Now could be the time to sell the S&P/ASX 200 index (ASX: XJO) share in this article.

That’s because the team at Bell Potter has just put a sell rating on its shares and is warning of significant downside potential.

Which ASX 200 share?

The share in question is coal miner New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC).

Bell Potter notes that New Hope released its results this month and delivered a profit below expectations. It said:

Earlier this week, NHC reported FY26 underlying EBITDA of $514m (pre-reported) and statutory NPAT of $161m (BP est. $183m), below our estimates with higher finance expenses. In FY26, NHC realised an average price of A$145/t and average group FOB cash cost (excluding royalties) A$89/t (up 8% YoY) for an underlying margin of A$45/t, down 30% YoY with lower realised thermal coal prices. 

Though, one positive was that the ASX 200 share is paying a much larger than expected dividend despite the profit weakness. Bell Potter adds:

Operating cash flow was $564m and capex $193m for free cash flow $403m. A 30cps fully franked final dividend was declared (BPe 14cps, VA consensus 15cps), equating to $253m or 157% of statutory NPAT. At 31 July 2026, NHC had cash and liquid investments of $778m and debt (including leases) of $447m, for net cash of $332m. FY27 guidance was not released; NHC typically publish initial guidance with the October quarterly production report scheduled for November 2026.

Downgraded to sell

According to the note, Bell Potter has downgraded the ASX 200 share to a sell rating (from hold) with a $5.00 price target. 

Based on its current share price of $6.38, this implies potential downside of almost 22% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on the downgrade, the broker said:

We have downgraded our NHC recommendation to Sell on recent share price appreciation. Our $5.00/sh Target Price already incorporates a 14% premium to our sum-of-the-parts valuation, reflecting NHC’s leverage to global energy security themes amplified by recent geopolitical tensions. We expect energy markets will normalise over the near-term. Beyond the ramp-up of New Acland Stage 3, NHC has a limited organic production growth pipeline, and we expect earnings will peak in FY27. We expect NHC may participate in further industry consolidation as an acquirer.

Overall, this could make it worth keeping your powder dry for the time being and waiting for a better entry point down the line.

The post Guess which ASX 200 stock was downgraded to a sell rating appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• $10,000 invested in Zip and New Hope shares 3 years ago is now worth…

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The ASX dividend stock Regis Healthcare Ltd (ASX: REG) has fallen a huge 49% from its high just over a year ago and this looks like a great time to invest.

Regis is one of the largest aged care operators in Australia. It provides services to more than 10,000 older Australians through residential aged care homes, home care service hubs, day therapy, respite centres and retirement villages.

Some of the decline happened earlier this month after the company noted that the Australian National Aged Care Classification (AN-ACC) starting price will increase 2.55% from $295.64 to $303.19, starting 1 October 2026.

The government also announced that the hotelling supplement will remain unchanged at $22.15 per resident per day.

Regis Healthcare said that the price increase is significantly below cost inflation in the sector and the broader economy.

I think the ASX dividend stock is a buy for multiple reasons.

Significantly cheaper

It’s clear that conditions in the short-term are more challenging for Regis Healthcare, but I think the share price has more than made up for that.

It has fallen by roughly half in the space of a year. A share price is meant to reflect a company’s long-term future potential. I don’t think its long-term prospects have worsened by around 50%.

The company is still benefiting from the long-term tailwind of Australia’s ageing population. In FY26, its total occupied bed days increased 8.4% to 2.85 million, with its average occupancy increased by 0.7 percentage points to 95.8%.

FY26’s aged care revenue per occupied bed grew 6.7%, while aged care staff expenses per occupied bed rose 8.3%.

FY26 underlying operating profit (EBITDA) climbed 10% to $138 million, underlying net profit grew 4% to $55.6 million, and statutory net profit rose 14% to $55.7 million.

After falling so far, the business now trades at a much more appealing price/earnings (P/E) ratio.

According to the forecast on Commsec, the Regis Healthcare share price is now valued at 28x FY27’s estimated earnings.

Regis Healthcare said the industry requires 10,000 new beds per year to meet potential demand. In 2025, the industry added around 800 beds, falling well short of that target. As one of the big players in the sector, the ASX share will be an important player in meeting that demand in the coming years.

