Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) shares have been on a tear since plumbing a one-year closing low of $71.26 on 18 May.

During the Tuesday lunch hour today, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) conglomerate – whose retail subsidiaries include Bunnings Warehouse, Kmart Australia, Officeworks, and Priceline – are trading for $91.73 apiece.

That sees the Wesfarmers share price up an impressive 28.7% in just two months.

Taking a step back, the ASX 200 stock is up 12.2% in 2026, well ahead of the 0.4% year-to-date gains posted by the benchmark index.

And that’s not including the $1.02 per share fully-franked dividend the company paid to eligible stockholders on 31 March. Wesfarmers stock trades on a 2.8% fully-franked trailing dividend yield.

Looking ahead, however, Alto Capital’s Tony Locantro believes the company may struggle to deliver further outperformance over the coming months (courtesy of The Bull).

Wesfarmers shares: Buy, hold, or sell?

“Market leading businesses include retailers Bunnings, Kmart Group and Officeworks,” Locantro noted.

As for Wesfarmers’ recent financial performance, he said:

The company delivered a strong first half result in full year 2026, reporting net profit after tax of $1.603 billion, up 9.3%, reflecting continued earnings growth across its retail portfolio amid disciplined operational execution.

But following the strong gains posted by Wesfarmers shares, Locantro issued a sell recommendation on the stock. He concluded:

Despite these strong fundamentals, much of the company’s quality and long-term growth outlook appear fully reflected in its premium valuation. While Wesfarmers remains an outstanding long-term business, future upside may be constrained by elevated market expectations.

Given the strong share price performance and demanding valuation, the current risk-reward balance supports taking profits at current levels.

What’s the latest from the ASX 200 stock?

Wesfarmers reported its half-year results (H1 FY 2026) on 19 February.

The 9.3% year-on-year profit boost Locantro mentioned above was driven by a 3.1% increase in half-year revenue to $24.21 billion.

And earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) leapt by 8.4% to $2.49 billion.

“Wesfarmers’ increase in profit was supported by strong earnings contributions from our largest divisions – Bunnings, Kmart Group and WesCEF,” Wesfarmers managing director Rob Scott said of the results.

Addressing the challenging market conditions the company faced in the six months to 31 December, Scott added:

Despite a modest improvement in consumer demand, higher costs continued to weigh on many households and businesses, and residential construction activity remained subdued. The divisions performed well, driving productivity to mitigate cost pressures and keep prices low for customers.

Amid high market expectations, Wesfarmers shares closed down 5.6% on the day of the results release.

The post Up 29% since May, can Wesfarmers shares keep surging higher? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in ASX defence stock, Austal Ltd (ASX: ASB), have fallen further into the red in Tuesday trading. 

At the time of writing, the shares are down another 0.5% and are trading at $3.38 each.

The drop means the shares have now fallen by more than 50% year to date and are also around 45% lower than this time last year.

What does Austal do?

Austal is an Australian-based global shipbuilding company specialising in the design, construction, and support of defence and commercial vessels.

These include naval vessels, defence surface warfare combatants, and law enforcement patrol boats.

The company also installs and maintains vessel command and control systems, communication and radar technology, and information management systems.

What happened to the ASX defence stock?

Its share price spiked to an all-time high of $8.76 in January as tailwinds pushed ASX defence sector stocks higher overall.

The company also won a few new contracts in late December, including a contract extension worth more than $135 million to build two new Evolved Cape-class Patrol Boats for the Australian Border Force, bringing the total contracted to 14 vessels. 

Austal was also awarded a $1.029 billion design and construct contract to build 18 Landing Craft Medium (LCM) vessels for the Australian Army under the Commonwealth’s Strategic Shipbuilding Agreement.

In January, US President Donald Trump also said the 2027 US defence budget should be US$1.5 trillion, well above the US$901 million approved so far. Other countries also began bolstering their defence spending.

In February, Austal posted its first-half FY26 results, revealing a 34.4% year-on-year increase in revenue. Its EBIT also climbed 41.3%, and net profit climbed 21.4%. But it also cut its earnings guidance for FY26, citing an accounting issue. 

The news spooked investors and triggered a sell-off that Austal shares have struggled to recover from.

Surprisingly, even news of the increase of conflict in the Middle East didn’t do enough to convince investors to buy back in.

The shares are now down 61% from that January peak.

Are Austal shares a buy, sell, or hold now?

If broker forecasts are anything to go by, it’s time to load up on Austal shares while they’re still cheap.

TradingView data shows that there are only three analyst ratings on the ASX defence stock. One is a hold, and the other two are a strong buy.

They all agree on some element of upside ahead, although the range is pretty significant.

The minimum $4.10 target price implies a potential 20% upside.

The average $6.14 target price implies a potential 80% upside, at the time of writing.

And the maximum $7.71 target price implies that the shares could jump 126% higher over the next 12 months.

The post Down 61%: Can this ASX defence stock rebound, or is it time to sell up? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) shares have climbed around another 0.5% to a fresh two-year high of $38.08 in Tuesday trade.

At one point this morning, the petroleum company’s shares were trading as high as $38.33.

Today’s increase means the shares are now up 19% for the year to date, and have rallied 40% higher over the past 12 months.

What has pushed Ampol shares to a multi-year high?

Ampol’s shares have been driven higher by a combination of volatile global oil supply and company growth, including improved production and profit.

The company is Australia’s largest transport energy distributor and retailer, with more than 1,800 Ampol-branded service stations across the country. 

Unsurprisingly, its shares have rocketed higher on the back of conflict in the Middle East and concerns about global oil supply.

Ampol shares have jumped 37% higher since the war between the US and Iran ramped up in late February.

The shares suffered a temporary lull towards the back end of June when it looked like the two nations had reached a peace deal. Even so, the ceasefire was unstable, and even though the Strait of Hormuz partially reopened, supply continued to be very constrained and unpredictable. 

But Ampol shares rocketed higher again this morning as the peace talks fell apart in early July and the region descended into war again.

According to Trading Economics, the price of WTI crude oil has also surged higher this month, and is trading over the US$83 per barrel mark at the time of writing. 

There is still some way to go before the price returns to the US$113 per barrel level seen in April, but it is still significantly higher than the US$60 per barrel levels seen earlier this year.

Prices for Brent oil, gasoline, heating oil, and Ethanol have also jumped higher over the past month.

It’s not only oil supply and prices supporting this year’s share price rise.

Ampol has also posted a few updates that have gathered investor attention. In June, Ampol received the green light, with conditions, from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) for a proposed acquisition of fuel and convenience store operator EG Australia. 

The company previously confirmed a 10% increase in refinery production, higher refiner margins, and increased production in its Q1 FY26 trading update.

What are brokers tipping for Ampol shares next?

It looks like we could see some more upside for Ampol shares over the next 12 months.

Market Index data shows that the majority of brokers have a buy rating on the shares. The $38.75 target price currently implies a potential 2% upside.

TradingView data shows something similar. Out of 10 analysts, eight have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock. One more rates Ampol shares as a hold and one as a sell.

The average $38.29 target price implies a potential 1% upside over the next 12 months, at the time of writing. Whereas, the maximum $46.50 target price implies the shares have the potential to surge another 23%.

The post Ampol shares rallied 40% to hit fresh 2-year high. Buy, sell or hold? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• ASX 200 energy shares rebound after US-Iran peace deal falls apart
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Ampol launches new $400m subordinated notes facility

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.