The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price has dropped more than 10% since mid-June, as the chart below shows, which has boosted the dividend yield.

BHP has been an excellent dividend pick over the last decade, with the ASX mining share benefiting from various times of higher iron ore prices. Even an iron ore price of US$100 per tonne can allow it to make good earnings.

The company’s main commodities are iron ore and copper, though it also produces coal and is building a potash project in Canada called Jansen.

Following the company’s recent valuation decline, I think it’s worthwhile to consider the ASX mining share.

Dividend projection

According to the forecast on Commsec, the business could deliver a relatively pleasing dividend payout for shareholders.

The business is projected to pay an annual dividend per share of A$2.148 in the 2026 financial year. At the time of writing, this translates into a forward grossed-up dividend yield of 5.4%, including franking credits.

That’s not the biggest dividend yield on the ASX and the BHP dividend yield has been higher in recent years. That’s partly because the BHP share price has gone up so much in recent times, it’s (still) up 25% this year and up 47% in the past 12 months.

The higher the share price goes, the lower the dividend yield, assuming the dividend payment stays the same.

Is the BHP share price a buy?

There’s much more to the appeal of a business than just the passive income on offer.

The valuation also needs to make sense; otherwise, capital losses could offset the passive dividend income.

The latest update from the ASX mining share was its operating update for the period ending 30 June 2026.

Its most important commodities are iron ore and copper, so I’ll focus on those.

In the three months to June 2026, copper production was 491.9k, up 3% quarter-over-quarter but down 5% year-over-year. Iron ore production was 68.1mt, up 8% quarter-over-quarter, but down 3% year-over-year.

What was perhaps even more interesting was the guidance it gave. BHP produced 1.95mt of copper in FY26, but only expects between 1.65mt to 1.8mt of copper in FY28 – a sizeable decline. FY27 iron ore production is expected to be between 260mt to 272mt, down from 264.7mt in FY26.

Lower copper production is not ideal, given its plans to ramp up production in the coming years to take advantage of strong demand.

Even so, both the copper price and iron ore price are at strong enough levels that the business can generate strong profits. However, at the current elevated BHP share price, I’m not sure it’s an attractive buy.

Broker analysts seem to have a similar view. According to CMC Invest, of 14 recent ratings on the ASX mining share, two were buys and 12 were holds. The average price target is $59.08, suggesting only a slight rise (at the time of writing) over the next 12 months.

There are quite a few other ASX shares I’d rather buy for dividends.

The post Is the BHP share price a buy for its 5% dividend yield? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• BHP shares soared 62% in FY26. Can they keep climbing?
• Why I think BHP is the best ASX mining share
• How to build an ASX dividend portfolio that keeps paying you for decades
• What is Morgan’s updated view on Rio Tinto and BHP shares?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP shares were one of the standout performers on the ASX 200 last financial year.

The BHP share price soared 62% in FY26 to finish at $59.40 on 30 June.

That was a spectacular run for the Australia’s largest company.

The question now is whether the shares can keep climbing in FY27.

Let’s take a look.

What drove BHP shares higher in FY26

Two forces did most of the heavy lifting.

First, commodity prices ran hot: the copper price rose 18% over FY26 and hit a record US$6.60 per pound in May.

Iron ore prices also climbed by around 7%.

Second, investors rotated heavily into mining stocks.

That combination pushed BHP shares to a new high in FY26.

Yet there is a bigger story here: BHP is now the world’s largest copper producer.

Copper made up more than half of the company’s underlying EBITDA in the first half of FY26. Copper is essential to electrification, data centres, and the broader energy transition. All of these are global megatrends that can be expected to only intensify in future years.

For the first time in BHP’s history, copper earnings exceeded those of iron ore.

Can BHP shares keep climbing?

After such a big run, the easy gains may be behind us.

Most brokers are now sitting on the fence.

Morgans recently reiterated a hold rating and lifted its target from $54.90 to $59.80. Macquarie also has a hold rating with a $60.20 target. Overall, the broker consensus target sits near $61.44.

