Investors are still licking their wounds from the dramatic big bank dividend cuts, but there’s another sector that’s at dividend risk.

The decision to slice or skip these precious payouts is a big reason why banks like the Australia and New Zealand Banking GrpLtd (ASX: ANZ) share price and Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) share price are still well below their pre-COVID-19 levels.

While the worst of the pandemic appears to be behind us, it will be awhile before the big banks can fully restore their dividends.

Income investors beware

There’s another group of dividend disappointers that are likely to reveal themselves during the August profit reporting season – and that’s property trusts.

Property stocks are a favourite among income-seeking investors and Morgan Stanley warns that the payout ratios in this sector may need to be cut.

Falling rents will not only pressure earnings, but are likely to force some to write down the value of these assets.

Properties under pressure

“On a 6- to 18-month view, asset values in Retail property, and Office to a lesser extent, will be subject to downward pressure as rent structures get reviewed, and office vacancies increase,” said Morgan Stanley.

“This means the gearing of these companies is likely to escalate, holding all else constant.”

This means property stocks may need to hold on to more cash to shore up their balance sheets and give themselves more flexibility.

Stocks most at risk

That will come at the expense of dividends with the broker estimating that a 15% drop in asset values could prompt most in the sector to lower their payout ratios to 50%.

It’s those most exposed to retail properties that are the most likely to cut their distributions. These include Scentre Group (ASX: SCG), Vicinity Centres (ASX: VCX) and Stockland Corporation Ltd (ASX: SGP), according to Morgan Stanley.

A 15% drop in property value will drive Vicinity’s gearing up to around 32% from 27%, while Stockland’s gearing is already near the top of management’s target 20% to 30% range.

Falling yields

“Lowering payout ratios to 50% would mean SCG, VCX and SGP’s FY21e yields decline to 3.9%,3.3%, and 4.2% respectively,” said the broker.

“[This is] well below the 5-6% the market has become accustomed to. At headline level, this is not a positive.”

However, Morgan Stanley thinks the market will forgive a dividend cut if it’s used as a temporary (maybe up to two years) measure to strengthen balance sheets.

This is especially so if it means the companies do not need to undertake a capital raising.

Not good enough

In my view, this makes the sector rather unappealing. Not only are the yields low even in this low interest rate environment, but there’s the added uncertainty from looming structural changes for both malls and offices.

I think there are better value stocks to be targeting in this market. If you are looking for other options, the experts at the Motley Fool have picked their best ASX stocks for the post-coronavirus world.

Find out what these are for free by clicking the link below.

More reading

• What a record rebound in oil demand in 2021 means for ASX energy stocks
• ASX 200 down 0.1%: Carsales update impresses, a2 Milk surges higher
• Got $3,000? These 5 beaten-down ASX shares are begging to be bought
• Is the ANZ share price a buy today?
• Can ASX big banks generate an attractive sustainable dividend yield from FY21?

Motley Fool contributor BrenLau owns shares of Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Limited and Westpac Banking. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Scentre Group. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The S&P/ASX 50 index is home to 50 of the largest shares on the Australian share market. These are predominantly household names and companies that are true blue chip shares.

While not all shares on the index are necessarily in the buy zone, I think there are a few that could be.

Here’s why I would buy these three outstanding ASX 50 shares:

Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ASX: ALL)

The first ASX 50 share to consider buying is Aristocrat Leisure. I’m a big fan of the gaming technology company due to the quality of both it poker machine and digital businesses. I believe both businesses have the potential to grow at an above-average rate over the long term thanks to their quality portfolios, high levels of investment in product design, and strong market positions. Combined, I expect solid earnings growth from Aristocrat Leisure for years to come once the pandemic passes. This could make it a top long term option.

Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO)

Another ASX 50 share I would buy is Rio Tinto. I think the mining giant could be a great option for investors that are wanting to diversify their portfolio with a little exposure to the resources sector. Especially given the recent increase in the iron ore price. This looks to have positioned Rio Tinto perfectly to deliver bumper free cash flows from its world class operations in FY 2020 and FY 2021. And given the strength of its balance sheet, this is likely to lead to the miner rewarding shareholders with handsome dividends.

Woolworths Limited (ASX: WOW)

A final ASX 50 share which I think is worth considering is Woolworths. I’m a big fan of Woolworths due to its quality brands (Woolworths supermarkets, Dan Murphy’s, BWS), their defensive qualities, and its strong management team. I believe they have put the company in a position to generate robust earnings growth for the foreseeable future. And with Woolworths traditionally paying out a good portion of its profits as dividends, this bodes well for investors in search of income in this low interest rate environment.

More reading

• 3 high yield ASX dividend shares for income investors
• UBS picks the best ASX retail stocks for the post COVID-19 world
• Investing $1,000 into these ASX 200 shares could be a smart move
• I think Aristocrat shares are outstanding value
• Why the ASX 200 tumbled lower on Monday and 2 shares to buy

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Woolworths Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post 3 fantastic ASX 50 shares I would buy today appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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