The analysts at Barrenjoey are tipping significant upside for Navigator Global Investments Ltd (ASX: NGI) shares following the company’s sale of its stake in Invictus Capital.

Strong return on investment

Earlier this week, Navigator said New York Life Investment Management would acquire a 60% stake in Invictus Capital Partners from Navigator and other shareholders, with the remaining interest to be purchased in 2031.

Navigator said the deal delivered it material upfront proceeds of US$40 million to US$43 million, with a potential earn-out of up to US$32 million in 2030.

An additional consideration would be determined by Invictus’ future business growth, Navigator added.

The company said the transaction implied a materially higher valuation for Invictus compared to its initial investment in 2022.

Navigator added:

For NGI, the Transaction represents a partial realisation at an attractive valuation, while retaining meaningful exposure to Invictus’ ongoing growth and performance over the multi-year period to 2030 through retained interests, existing carried interest and fund investments, and potential future consideration. The Initial Closing is expected to occur in the first quarter of 2027, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals. It is anticipated to deliver a significant return on NGI’s invested capital, with value realised through upfront proceeds at the Initial Closing, potential earn-out consideration and additional consideration at the Deferred Closing in 2031.

Navigator Chief Investment Officer Ross Zachary said the deal “serves as an example of how NGI’s partnership model can create value for all stakeholders of alternative investment management firms”.

Navigator added:

NGI first partnered with Invictus in August 2022, with total consideration of approximately US$115 million paid over three years. Since then, Invictus has more than tripled gross assets, generating strong outcomes for its investors and extending its leadership position in the U.S. residential mortgage credit market. The results of the partnership, including distributions received by NGI and the growth in the value of NGI’s interests before consideration of the Transaction, have exceeded NGI’s return targets and generated an attractive return for shareholders.

Analysts like the look of the deal

Barrenjoey analysts said in a note to clients that the deal highlights that the price for one of Navigator’s private market firms was well above the valuation it is trading on.

They added:

We estimate a PE for the sale in the high teens, perhaps into the 20s based on management fee-only profits.

Barrenjoey has a price target of $4.20 for Navigator shares, compared with the current $2.43.

Macquarie also issued a new research note on Navigator following the announcement, with a price target of $3.24.

Navigator is valued at $1.51 billion.

The post Barrenjoey tips this ASX financial stock to rise 73% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) shares are taking off on Wednesday morning.

The DroneShield share price is currently up 8.98% to $1.76, after closing yesterday at $1.615.

At one stage, the counter-drone stock climbed as high as $1.82 as investors reacted to an update released before market open.

It’s a welcome move for shareholders after a difficult year, with DroneShield shares still down more than 60% over the past 12 months.

So, what has the company announced today?

DroneShield lands huge US opportunity

According to the release, DroneShield’s US subsidiary has secured a new contract with the US Joint Interagency Task Force 401 (JIATF-401).

The 3-year Indefinite Delivery, Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract has a ceiling value of US$500 million.

It gives DroneShield the opportunity to compete for future orders as the US rolls out more counter-drone systems across the country.

These systems will be used to protect military bases, critical infrastructure, and other high-priority locations from drone threats.

However, there is one thing investors need to keep in mind before getting too excited.

The US$500 million isn’t guaranteed revenue, and DroneShield said the contract doesn’t lock in any orders at this stage.

Still, I think this is a pretty big development.

DroneShield now has a way to compete for some potentially large US defence orders over the next 3 years.

US relationship continues to grow

It’s important to note this isn’t DroneShield’s first piece of work with JIATF-401.

Earlier this year, the company secured a $24.9 million contract to supply mobile and fixed-site counter-drone systems.

DroneShield has since delivered its DroneSentry-X Mk2 systems, completing installation, testing, and operator training in around 80 days.

Another 3 systems are also planned under a modification to the original contract.

Could short sellers add fuel to the rally?

There could also be another factor helping DroneShield shares today.

The latest data shows short interest in the company was sitting at 14.76% as of 23 September.

That puts DroneShield at the top of the list as the most shorted stock on the ASX, with plenty of traders betting its share price will fall.

Keep in mind, though, today’s announcement could put some of those short sellers under pressure.

DroneShield shares are already up almost 9%, and if the buying continues, some short sellers could decide it’s time to close their positions.

To do that, they need to buy DroneShield shares back on the market.

That could add more buying pressure and give the share price another boost.

I’d keep a close eye on this stock before the year’s end.

The post Why is the DroneShield share price surging 9% on Wednesday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It may be time to sell those Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares.

That’s according to Red Leaf Securities’ John Athanasiou, who earlier this week issued a sell recommendation on both ASX travel stocks (courtesy of The Bull).

In morning trade today, CBA shares are changing hands for $149.07 each, down 0.8%. That sees shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stock down 10.8% since this time last year, trailing the 1.6% 12-month losses posted by the benchmark index.

Now some of that underperformance will have been mitigated by the two fully franked CBA dividends, totalling $5.05 a share, that the big four bank paid out over the year. CBA shares trade on a 3.4% fully franked trailing dividend yield.

It’s a bit of a more complicated picture for Corporate Travel Management shares, which only resumed trading on the ASX on 3 September. As you may be aware, Corporate Travel shares were suspended back in August 2025 following some material accounting errors.

Prior to the suspension, Corporate Travel shares were trading for $16.07. On 3 September, shares crashed 85.6% to close the day at $2.32 as frustrated investors overheated their sell buttons.

In morning trade today, the Corporate Travel share price stands at $2.32.

With those pictures in mind…

Time to exit CBA shares?

“CBA is Australia’s highest quality major bank, but, in my view, quality doesn’t always represent value,” Red Leaf Securities’ Athanasiou said.

Explaining his sell recommendation on CBA shares, Athanasiou noted:

Its premium valuation leaves limited room for disappointment as rising interest rates potentially slow credit growth and increase borrower stress. Investors could use the opportunity to take profits and consider better-value alternatives elsewhere in the banking sector.

Should I sell Corporate Travel shares?

Atop his bearish outlook on CBA shares, Athanasiou also issued as sell recommendation on Corporate Travel shares.

“CTD reported improved underlying earnings in fiscal year 2026,” he said.

Indeed, the company reported a 4% year on year increase in revenue and other income to $670 million, with underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) up 36% to $114 million.

But that’s not enough to keep this ASX share off Athanasiou’s sell list.

“However, in my view, questions remain around historical customer remediation, governance, financial controls and funding requirements,” he said.

Summarising his sell recommendation on Corporate Travel shares, he concluded:

In a company update on April 22, 2026, a review had found that UK customers were charged in excess of their contractual entitlement. On September 1, 2026, the company noted about 78 per cent of customer refunds had been agreed or were nearing finalisation.

In my view, the near term risk-reward equation remains unattractive.

The post Sell alert! Expert calls time on Corporate Travel and CBA shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Corporate Travel Management. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Corporate Travel Management. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.