I won’t pretend to be an impartial observer tonight.

My Roosters are playing the Dolphins in the NRL preliminary final, with a place in next weekend’s Grand Final on the line.

I want them to win. Preferably by enough that I can enjoy the last ten minutes.

And should the unthinkable happen, I’ll still be a Roosters supporter tomorrow. I’m not about to change teams because somebody else had a better night.

With the AFL Grand Final tomorrow, I’m hardly alone in getting a little bit carried away this weekend.

That’s part of being a footy fan.

But it can be a pretty ordinary way to be an investor. (It infects our policy conversations, too, but that’s a whole other rant!)

Now, before you think I’ve suddenly abandoned long-term investing, let me explain.

I remain devoted to buying good businesses, at sensible prices, and giving them time to deliver.

But there’s a difference between giving a business time and giving it an unlimited supply of excuses.

Between patience and denial.

Between owning shares and wearing the jersey (or guernsey, if you’re in our nation’s south or west).

Imagine two football clubs having disappointing seasons.

One has a young squad, a sensible development plan and players who are getting better. The results aren’t there yet, but you can see what the club is building.

The other keeps promising that next year will be different, while making the same mistakes.

Both might call it a rebuilding year.

Only one has given you a reason to believe it.

And that’s where our footy analogy helps. I bet if you’re a football fan, you’re already thinking of clubs that fit into each category.

That’s also the distinction we need to make with our investments. And, unfortunately, it requires more work than checking the share price.

A falling price doesn’t, by itself, tell you that the business is broken.

Nor does a rising price prove that everything is going wonderfully.

The price is what other investors are prepared to pay, right now. It isn’t a complete assessment of the company’s future.

It might be right. Or wrong. It might change tomorrow. Or not.

So, what should we look at?

You’re already ahead of me, right?

You need to look at the business. Not the three-letter code on your screen.

Are customers still buying what it sells? Is it maintaining its competitive position? Is cash coming through the door? Can it comfortably handle its debts?

And, where something has gone wrong, is there credible evidence – or at the very least, a high likelihood – that the problem can be fixed?

Consider a hypothetical retailer spending money on a new distribution centre. Profits might suffer while it gets the facility running. If customers remain loyal and the investment does what management promised, patience might be entirely sensible.

Now imagine another retailer losing customers because a competitor offers something better. Management keeps talking about “challenging conditions”, but the competitor seems to be doing just fine. Yes, I’m looking at you, Myer Holdings Ltd (ASX: MYR) and DJs.

Those are very different scenarios… and neither can be diagnosed from a red number on a screen.

The danger is that, once we own something, we can start looking for reasons to defend it.

We liked the company enough to buy it. Perhaps we told a mate about it. Selling would mean admitting we got something wrong.

Thing is… sometimes we do. I’d rather acknowledge a mistake than keep losing money because of it.

It’s also possible that we didn’t make a mistake at the time, but that circumstances have changed. We need to recognise that.

On the other hand, I’d also rather endure an uncomfortable period than abandon a good business just because the market has lost patience.

Holding on, out of stubbornness? Selling to cauterise the wound and stop the pain?

They’re both bad ideas.

The right approach? Become more honest about why you still own what you own.

Here’s the question to ask, even before share prices start moving:

“What would have to happen for me to change my mind about this business?”

Not how much the share price might move – but what would need to change about the company itself.

Losing a competitive advantage, perhaps. Taking on more debt than it can sensibly manage. Discovering that the opportunity you thought existed was smaller than you’d assumed – either because you sized it wrong, or because the company just didn’t execute (Remember Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)’s short foray into hardware? Yeah, that.)

Write that down before you need it. Then revisit it when meaningful new information arrives, rather than rewriting the test to excuse every disappointment.

Long-term investing should mean giving a sound investment case time to play out. It shouldn’t mean refusing to notice when that case has changed.

Your job isn’t to prove that every decision you’ve ever made was right.

It’s to make good decisions with the information you have now.

So, enjoy the footy. Be hopelessly biased. Leave one eye closed, at least until the final hooter/whistle/siren.

(But also, lay off the umpires and referees, and congratulate the other team if they win.)

And yes, be loyal to your portfolio… but its long term potential, not the ‘players’ inside it.

Tomorrow’s Grand Final? I’m a New South Welshman, talking about a game in Victoria, played between a team from Queensland and one from Western Australia. Fair to say, I have no dog in that fight.

But tonight?

Go the mighty Chooks! #EastsToWin

Fool on!

The post Don’t treat your companies like your footy team appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Scott Phillips has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Myer. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Just when it looked like Xero shares might finally find some support, the selling has continued on Friday.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) shares are currently down 3.21% to $57.125, having fallen as low as $56.22 earlier in the session.