Mitigating actions to help protect against margin reduction

While the latest price update for aged care providers may not match expense growth, it will partially offset the rise in costs. Plus, the ASX dividend stock is undertaking a range of initiatives to mitigate ongoing margin pressures.

Its initiatives include an increase to room prices, a rollout of ‘higher everyday living fee (HELF)’ services, other revenue optimisation, and operational efficiency initiatives.

Hopefully those ideas will help reduce the burden of increased costs, without reducing service at its homes.

Pleasing dividend credentials with the ASX dividend stock

I’m not expecting a dividend increase from the business every year, though it has increased its annual payout each year for the last four consecutive years.

FY27 could see a reduction based on likely reduced profitability, but then projections suggest a return to regular dividend growth in the subsequent years.

According to the projection on Commsec, it could pay an annual dividend per share of 15.1 cents in FY27. That’d be a grossed-up dividend yield of 4.6%, including franking credits.

The FY29 annual dividend is projected to be 19.2 cents per share – larger than the FY26 dividend. This would be a grossed-up dividend yield of 5.8%, including franking credits.

I believe the ASX dividend stock’s payout could grow materially over the next five to ten years as ageing-demographic tailwinds continue to strengthen. This could be a good time to pounce.

The post 1 ASX dividend stock down 49% I’d buy right now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 2 ASX shares tipped to grow 30% or more in the next 12 months
• 9 ASX shares downgraded by experts post-results this week
• 40 ASX shares with ex-dividend dates next week
• Regis Healthcare reacts to government funding change
• Regis Healthcare reports higher FY26 profits and dividend

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you are looking for S&P/ASX 200 index (ASX: XJO) shares to buy (and sell), then it could be worth hearing what one expert is saying, courtesy of The Bull.

Here are two ASX 200 shares they are tipping as buys and one share that they think is a sell:

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL)

The team at Catapult Wealth is positive on supermarket giant Coles. 

It highlights the company’s attractive and reliable dividend yield and defensive earnings as reasons to buy. It said:

The supermarket industry structure remains favourable, with Coles and competitor Woolworths dominating market share. Coles posted group sales revenue of $45.580 billion in full year 2026, up 2.8 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Excluding significant items, group earnings before interest and tax of $2.322 billion was up 9.9 per cent. 

Supermarket eCommerce sales was a highlight, growing 26.4 per cent. Coles offers a reliable dividend yield, backed by defensive earnings. Catalysts for growth include online expansion, population growth and supply chain automation.

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB)

Catapult Wealth isn’t as positive on NAB and has named it as an ASX 200 share to sell this week.

It believes that growth will be challenging for the banking giant in the near term and thinks investors could get better value for money elsewhere in the market. Catapult Wealth explains:

Revenue grew by 2 per cent in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 when compared to the first half quarterly average. Cash earnings also increased by 2 per cent. In our view, the broader banking sector is facing several headwinds. The Federal Government announced changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing in the May Budget. 

Investment loan applications have slowed amid a cost of living crisis. While the NAB business is well managed and the balance sheet is solid, it’s difficult to identify any significant growth on the horizon. Investors may want to consider taking some profits and explore superior earnings growth opportunities elsewhere.

Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL)

The wealth management firm has named Netwealth as an ASX 200 share to buy.

It believes the investment management platform provider’s shares are trading at an attractive level following recent weakness. Catapult Wealth said:

Netwealth operates a leading investment management platform used by financial advisers in Australia. The company’s full year 2026 results continued to deliver strong growth, with the platform’s funds under administration increasing 20.3 per cent to $135.7 billion and earnings per share growing 16 per cent to 55.2 cents. 

Despite these strong results, the share price has fallen significantly, most likely and partially in response to a compensation payout of about $101 million to members in the collapsed First Guardian Master Fund. Share price weakness presents an opportunity, as Netwealth still holds a net cash position and is poised to generate strong revenue growth moving forward.

The post 2 ASX 200 shares to buy and 1 to sell now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: Coles, NAB, CSL shares
• Down 15% and paying record dividends: Are CBA shares now a good buy for passive income?
• Here’s the dividend forecast out to 2029 for Coles shares
• Telstra vs NAB: Which ASX blue chip is the better buy?
• 6 ASX 200 shares boosted by brokers this week

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.