The Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) share price has been an exceptionally strong performer over the last couple of months.

It was around this time in March that the airline operator’s shares sank to a multi-year low of $2.03.

Since then Qantas’ shares have rebounded remarkably strongly and are fetching $3.58 on Thursday afternoon. This means they are up more than 76% since hitting that March low.

Is it too late to invest?

Whether Qantas’ shares are undervalued, fair value, or overvalued will depend largely on how quickly travel markets recover from the pandemic.

Based on current economic reopening expectations, I would say that the company’s shares are closing in on fair value now.

However, if a vaccine is successfully developed and distributed in the coming month, then travel markets could rebound far quicker than expected. In this scenario, I would say Qantas’ shares are very good value.

For this reason, I’ll be watching the progress of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate, mRNA-1273 very closely. The early results have been promising, but there’s still a bit of work and further testing to go before we’ll know whether it is the key to unlocking global borders.

Morgan Stanley retains its overweight rating.

One broker that is bullish on Qantas is Morgan Stanley. This morning it retained its overweight rating on the company’s shares with a slightly reduced price target of $5.20.

This price target implies potential upside of almost 45% over the next 12 months.

According to the note, the broker believes that Qantas’ business will normalise in FY 2023. However, it suspects it could return to profitability a year earlier.

Though, it has warned that there is a lot of uncertainty, not least with rival Virgin Australia Holdings Limited (ASX: VAH) in voluntary administration. It feel that what happens with Virgin Australia could have a major impact in the coming years.

More reading

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post The Qantas share price is up 76% from its low: Is it too late to invest? appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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Canaccord Genuity initiated a buy rating for ASX 200 rare earths miner, Lynas Corporation Ltd (ASX: LYC). It has a target price of $3.80 and its current share price at the time of writing is $2.01. 

The Aussie miner is a fully integrated producer of refined rare earths. These are a group of 17 chemical elements used in computers, batteries, cellular devices, magnets and defence/military applications. Lynas is the world’s largest producer of rare earth elements outside of China. It is also the second largest in the world. Its main operating assets are located in Western Australia and it also has a processing plant in Malaysia. 

Magnets – a focal point in rare earths market 

Among the key products produced by Lynas are neodymium/praseodymium oxides (NdPr), a critical component in rare earth permanent magnets. These magnets are used in a wide variety of consumer electronics and industrial/high technology applications. This includes in electric vehicles and wind turbine generators. Canaccord forecasts that these emerging renewable technologies will drive significant demand growth for rare earth permanent magnets over the medium to long term. 

Supply gap could emerge by 2023 

Canaccord anticipates flat demand growth for NdPr in the near term but a post-COVID-19 world could see a recovery in many rare earth consuming industries. This could see a shortage of rare earths by 2023, placing upward pressure on NdPr prices. 

China produces approximately 80% of the world’s rare earths. However, there has been a recent clampdown on illegal production as well as a move away from producers with poor environmental credentials. Because China has a near ‘monopoly’ on rare earth production, global consumers are increasingly looking to diversify critical mineral supply chains.

Amidst the heat of the US–China trade war, China threatened to stop delivering supplies of rare earth metals – a key material for US defence and healthcare. The US has since looked at Australia as a key supply partner and a means to move away from its dependency on China. This has resulted in Lynas, in partnership with American company, Blue Line Corporation, being awarded a Phase I contract by the US Department of Defence (DoD). The venture involves planning and design for a US heavy rare earth separation facility intended to fill a key gap in the country’s supply chain. Whilst Phase I encompasses design only, its successful completion may lead to further contracts for production and operation for this ASX 200 miner. 

Furthermore, in the past, China was able to flood the market and cripple global rare earth prices. This has forced Lynas to develop itself into a consistent, low-cost producer. Today, its low cost capabilities and considerable intellectual property see it well positioned it to expand its production capacity by 2025. This includes relocating its mid-stream processing to Western Australia and upgrading its product separation facility in Malaysia. 

Foolish takeaway

Lynas may be vulnerable to the volatile movements of the general market. However, it plays a crucial role in the global supply of rare earth minerals. While it may be a rocky road for the share price in the near term, I believe it is good value for ASX 200 share investors with a long-term mindset. 

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Motley Fool contributor Lina Lim has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post Broker upgrades this ASX 200 mining share to a ‘buy’ appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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The WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) share price has doubled since March.

That’s right, in just two short months, WiseTech shares have returned 100% to any investors who picked up shares on 19 March.  That was the day that WiseTech hit $9.97 a share – its lowest share price since April 2018. Today, WiseTech shares are going for $20.91. Eat your heart out!

Of course, it hasn’t always been ‘onwards and upwards’ for this preeminent WAAAX share. WiseTech actually had a pretty horrid year in 2019. After hitting an all-time high of $38.80 in September, WiseTech took blows to seemingly never-ending problems, which included a scathing short-seller attack. As of the March lows, WiseTech shares were down almost 70% from its highs.

Why have WiseTech shares rallied?

Initially, WiseTech shares were caught up in the global market sell-off we saw in March that was sparked by the coronavirus pandemic. Since the company provides logistics solutions to global freight companies, it was likely that the market was pricing in a long deep-freeze for global trade and the logistics space, which explains why WiseTech shares plumbed to such low depths in March.

But since it has become apparent that the wheels of global trade and logistics won’t be seizing up, bullish sentiment has returned to this former high-flyer. Several ASX fund managers have also publicly taken bets on WiseTech in recent weeks, which always adds to bargain buying.

Are WiseTech shares in the buy zone today?

WiseTech shares are certainly looking a lot more attractive than they were at the high points of last year. Even so, at the time of writing, this company was still trading on an earnings multiple of 72.66 on current prices (which is a metric that doesn’t even include the impacts of the coronavirus shutdowns yet). WiseTech has employed an aggressive acquisitions strategy in recent years, which can distort this multiple somewhat, but it’s still not at a level I would call cheap.

WiseTech is a great company with an interesting growth trajectory. If you truly understand this company and remain bullish in its long-term future, then perhaps there is value to be found in the WiseTech share price today.

But from my perspective, it’s not at a level that I find enticing. There are a lot of uncertainties still floating around the logistics space, especially beyond Australia’s borders. Thus, I don’t think this company deserves such a high valuation in the current market.

More reading

• Fund managers have been buying these ASX shares
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• Why Appen could be the best WAAAX share to own in a post-coronavirus economy

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of WiseTech Global. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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