It’s dividend season for ASX exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and several providers have announced their next payments.

Among them is VanEck, which has announced an estimated $17.99 per unit distribution for VanEck Gold Miners AUD ETF (ASX: GDX).

GDX ETF is trading at $114.80 per unit, up 2.3%, on Monday.

This means this next estimated distribution represents a whopping 15% dividend yield in a single payout.

VanEck will confirm the final amount tomorrow.

But whatever it is, it will be the biggest distribution this ASX ETF has ever paid since its inception in 2015.

For comparison, the FY25 distribution was 63 cents per unit.

Investors who own or buy GDX ETF before it goes ex-dividend on Wednesday will be entitled to the payment.

Why is this dividend so enormous?

ASX ETF providers call their payments ‘distributions’ rather than ‘dividends’ because they comprise several components.

The components include dividend income from the companies the ETF is invested in, and capital gains from the sale of stocks.

So why is this next one from GDX ETF so big?

For starters, ASX GDX pays distributions once per year, so this next payment represents earnings over a 12-month period.

But that’s only a minor reason. The primary driver is the runaway gold price, which has enabled miners to earn a motza.

Gold price bull run

The gold price has soared over several years now. In CY25, the gold price leapt a staggering 65% — its best year since 1979.

Even more amazing is that it followed an already impressive growth rate of 27% in CY24.

The bulk of this growth is down to central banks around the world buying gold to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar.

The catalyst was the freezing of Russia’s foreign-currency reserves after the Ukraine invasion in 2022.

On top of that was concern over new US policies under President Donald Trump since his inauguration in early 2025.

New tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on the US currency, and nations increasingly perceived the US as a less reliable defence partner.

All of this drove central banks to move increasingly away from US bonds. Gold — long considered a safe haven — was the best alternative.

Additionally, post-COVID inflation began to settle, interest rates fell globally, and the appeal of risk-free investments like cash fell.

Institutional investors and professional traders caught on over time, then we retail investors followed.

Large inflows into gold ETFs, especially in 1H FY26, sent the gold price to a record US$5,608 per ounce before a 21% crash in January.

Despite the correction in price to about US$4,405 per tonne, experts said gold miners were still going to make a tonne of money.

Warwick Grigor, an analyst at mining investment specialists Far East Capital, said implied profitability for gold producers was between US$3,000 and US$4,000 per ounce with the gold price at that level.

The gold price weakened further over 2H FY26 to trade at US$4,059.69 per tonne today.

On Grigor’s calculations, that still meant plenty of margin for miners, and it’s likely a big reason for GDX ETF’s mega distribution.

Mega capital gains as ASX ETFs and gold mining shares soar

While the gold price was ascending rapidly in CY24 and CY25, international and ASX 200 gold mining shares skyrocketed.

In Australia, the ASX 200’s largest gold mining share, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), ripped 73% higher in CY25 alone.

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares soared 164% while Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) shares rocketed 152%.

The Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) share price ascended 196% and Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) shares ripped 194%.

Resolute Mining Ltd (ASX: RSG) shares tripled in value, while Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU) more than doubled.

International gold shares may have done even better, and GDX ETF holds mining shares from all over the world.

This is likely another reason why GDX is paying out big-time this season: realised capital gains accumulated over several years.

More about GDX ETF

The GDX ETF seeks to track the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (AUD) Index.

ASX GDX invests in 105 gold mining shares, with 44% in Canada, 24% in the US, 9% in Australia, and 6% in Brazil.

The index only invests in miners with a market cap above US$750 million and an average daily traded value of at least US$1 million.

The free float market cap-weighted index applies a capping scheme to individual shares to ensure diversification.

GDX’s ETF has total net assets of $1.3 billion.

VanEck charges investors a 0.53% management fee.

View a list of other VanEck ETF distributions this season, as well as a list of Vanguard ETF dividends here.

The post Which ASX ETF will pay an eye-popping $18 per share dividend this season? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you read the morning 5 things to watch each day, you may often see a reference to ASX 200 futures.

They are usually mentioned in articles about what to watch before the Australian share market opens.

But what are they actually telling investors?

ASX 200 futures explained

ASX 200 futures are contracts linked to the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

The ASX 200 tracks 200 of the largest companies listed on the Australian share market, including banks, like Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), miners like BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), healthcare shares like CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL), retailers, property groups, infrastructure businesses, and industrial companies.

A futures contract allows traders to take a view on where that index may be heading.

