Australian house prices have much further to fall, AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver argues, as a “perfect storm” of interest rate rises, tax hikes for investors and poor confidence hit the market.

House price falls just getting started

In a recently released report, Dr Oliver said that Cotality figures show national home prices fell 1.1% in September, bringing falls to date to slightly more than 5%.

But he warned much worse was to come.

Dr Oliver said:

Further falls are likely as home prices are being hit by a perfect storm of rate hikes, tax hikes on investors, poor confidence and poor affordability depressing demand with a high risk of distressed sales flowing from higher mortgage rates and unemployment. We now expect national average property prices to have a top to bottom fall in prices of 10-15%, of which they have done 5.2% so far. Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide are likely to see the deepest falls, whereas Melbourne is likely to have a shallower decline.

Dr Oliver predicted the market would bottom out around the June quarter next year, before a modest recovery in 2027-28 as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) moved to start cutting official interest rates.

He added that units and lower end property would likely not drop as steeply given they didn’t appreciate as much, and because they benefit from the expanded first home buyers 5% low deposit scheme.

Dr Oliver said the negative factors affecting the market were currently outweighing the upward pressure from a shortage of housing.

He added:

Were it not for three key supports the property market would be a lot weaker. These are: the accumulated housing shortfall of an estimated 200,000 to 300,000 dwellings; vendors not being in a rush to sell just yet aided by still low unemployment; and the expanded first home buyer 5% deposit scheme which is helping to support lower priced entry level houses and units. However, despite these supports, the Australian housing market is still likely to weaken significantly further as higher mortgage rates, the removal of most property tax concessions, record poor affordability and poor confidence continue to impact at a time of a rising risk of distressed selling.

Rate rises likely off the cards

Dr Oliver said he believed the RBA would not raise interest rates again, but, “we don’t see it cutting rates until the second half next year”.

He added that given there is still uncertainty about the full impact of the property tax changes on demand, “the risk remains on the downside”.

The post How much further will house prices fall, according to AMP’s chief economist? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

September was a disappointing month for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which fell almost 3.2% to end at 8,789.3 points.

The good news is that not all ASX 200 shares fell with the market. In fact, some were able to defy the weakness and charge higher.

Here’s why these were the best-performing shares on the ASX 200 in September:

Codan Ltd (ASX: CDA)

The Codan share price was a very strong performer and recorded a gain of 40%. The catalyst for this was the release of a trading update late in the month from the technology products company.

Codan revealed that group net profit after tax for the first half of FY 2027 is expected to be at least $160 million. This will be more than double the $71.2 million it recorded in the prior corresponding period.

This has been driven by robust demand for metal detectors and exceptionally strong demand for its communications products. 

Speaking about its full-year outlook, the company said:

While current indications are that the elevated sales order momentum in the Communications segment may continue into H2 FY27, order visibility in conflict regions is low and it is too early to determine whether the elevated demand and margin experienced in H1 FY27 will continue in H2 FY27. Balancing these factors, Codan is currently targeting full-year FY27 revenue growth for the Communications segment to be in the range of 30% to 40% compared to full-year FY26. 

Ingenia Communities Group (ASX: INA)

The Ingenia share price wasn’t far behind with a gain of 32% in September.

Investors were buying the communities developer’s shares after it received a series of takeover offers. While two of the proposals were rejected, the ASX 200 share is still considering an improved offer received late in the month from Warburg Pincus.

Its third offer was $5.25 cash per share, up from its previous offers of $4.75 per share and $5.05 per share, respectively. In response to the offer, Ingenia stated: 

The Ingenia Board is assessing the Further Revised Indicative Proposal with the assistance of its financial and legal advisers and will update securityholders in due course.

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1)

The Megaport share price was on form and raced 25% higher over the month.

Last month, Megaport upgraded its FY 2027 guidance after winning almost $1 billion of AI contracts. 

Megaport’s CEO, Michael Reid, commented:

Since April, we’ve announced approximately A$2.3 billion in total strategic contract value…Together with our existing business, these contracts support approximately A$1.1 billion in Group ARR once deployed. Earlier deployments, new contracts, and Network growth underpin our upgraded FY27 revenue and EBITDA margin guidance. Customers have committed approximately A$323 million in prepayments on today’s contracts, supporting the infrastructure investment behind future growth.

Reliance Worldwide Corporation Ltd (ASX: RWC)

The Reliance Worldwide share price outperformed with a 13% gain in September.

Investors were buying the plumbing parts company’s shares after it accepted a $4.1 billion takeover offer from Brookfield. It advised:

It is proposed that Brookfield will acquire all of the ordinary shares in RWC for cash consideration of US$3.38 for each RWC share. The Cash Consideration, which is now denominated in US dollars, implies a value of A$4.75 per share.

The post Which were the best-performing ASX 200 shares in September? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Megaport. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Megaport. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Meteoric Resources Ltd (ASX: MEI) jumped 50% in early trade on Thursday after the company announced a deal to be acquired by Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC).

The deal would grant Meteoric shareholders 0.0207 Lynas shares for each of the shares they held, valuing the deal at 26.6 cents.

Meteoric shares jumped 50% on the news to 25.5 cents.

Does the deal fully value Meteoric shares?

While the deal would pay a solid premium to Meteoric shareholders, it falls well short of a price target for the company issued by Canaccord Genuity in a research note published in July, which said Meteoric was worth 40 cents per share.

At the time the broker was very positive on a deal which Meteoric had signed with Korean giant Posco, relating to the development of Meteoric’s Caldeira rare earths project in Brazil.

CG said regarding the deal:

POSCO is one of the world’s largest steel producers, having had long-standing and deep involvement in upstream mining and resource projects in Australia and Brazil. In addition to steel producing inputs, POSCO has a presence in critical minerals including lithium and rare earths. In our view, the proposed partnership with POSCO is a major positive for MEI, through not only offtake (and favourable pricing mechanisms which could improve economics relative to China benchmarks), but perhaps just as importantly through its scale and access to capital and what this means for project financing.

Lynas talks up benefits of scale

Lynas said on Thursday that Meteoric shareholders would benefit from its expertise in managing rare earths project.

The company said:

Meteoric shareholders benefit from a significant control premium and unlocking of Caldeira’s value through Lynas’ strong balance sheet and proven experience in developing and operating rare earth projects, while also receiving immediate exposure to the only commercial producer and supplier of light and heavy rare earth oxides outside of China. Lynas’ ownership also brings opportunities to develop downstream processing in Brazil.

The Meteoric board has unanimously recommended the deal in the absence of a better offer, and Tolga Kumova, Meteoric’s largest shareholder with a 6.7% stake, also supports the deal.

Lynas Chair John Humphrey said:

Lynas is very pleased with the potential to bring together the Caldeira deposit which is the largest known ionic clay rare earth Mineral Resource outside China reported in accordance with the JORC Code, and Lynas’ high grade Mt Weld deposit and leading rare earth operations. This will deliver on our Towards 2030 growth objective of adding resource and scale. Expanding our operations into a new country will help Lynas maintain its leading position in the global rare earths supply chain and meet increased customer demand for rare earth materials.

Lynas shares were 5.9% lower at $13.01.

The post Which junior ASX mining stock has surged 50% on big news? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.