BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are edging lower today. 

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant closed on Friday trading for $60.50. In morning trade on Monday, shares are swapping hands for $60.45, down 0.1%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is just about flat at this same time. 

Longer term, BHP shares have strongly outperformed the 3% one-year gains posted by the benchmark index, with shares in the ASX 200 mining stock up 56.5% in 12 months.    

And that’s not including the two fully-franked dividends, totalling $1.958 a share, that BHP paid to eligible stockholders over this period

Adding appeal to passive income investors, BHP shares trade on a 3.3% fully-franked trailing dividend yield.

And Catapult Wealth’s Blake Halligan believes the Aussie mining giant is well placed to deliver more outperformance in the months ahead (courtesy of The Bull). 

Here’s why. 

Should I buy BHP shares today?

Citing the first reason he’s bullish on the ASX 200 mining stock, Halligan said, “The global miner holds dominant positions in iron ore and copper and is leveraged to increasing demand during the energy transition.”

Addressing BHP’s recent, costly operational issues at its Canadian potash project, Halligan said:

A review of the Jansen stage 2 potash project in Canada resulted in a cost blowout of about U$S2 billion to US$6.9 billion. Despite the Jansen impairment and the risk of industrial action at iron ore operations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, near term earnings momentum remains strong.

Despite that cost blowout, Halligan noted, “Elevated copper prices and strong iron ore prices supported performance in full year 2026.”

Summarising the second and third reasons you might want to buy BHP shares today, Halligan concluded, “The balance sheet remains robust with low net debt, while a recent dividend yield above 3% adds income appeal. BHP offers cyclical upside and long-term growth exposure to copper.” 

A slightly less bullish outlook on the ASX 200 mining stock

Sanlam Private Wealth’s Remo Greco also analysed the outlook for the mining giant this week.

And while he has a longer-term bullish outlook on the company, he issued a hold recommendation on BHP shares for now. 

According to Greco:

Several disappointing events have led us to downgrade BHP to a hold. Cost over-runs at its Jansen stage 2 potash project in Canada lifts the investment cost by about US$2 billion to US$6.9 billion.

Possible industrial action, although averted in June, may re-ignite at the company’s iron ore operations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. Any industrial action may impact stock performance.

Longer term, we like BHP’s exposure to copper – the key metal of the future.

The post Up 57%! 3 compelling reasons to still buy BHP shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) shares have slipped further into the red in early Monday morning trade.

At the time of writing, the shares have fallen by around 1% to a fresh 52-week low of $10.30 each. 

Today’s decline means the shares are now down around 9% year to date and over 11% below the trading levels seen this time last year. 

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up just over 1% for the year to date and 3% higher over the past 12 months.  

Why is everyone selling their Origin Energy shares?

Origin Energy was one of the strongest performers on the index in early 2026, but after the energy provider posted its March quarter update in late April, investors rushed to sell off their shares.

The update, which covers Origin Energy’s Integrated Gas, Energy markets, and Octopus Energy segments, revealed declines across the board. The company also downgraded its FY26 EBITDA guidance. 

The sell-off continued through May and June. Now, at the time of writing, Origin Energy shares have lost around 19% of their value since the announcement. 

The share price has fallen around 7% in the first week of July alone.

There haven’t been any price-sensitive updates out of the company recently to explain the sell-off. It looks like the ASX energy stock has come off the boil following lower realised LNG prices and a recent market-wide energy pricing review. 

The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) and various state watchdogs have mandated that retailers pass on regulatory price cuts. But the adjustments have caused a significant restructure of how power bills are calculated. 

This regulatory scrutiny of electricity pricing has raised concerns that retail margins could come under pressure. And investors are spooked.  

The question now is whether it’s still a good idea to add Origin Energy shares to your portfolio, or whether you should sell up ahead of the next slump. 

Are the energy shares a buy, sell, or hold now?

It looks like the experts are also divided about the outlook for Origin Energy shares over the next 12 months.

Market Index data shows brokers are split between a hold and a buy rating. But after the latest price crash, the $12.73 average target price still implies a potential 23% upside, at the time of writing.

TradingView data shows something very similar. Out of 12 analysts, five have a hold rating, and five have a buy or strong buy rating. Another two analysts rate the energy stock as a sell or strong sell.

But they do all agree an upside is ahead. 

The average $12.15 target price implies a potential 18% upside at the time of writing. And some are tipping the shares to storm up to 30% higher to $13.40 a piece, over the next 12 months.

With lower EBITDA expected for FY26, continued regulatory headwinds, and the potential for oil and LNG headwinds to continue trickling through into FY27, I think we could see even more downside ahead for Origin Energy shares this year.  

The post Origin Energy sell-off continues, shares hit fresh 52-week low: Buy, sell or hold? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) shares are charging higher today following an unsolicited binding takeover proposal from fellow S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD).

Vault Minerals shares closed on Friday trading for $4.56. In early morning trade on Monday, shares are changing hands for $5.05 apiece, up 10.8%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.2% at this same time, while Genesis Minerals shares are down 6.7% on the news, trading for $5.87 each.

Here’s what’s happening.

Vault Minerals shares leap on superior $5.6 billion takeover offer

As you may recall, it was only back on 5 May that Vault Minerals announced its intentions to merge with Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL).

(If you’re wondering, Regis Resources shares are up 0.5% today, trading for $6.66 each.)

Under what was labelled a “merger-of-equals”, Regis was planning to acquire 100% of Vault Minerals shares. Vault stockholders would then receive 0.6947 new Regis Resources shares in exchange for their Vault shares.

Commenting on the proposed Regis Resources merger on the day, Vault Minerals CEO Luke Tonkin said:

Vault’s portfolio, anchored by the King of the Hills operation currently undergoing a significant mill expansion, brings long-life, high-quality assets and a strong financial position to the merger.

By combining these strengths with Regis’ proven operational and exploration capability, the merged company is better positioned to deliver sustained production, enhanced reserve replacement and long-term value creation across gold price cycles.

But Genesis Minerals may have thrown a spanner into those plans with a superior takeover offer that was announced this morning.

Under the proposed scheme of arrangement, Vault Minerals shareholders will receive 0.7629 new ordinary shares in Genesis plus 47.5 cents in cash for every Vault share they hold.

The improved takeover offer values Vault at $5.274 per share, or $5.6 billion, based on the Genesis share price at market close on Friday.

That’s 15.7% above Friday’s closing price for Vault Minerals shares. And it represents a 14.5% improvement on the implied offer price from Regis Resources’ takeover offer.

Commenting on the improved takeover offer, the Vault board noted:

In accordance with the Regis SID, Vault has notified Regis that it considers the Genesis Proposal to be a Vault Superior Proposal for the purposes of the Regis SID and that the five business day matching right period has commenced.

During this matching right period, Regis has the right (but not the obligation) to announce or provide a matching or superior proposal to the Genesis Proposal.

Stay tuned!

The post Move over Regis Resources! Vault Minerals shares leaping 11% as Genesis Minerals’ lobs $5.6 billion takeover bid appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.