If ASX 200 futures are pointing higher before the market opens, it suggests traders expect the Australian share market to start the day stronger. If they are pointing lower, it suggests the market may open weaker.

This is why they are often used as a quick guide to early market sentiment.

Why are they watched each morning?

The Australian share market does not trade overnight, but global markets keep moving.

Wall Street may rise or fall while Australian investors are sleeping. Commodity prices can shift. Bond yields, currencies, company earnings, and geopolitical news can all change before the local market opens.

ASX 200 futures respond to some of that information.

They give investors an early clue about how the market may react when trading begins.

This essentially helps set the scene before the opening bell.

Do futures always predict the market correctly?

ASX 200 futures can be useful, but they are only a guide.

The market can open differently from what futures suggest. It can also change direction quickly once trading begins.

That can happen because company-specific news, economic data, broker notes, dividend updates, and investor flows can all affect the market after the open.

For example, futures might suggest a weak start because Wall Street fell overnight. But if major mining shares rise on stronger commodity prices, or a large bank rallies on a positive update, the ASX 200 could perform better than expected.

The reverse can also happen.

Futures help investors understand the mood before the market opens, but they do not guarantee the outcome.

Who uses ASX 200 futures?

Futures are mainly used by professional traders, fund managers, and institutions.

They can be used to hedge portfolios, manage risk, or take short-term views on the direction of the market.

For everyday investors, the main value is informational.

What should investors take from them?

ASX 200 futures are best viewed as a morning temperature check.

They show where traders think the market may be heading before the ASX opens, based on overnight developments and early positioning.

A positive futures move can point to a stronger start. A negative move can signal a softer opening. But the actual trading day will still be shaped by company news, sector moves, economic data, and investor behaviour.

The post What are ASX 200 futures? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group and CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX biotech stock Neuren Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: NEU) is flying on Monday.

The ASX biotech stock jumped around 30% to $15.92 in morning trade after announcing a major regulatory breakthrough in Europe for its lead drug, DAYBUE.

Despite today’s rally, Neuren shares remain down approximately 15% in 2026. Over the past 12 months, however, the ASX biotech stock has gained around 17%, comfortably outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has risen about 3% over the same period.

So, what has investors so excited?

A major step towards European approval

Neuren revealed that the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) has adopted a positive opinion recommending marketing authorisation for DAYBUE following a re-examination process.

The recommendation now moves to the European Commission, which is expected to make a final decision over the coming months.

If approved, DAYBUE would become the first authorised treatment for the neurobehavioral symptoms of Rett syndrome across all 27 European Union member states, as well as Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway.

For the ASX biotech stock, the financial implications could be significant.

Why the decision matters

Neuren is a biotechnology company developing treatments for rare neurological disorders.

Its most advanced medicine is DAYBUE (trofinetide), which has been licensed to Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: ACAD) for commercialisation.

If the European Commission grants marketing approval and DAYBUE launches in Europe, Neuren will receive a US$35 million milestone payment following the first commercial sale.

The company would also become eligible for ongoing royalties on net sales and additional milestone payments if future sales targets are achieved.

That prospect helps explain today’s enthusiastic share price reaction.

European approval would open another major market for DAYBUE. Earlier, it launched in the US, creating a fresh revenue stream without Neuren needing to fund sales and marketing itself.

At its FY25 results, the ASX biotech stock reported $65 million in royalty income. It expects further growth in 2026 as DAYBUE sales expand. Acadia has guided for DAYBUE net sales of US$460 to US$490 million this year, implying another strong year of royalty growth for Neuren.

What management said

Neuren CEO Jon Pilcher welcomed the recommendation, saying:

I am so delighted for all stakeholders to see this positive outcome from the CHMP re-examination process recommending marketing authorisation for DAYBU® in the EU. With no approved treatment currently available in the EU, approval of DAYBU® would represent an important step forward for patients, caregivers and the wider Rett syndrome community profoundly impacted by this devastating condition.

What’s next for the ASX biotech stock?

While the CHMP recommendation is an important milestone, it is not the final step.

The European Commission must still formally approve the application, with a decision expected in the coming months.

If that happens, the ASX healthcare share would gain access to one of the world’s largest pharmaceutical markets. It would also unlock valuable milestone payments and recurring royalty income.

For investors, today’s rally reflects growing confidence that DAYBUE is edging closer to another major commercial opportunity.

The post Why this ASX biotech stock is soaring 30% today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.