is in focus after the company reported June 2026 quarter gold production of 6,424 ounces, a slight improvement on the previous quarter but below expectations. Mine operating cash flow came in at $6.4 million, while cash at quarter end stood at $38 million.

What did Meeka Metals report?

• Gold production for the June quarter was 6,424oz (March quarter: 6,083oz)
• Gold sales for the quarter totalled 6,242oz at an average price of $6,213/oz
• Full-year FY26 gold production reached 56,400oz
• Mine operating cash flow was $6.4m; net mine cash outflow of $11.1m after $17.5m in growth capital
• Closing ore stockpiles increased to 25,414oz (806kt @ 1.0g/t Au)
• Cash balance decreased to $38m as at 30 June 2026

What else do investors need to know?

The quarter saw the first contribution of higher-grade underground stope ore to the mill blend, with underground ore expected to make up 40% of the blend in the September quarter. Open pit mining continued to be affected by lower-than-expected contractor productivity, delaying access to high-grade open pit ore.

As a result, Meeka Metals plans to end open pit mining in July 2026, preserving a significant in-ground open pit resource. The company invested $17.5 million in non-recurring growth projects this quarter, including underground development at Andy Well, equipment, and expansion of site infrastructure.

What did Meeka Metals management say?

Managing Director Tim Davidson said:

It was another frustrating quarter from a production perspective and while the result fell short of expectations, the drivers are well understood and the corrective path is clear. Production is expected to improve in the September 2026 quarter as the operation transitions away from its reliance on open pit ore. Higher-grade underground production is ramping up and will make up an increasing proportion of the mill blend, lifting both head grade and recovered ounces. Cash is expected to grow through the September 2026 quarter on the back of this stronger gold production, as the higher-margin underground material flows through to the bottom line. Development of our second underground mine at Turnberry, commencing in September 2026 will further increase the availability of higher-grade underground ore for the processing plant.

What’s next for Meeka Metals?

Meeka expects gold production and operating cash flow to increase in the September quarter, driven by a greater proportion of higher-margin underground ore in the mill feed. The company is set to begin portal development on the second underground mine at Turnberry in September 2026, further boosting access to higher-grade ore.

With the conclusion of open pit mining, management aims to reduce costs and focus on underground operations, positioning Meeka to benefit from improved grades and production stability.

Meeka Metals share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Meeka Metals shares have declined 34%, trailing the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO), which is flat over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Meeka Metals June 2026 quarter: Production edges up, strong outlook with underground focus appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.