It hasn’t been a great year for The Lottery Corp Ltd (ASX: TLC) shareholders.

Its shares finished Monday down 0.62% at $4.78, leaving them just above their 52-week low of $4.75.

The stock has now fallen around 18% over the past 12 months and is down more than 7% in 2026.

Yes, that might have some investors wondering whether the recent weakness has created a buying opportunity.

After all, the company owns some of Australia’s best-known lottery brands and currently offers a fully franked dividend yield of around 3.5%.

But despite the lower share price, I won’t be buying.

Here’s why.

Higher rates are a concern

My biggest concern is what happens to consumer spending over the next 12 months.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already lifted interest rates 3 times this year, taking the cash rate to 4.35%.

And another increase looks likely today, with all 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting a 25-basis-point hike to 4.60%.

That’s not great news for households already dealing with higher mortgage repayments and rising living costs.

And this is where I see a potential problem for the company.

Lottery tickets are ultimately a discretionary purchase.

If households have less money after paying their mortgage and other bills, I think spending on lottery tickets could come under pressure.

With rates potentially staying higher into 2027, that’s a risk I’m not willing to ignore.

FY26 wasn’t exactly exciting

The company’s latest results haven’t given me much reason to rush in either.

FY26 revenue fell 2.7% to $3.58 billion, while underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) dropped 6.3% to $342.5 million.

Statutory net profit fell even further, declining 22.1% to $284.6 million.

To be fair, weak jackpot activity played a big part in the softer result.

There were no $100 million Powerball jackpots during the year, compared with 4 in FY25, while Oz Lotto had no $50 million jackpots.

Base games performed better, with turnover increasing 5.6%, while Keno revenue climbed 3% to $364.3 million.

But looking ahead, there are still a few things that concern me.

Lottery Corp expects operating expenses of between $305 million and $315 million in FY27, up from $296 million last year.

It also has a $1.145 billion payment coming up for its new Victorian lottery licence, which could put further pressure on the balance sheet.

None of this is enough to get me excited about buying the shares just yet.

Would I buy?

At $4.78, Lottery Corp shares are certainly more attractive than they were a year ago.

And there are still plenty of things to like about the business.

It owns some of Australia’s biggest lottery brands, generates strong cash flow, and maintained its fully franked 16.5-cent annual dividend.

But I don’t think the current economic environment is particularly favourable.

With earnings already moving backwards and household spending facing more pressure, I think there are better opportunities elsewhere.

For me, this is one ASX dividend share I’d stay away from for now.

The post This ASX dividend share is near a 52-week low. Would I buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended The Lottery Corporation. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended The Lottery Corporation. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares tumbled lower in September.

The mining giant’s shares are $59.80 at the time of writing. That’s around an 11% decline over the past month, but it is still roughly 31% higher year-to-date.

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down around 5% over the past month and 1% higher year-to-date, at the time of writing.

What happened to BHP shares in September?

BHP was pushed into the spotlight in early September after news that China’s biggest steelmaker, China Baowu Steel Group, is reportedly considering buying into one of BHP’s largest iron ore mines. 

Australia’s Federal opposition has already objected. The Coalition has said that Labor must not allow foreign entities to buy one of Western Australia’s top iron ore mines.

Just last week, mining activities at BHP’s Escondida copper mine in Chile were suspended after a fatal accident. There is no indication when production might resume. 

Under Chilean mining regulations, operations cannot restart following a fatal accident until safety inspectors have confirmed that conditions are safe. 

The halt raised concerns about the miner’s output, and also raised safety concerns, which has contributed to the latest share price slide.

And all this has happened amid a broad market downturn, driven by rising oil prices and interest rate concerns, which have also dampened investor sentiment. 

So, what’s ahead for BHP shares in October? 

Is the ASX mining stock primed for a rebound? Or are there more headwinds coming?

Here’s what the experts think.

Broker forecasts for BHP shares

It looks like the experts are reserved about the outlook for the miner’s shares over the next 12 months.

Market Index data shows that most analysts rate BHP shares as a hold. The $61 average target price suggests a hold rating for BHP shares, with about 2% upside at the time of writing.

TradingView data shows something similar. Again, the majority have a hold rating on the shares. The average target price is a little higher, at $62.13 a piece, which implies a potential 4% upside at the time of writing.

Morgan Stanley has a buy rating and a $68 target price on BHP shares.

Red Leaf Securities has a hold rating on the mining shares. The broker warns that a softer global growth outlook and uncertainty surrounding Chinese commodity demand limits the case for aggressively buying the stock right now.

Dylan Evans from Catapult Wealth also has a hold rating on the shares. He said that the miner’s full-year results were impressive. But added that future earnings will be influenced by the copper price.

The post Should I buy BHP shares in October? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The notion of the ASX’s perfect dividend stock is obviously subjective and a little unrealistic. No ASX stock can be absolutely perfect, offer guaranteed returns, or carry no risk.

However, I think that possessing the ASX’s best streak of dividend growth, boasting a track record of market-crushing gains, and offering a diversified portfolio of high-quality underlying investments gets a stock pretty close.

That’s exactly what Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co Ltd (ASX: SOL) has on the table today.

Soul Patts is a company I have owned for many years, and have written about (in gushing terms) before. My enthusiasm for this top ASX dividend stock has not waned, particularly in light of its latest earnings report.

Last week, Soul Patts dropped its full-year earnings for FY2026, and they were very pleasant indeed to go through. The company reported a 96% spike in revenues from continuing operations to $1.87 billion, as well as a 12% hike in net cash flow from investments to $572 million. Much of that can be attributed to Soul Patts’ recent takeover of Brickworks. But even so, it was an impressive report.

Another record tumbles for this ASX dividend stock

Saving the best until last, the star metric was the final dividend of 63 cents per share. Yes, this represented a 6.8% rise over 2025’s final dividend, and made sure that the company’s 2026 dividend total would come in at a record $1.11 per share (up 7.8% on 2025’s total). Like all Soul Patts dividends, these came with full franking credits attached.

All hearty numbers, but not exactly an ASX record. But what makes this very special, and a record to boot, is the fact that 2026 marks Soul Patts’ 27th annual dividend hike in a row.

Yep, this company has now delivered an annual dividend pay rise to shareholders every single year since 1998 – a record unmatched by any other ASX dividend stock.

Additionally, Soul Patts also confirmed in those earnings that its shareholders enjoyed a total return of 16.8% over the 12 months to 31 July 2026, easily beating the broader S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) by 6%. Over the 25 years to 31 July, shareholders have bagged an average of 12.8% per annum, again well above the 8.4% that the broader market delivered.

No ASX dividend stock is perfect. But adding all of this up for Soul Patts, I think this company is about as close as we can get.

The post Is this the ASX’s perfect dividend stock? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.