That leaves the stock trading around 64% below its value 12 months ago and almost 50% lower in 2026.

And yet, I’m becoming increasingly bullish.

While the share price suggests something has gone terribly wrong, Xero’s underlying business continues to deliver impressive growth.

At these levels, I think investors could be looking at an excellent long-term buying opportunity.

Here’s why.

Xero’s business is still growing

Looking at Xero’s latest financial results, you’d be forgiven for wondering why its shares have fallen so far.

According to its FY26 results, operating revenue increased 31% to NZ$2.75 billion, while adjusted EBITDA climbed 18% to NZ$757.4 million.

The company also added 506,000 customers, taking its global customer base to 4.92 million.

Annualised monthly recurring revenue jumped 37% to NZ$3.27 billion, while free cash flow reached NZ$554 million.

Those are impressive numbers, particularly when you consider what’s happened to the share price.

Admittedly, net profit declined 27% to NZ$167.4 million, with acquisition-related costs weighing on earnings.

But I’m far more interested in where the business is heading over the next few years.

Management expects FY27 revenue of NZ$3.62 billion to NZ$3.73 billion, alongside adjusted EBITDA of NZ$860 million to NZ$920 million.

That’s another substantial increase in revenue, and a good indication that Xero’s growth story is far from over.

Why I’m bullish on Xero shares

I think investors are overlooking just how much growth Xero still has ahead of it.

The company has previously estimated its addressable market at approximately 100 million small and medium-sized businesses worldwide.

With fewer than 5 million customers today, there’s still an enormous opportunity to expand.

And it’s not just about attracting more subscribers.

Its acquisition of Melio gives Xero a stronger position in the US payments market, opening up another opportunity to grow revenue beyond accounting subscriptions.

I also think AI could make Xero’s platform more valuable over time by automating more of the financial tasks involved in running a small business.

The company already has an established platform, millions of customers, and access to valuable financial data.

With revenue expected to grow by around 30% in FY27, I think the market is seriously underestimating Xero’s long-term potential.

All in all, I see an excellent opportunity to buy a high-quality growth business at attractive levels.

The post Xero shares have crashed 64%. Here’s why I’m buying appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares have stormed higher through the first nine months of 2026.

At the time of writing on Friday afternoon, the shares are trading in the green, up around 1% to $38.51. 

The latest increase means the shares are now up an impressive 31% for the year to date, and they’re 44% higher than 12 months ago.

The increase has been pretty stable and consistent, too.

The supermarket giant’s stock has mostly trended upwards (with the exception of a dip in late April and a recovery a month later).

It looks like the growing share price is mostly driven by investor confidence that the company’s turnaround story is coming to fruition, after a difficult period in 2025.

The supermarket’s most recent price-sensitive news was the announcement of its impressive FY26 results in late August. It posted a 3.6% year-on-year increase in sales and a 6.7% increase in EBITDA (before significant items). On the bottom line, Woolworths achieved a 15.4% increase in its NPAT (before significant items) for the year.

As part of its FY26 results announcement, management declared a 52-cent per share dividend, up 15.6% from FY25.

It’s been tailwind after tailwind for Woolworths shares this year. Now the question is, is there any more upside left? Or has the ASX consumer staples stock finally reached a ceiling?

Buy, hold, or sell? Here’s what brokers forecast for Woolworths shares

The experts are divided.

Market Index data shows that brokers are split equally between a hold and a sell rating. The $37.57 average target price implies a potential 2% downside ahead.

On TradingView, the majority of analysts (nine out of 17) have a hold rating on the shares. Another six rate Woolworths shares are a sell/strong sell and two rate them as a buy.

The $39.67 average target price implies a potential 3% upside ahead. Although the range between the maximum and minimum is quite wide. Some tip the shares to fall 8% to $35.40, and others think they would increase 13% to $43.50, at the time of writing.

Shaw and Partners has a sell rating on Woolworths shares. The broker warns that the shares could struggle to outperform over coming months. It adds that the supermarket has experienced a strong recovery in the past year, and now much of the recent improvement is reflected in the share price.

Elsewhere, Bell Potter is more positive. The broker has a hold rating on Woolworths shares and a $42.35 target price. It was impressed with the company’s latest FY26 results but doesn’t think potential growth is high enough to warrant a buy rating.

Morgans has an accumulate rating and $43.50 target price. Following the supermarket’s results, the broker is more confident that its sales growth can be sustained.

The post Woolworths shares jump 31% in 2026. Is there any upside left? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.