Based on recent prices, that implies only modest single-digit upside.

The dividend still appeals, though. CommSec estimates dividends of $2.10 per share in FY26, a yield of around 3.6%.

BHP’s balance sheet also remains strong, with low net debt.

However, not everything is smooth sailing. A review of the Jansen potash project in Canada resulted in a hefty cost blowout.

There is also the ongoing concern around industrial action at BHP’s Pilbara iron ore operations.

Investors will get more clarity when the company reports its FY26 results on 18 August.

Foolish takeaway

BHP shares have had a brilliant run.

Copper’s growing role in the global economy also gives investors a long-term tailwind.

But after a 62% gain, brokers see only limited near-term upside.

For patient investors, the dividend and copper leverage may still appeal.

Just don’t expect BHP shares to repeat their FY26 heroics every single year.

The post BHP shares soared 62% in FY26. Can they keep climbing? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why I think BHP is the best ASX mining share
• How to build an ASX dividend portfolio that keeps paying you for decades
• What is Morgan’s updated view on Rio Tinto and BHP shares?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Buy, hold, sell: BHP, CBA, and Rio Tinto shares

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

I think the best way to invest in ASX shares is for the long-term, with a decade or more being my preferred investment time horizon.

If investors hold for that length of time, it gives compounding the best opportunity to deliver results over the long-term.

Given how rapidly the world is changing in relation to technology and AI, I’m less optimistic about some ASX tech stocks than I used to be. That’s partly why I think the investments below could be strong ASX share picks for the long term.

Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG)

GYG is one of the best quick service restaurant (QSR) businesses in Australia, in my view. At the end of March 2026, it had 242 Australian locations, along with 23 Singapore restaurants and five Japanese locations.

The company is aiming for 1,000 Australian restaurants within the next 20 years, which could mean significant network sales growth and excellent scale benefits.

In the third quarter of FY26, the company reported that Australian total network sales rose by 19.7% to $320.4 million, and Asian network sales grew by 15% to $21.5 million.

The business is growing network sales thanks to both solid comparable sales growth and an expanding mutlinational network.

Over the next decade, I expect the company to significantly increase its restaurant network, increase its market awareness and boost profit margins. I believe the market is underestimating how much the business could grow network sales overseas, which could unlock a lot of royalty income – its Asian operations are under a master franchise agreement.

According to the company, it’s expecting its Australian and Asian operations to grow their underlying operating profit (EBITDA) by 29% in FY26 to $85 million, showing an increase in its profit margins.

According to the projection on Commsec, the GYG share price is valued at 33x FY28’s estimated earnings, which I think is an appealing price for this fast-growing ASX share.

Global X S&P World Ex Australia GARP ETF (ASX: GARP)

Another investment that I want to highlight is this exchange-traded fund (ETF), which aims to give investors exposure to a portfolio of global businesses that fit the bill when it comes to the investing strategy ‘growth at a reasonable price’ (GARP).

When you buy growing businesses at a good price, it can lead to excellent investment returns over the long-term.

There are three different things that the GARP ETF looks for to include in its portfolio of 250 companies across different countries and sectors.

It wants to see growth characteristics, with a good pace of 3-year sales and earnings growth.

Second, it wants to see ‘value’. That is identified by the price/earnings (P/E) ratio.

Finally, this GARP strategy involves looking at the quality of these businesses. That includes looking at the financial leverage (debt levels) and return on equity (ROE). ROE tells us how much profit is making compared to the retained amount of shareholder money – the higher the ROE the better.

Since inception in September 2024, the GARP ETF has returned an average of 16.8%. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns of course, but I’m bullish about this strategy being able to continue to deliver good returns for the next decade and beyond.

These aren’t the only ASX shares I think would make excellent long-term investments.

The post 2 top ASX shares to buy and hold for the next decade appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Where I’d invest $20,000 into ASX growth shares right now
• 2 ASX shares highly recommended to buy: Experts
• The currency-hedged ASX ETFs magnifying dividends by up to 10x this season

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Guzman Y Gomez. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.