Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) shares fell further into the red in September, down around 31% over the course of the month.

At the time of writing, the ASX technology stock is down around 1% to $57.39. That means the shares are down 49% year-to-date and 64% lower than 12 months ago.

It’s been well-documented that the cloud-based accounting software business has been smashed by a tech-sector wide selloff this year after investors became spooked that AI could replace the core services of companies like Xero. 

There has also been an investor rotation away from growth stocks and into more defensive assets amid ongoing global volatility and inflation concerns.

No price-sensitive news explains why Xero shares have shed so much value over the past month. Investors may have taken profits after the shares rebounded strongly through July and most of August.

The resurgence of macroeconomic pressures has also spooked investors across the board. This hasn’t helped Xero’s share price downturn.

Concerns about the latest inflation figures and the Reserve Bank’s interest rate hike in September has only contributed to headwinds.

The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate to a 15-year high of 4.6% at its meeting earlier this week. On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced that Australia’s annual headline inflation rate jumped to 4% in the 12 months to August 2026, up from 3.5% the month prior.

As of late September, Australian 10-year bond yields were sitting at around 5.36%, which hasn’t helped high-growth tech stocks either.

The question now is, are Xero shares still a buy? Or will any investment made today turn into a loss by October 2027?

What’s ahead for Xero?

The company has sticky subscription revenue, and I see huge potential for growth both into new markets and with new offerings.

It looks like the experts are also bullish on Xero shares.

Market Index data shows that most brokers rate the shares a buy. The $112 average target price implies that the shares could jump another 95%, at the time of writing.

Sentiment is also very positive on TradingView. Out of seven analysts, six have a buy/strong buy rating and one rates the shares as a hold. However, they all agree there will be upside ahead.

The average $113.31 target price implies a potential 97% upside, while the maximum $144.36 implies Xero’s shares could rise by another 151% at the time of writing.

If I buy $5,000 of Xero shares today, what could they be worth in 12 months time?

Assuming Xero shares reach the average forecasted target prices of $112 or $113.31, a $5,000 investment today could be worth around $9,750 or $9,850 by October 2027.

However, if the more bullish expert forecasts come to fruition, a $5,000 investment today could grow to $12,550 by this time next year.

The post By October 2027, $5,000 invested in Xero shares could turn into… appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The team at Morgans has been busy running the rule over a number of ASX shares this week.

But does the broker rate them as buys? Let’s see what it is recommending:

Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL)

Morgans has made minor revisions to its estimates ahead of this gaming technology company’s results next month.

However, it remains very positive and has retained its accumulate rating on Aristocrat Leisure’s shares with a slightly trimmed price target of $69.00. This implies potential upside of approximately 17% for investors. It said:

With G2E in Las Vegas this week, and ahead of its FY26 result on 12 November, we have made minor revisions to our earnings forecasts. We lower our FY26-27 fee per day and North American outright unit forecasts and our FY26 Product Madness bookings. We also lift our AUD/USD assumption and increase our buy-back assumptions. 

Our NPATA forecasts fall by c.1% across FY26-27F. EPSA is broadly unchanged in FY26 and up c.1% in FY27, reflecting higher buy-backs. Our 12-month target price decreases to A$69.00 (prev. A$70.00). We maintain our Accumulate recommendation.

Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR)

Another ASX share that Morgans has been looking at is lithium miner Liontown.

In response to its production expansion announcement, the broker has retained its accumulate rating with a $1.10 price target. This suggests that upside of almost 40% is possible for investors. It commented:

LTR has approved the A$389m Kathleen Valley Expansion, targeting ~780ktpa of spodumene concentrate from FY30, with steady-state production in line with our expectations but unit costs above MorgansF and consensus. 

Our target price falls to A$1.10ps (from A$1.40ps) on a slower FY28-FY29 ramp-up and higher near-term capex and costs, with falling lithium prices and execution now the key risks. We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating with a A$1.10ps target price.

Navigator Global Investments Ltd (ASX: NGI)

This global investment company’s shares could be worth considering according to Morgans.

In response to news that Navigator Global is selling its stake in Invictus Capital Partners, the broker has retained its buy rating with a $3.04 price target. This implies potential upside of 27% for investors from current levels. It said:

NGI has agreed to sell its stake (21%) in Invictus Capital Partners to New York Life Investment Management (NYLIM). The sale will take place in several stages. The sale crystallises a premium of up to ~8% to cost on the initial 12.7% stake, while NGI keeps its carry and future upside through a residual 8.3% stake. Management expects the retained stake could be worth meaningfully more, on a pro-rata basis, when it is transferred in 2031, helped by the NYLIM partnership. 

In our view, the sale shows the optionality and embedded value in NGI’s portfolio. We have left our earnings forecasts unchanged for now and will wait for more detail from NGI at its February result. That timing matches the expected transaction completion in the first quarter of 2027. We see long-term value in the NGI story and maintain our BUY recommendation and target price of A$3.04.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Aristocrat, Liontown, and Navigator Global shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you are searching for big returns, then it could be worth hearing what Bell Potter is saying about the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) share in this article.

That’s because the broker believes it could deliver a total return of around 50% over the next 12 months.

Which ASX 200 share?

The share that Bell Potter is recommending to clients is Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL).

It is an investment platform provider used by over 4,000 financial advisers and with over $135 billion in funds under administration (FUA).

Bell Potter has updated its forecasts to reflect weaker equity markets. It said:

We update our model to reflect equity market movements and comment on net flow expectations. Consensus forecasts appear too high, implying the upper end of the $18-20bn guided range is achieved over the last 6 weeks of 1Q. This compares to $14bn run rate over the first 7 weeks. Equity markets have also weakened since the trading update, with September the second worst performing month this year behind March.The local share market declined by -4%. We make no EPS changes, having already factored in the negative mark-to-market impact of the drawdown.

The broker also highlights that it thinks consensus estimates for net inflows is too high and is forecasting inflows of $3.2 billion for the first quarter. It adds:

Guidance stands between $18-20bn. This is subject to sentiment and the economic and regulatory environment. Our 1Q net inflow forecast is $3.2bn vs. $3.5bn consensus. NWL reported $1.4bn of net inflows between 30 June and 21 August with a one-off institutional outflow worth $0.6bn. That equates to a $1.2bn monthly run rate. Our estimate assumes a $1.4bn exit rate vs. $1.7bn consensus. Flows have been running around that range already before MS Wealth contribution.

However, despite this, the broker remains very positive on the ASX 200 share and sees recent share price weakness as a buying opportunity.

Big potential returns

According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating on the ASX 200 share with a trimmed price target of $25.00 (from $30.00).

Based on the current Netwealth share price of $16.69, this implies potential upside of 50% for investors between now and this time next year.

In addition, the broker is forecasting a fully franked 3.1% dividend yield in FY 2027 (and 3.6% in FY 2028 and 4.1% in FY 2029), which boosts the total 12-month return to over 50%.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:

Maintain Buy. Given interest rates, we have moved our valuation multiple to 2022-23 levels with a class action provision. Our flow expectations are below FY27 guidance. NWL has operated in similar environments, with large withdrawals and clients moving off platform. FY23 flows landed -10% below the guidance and growth was restored in 12mths. Our $17.9bn matches this experience. So far, we are 6mths into the cycle.

The post This ASX 200 share is tipped to return over 50% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• 3 ASX shares down 40% to 80% I’d buy on the cheap

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.