Tabcorp vs The Lottery Corporation shares: Which is the better buy this week?

Choosing between Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (ASX: TAH) and Lottery Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLC) feels like picking a ticket in two different draws. Both companies should be pretty familiar to Aussie investors, especially after the 2022 demerger that left them operating in distinct (yet related) corners of the gaming and wagering industry. If you’re weighing up Tabcorp vs The Lottery Corporation shares this week, here’s a closer look at the core points of difference.

The case for Tabcorp

Tabcorp is one of Australia’s best-known gambling companies, now focusing on wagering and gaming services after spinning off its lotteries and keno business in 2022. Its well-known TAB brand offers betting both online and in a broad network of retail venues outside Western Australia, covering more than 90% of the population according to its most recent public description. Tabcorp also provides gaming solutions to clubs and pubs through its MAX business, and remains a major racing broadcaster with Sky Racing and Sky Sports Radio.

Looking at the numbers:

• Tabcorp’s market cap stands at $2.09 billion, making it significantly smaller than its old lottery sibling.
• The current P/E ratio is elevated at 45.05, indicating investors are paying a hefty price for current earnings compared to profits.
• The dividend yield is 3.30%, but notably, its most recent dividends have been unfranked, a big shift from its fully franked payouts prior to the demerger.

Looking through Tabcorp’s dividend history, you’ll see a marked reduction in dividend size (now just 3 cents per share over the last year, with recent payments unfranked) since lotteries and keno departed, and a share price that’s lost about 5.1% year to date.

The case for Lottery Corporation

The Lottery Corporation is Australia’s largest and most established lotteries and keno business. If you’ve ever bought a Powerball or Oz Lotto ticket, you’ve experienced its reach. The Lott holds long-term or exclusive lottery licenses in every state and territory except WA and boasts an enormous distribution network — more than 3,800 retailers plus online, as per its company profile. Its keno games are available in over 3,400 venues. Its brands permeate Aussie culture, and it’s tough to walk into a newsagent and not see their logo.

Fundamentally, the post-demerger Lottery Corporation is showing strong profit metrics:

• Market cap is $10.71 billion — five times larger than Tabcorp in today’s figures.
• P/E ratio is 37.58, not exactly low, but lower than Tabcorp’s, reflecting the lottery business’s healthy margins and consistent demand.
• It’s offering a 3.43% dividend yield, with all recent dividends fully franked — a clear tick for income seekers, especially compared to Tabcorp’s recent unfranked payments.

The Lottery Corporation’s year to date return is -3.6%, a bit better than Tabcorp’s, and it has steadily paid fully franked dividends, including a special dividend after the demerger.

Valuation comparison

Here’s how both companies stack up on the numbers that actually matter:

	Tabcorp	The Lottery Corporation
Market Cap	$2.09 billion	$10.71 billion
P/E Ratio	45.05	37.58
Earnings per Share	$0.020	$0.128
Dividend Yield	3.30%	3.43%
Dividend Franking	0% (recently)	100%
Dividend per Share	$0.03	$0.17
YTD Return	-5.1%	-3.6%

Note: Tabcorp’s reported P/E ratio may be based on a different earnings measure (e.g. underlying or forward earnings) than the EPS figure shown, which is why they may appear inconsistent.

The big standout here is the greater yield and full franking at The Lottery Corporation — a meaningful difference for Aussie income investors. Tabcorp’s much higher P/E and lower earnings per share suggest less bang for your buck on recent earnings, at least for now.

Recent share price performance

Comparing recent momentum up to 25 September 2026:

• Tabcorp closed at $0.91 on 25 Sept 2026, down 1.1% that day and showing a year to date return of -5.1%.
• The Lottery Corporation finished at $4.81, also down on the day by 1.6%, but its year to date return is a slightly smaller -3.6%.
• Both stocks have faded in 2026 so far, but The Lottery Corporation has been less volatile, with tighter daily moves on average.

Which is the better buy?

If I could only choose one this week, my pick would be The Lottery Corporation. Here’s why: it trumps Tabcorp on profitability, pays out a higher and fully franked dividend, and has a much bigger (and arguably more defensive) business model thanks to its exclusive lottery licences and huge retail reach. While both shares have dipped this year, The Lottery Corporation is holding up a little better, and its lower P/E ratio means you’re paying less for each dollar of earnings despite the higher quality and predictability of those earnings.

Tabcorp’s business, now leaner post-demerger, seems to be offering smaller, unfranked dividends and isn’t showing clear earnings momentum — while still being more “expensive” on a P/E basis. Absent any strong short-term catalyst or evidence of a turnaround, I find The Lottery Corporation a much more compelling option for both stability and income, even if it’s not exactly cheap.

The post Tabcorp vs The Lottery Corporation: Which ASX gaming share comes out on top? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended The Lottery Corporation. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended The Lottery Corporation. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial draft. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares have already recovered strongly from their lows, but they remain well below $250.

At around $182.00 today, the healthcare giant would need to rise approximately 37% to get there.

So what would need to happen for CSL shares to return to $250?

The earnings outlook is positive

I think earnings growth can provide part of the answer.

Consensus forecasts point to earnings per share (EPS) of $8.99 in FY27, $9.48 in FY28, and $10.08 in FY29.

That is not explosive growth, but it would represent steady progress over the next few years.

At the current share price, CSL trades on a PE ratio of roughly 20 times forecast FY27 earnings.

That multiple falls to around 19 times FY28 earnings and just over 18 times the FY29 estimate.

For me, that leaves room for the share price to climb if CSL delivers on those forecasts.

What would CSL be worth at $250?

At $250, the shares would trade at almost 28 times forecast FY27 earnings.

That would be a significant premium to today’s valuation and would require investors to become much more confident about the outlook.

But the hurdle falls as earnings grow.

Against FY28 EPS of $9.48, a $250 share price would represent around 26 times earnings. Using the FY29 forecast of $10.08, the multiple falls to just under 25 times.

That looks more achievable to me.

CSL would still need a re-rating from today’s valuation, but the company would also have higher earnings supporting that share price.

What would need to go right?

For me, the first requirement would be a continued recovery in CSL’s underlying performance.

Demand for immunoglobulins remains central to the CSL Behring story. If that demand stays strong and CSL can continue increasing the amount of plasma available to meet it, there should be room for revenue and earnings to keep growing.

The economics of collecting that plasma are also important.

I would want to see continued improvements in collection efficiency and plasma yields, because producing more finished product from the collection network can help margins as well as volumes.

That could be particularly important for rebuilding profitability in CSL Behring after the pressure seen over recent years.

Product development could provide another leg of growth.

CSL has a substantial research and development pipeline, and successful new products or expanded uses for existing therapies could create additional earnings streams beyond the company’s established franchises.

If the company can combine strong immunoglobulin demand, better plasma economics, margin improvement, and contributions from newer products, the current consensus earnings trajectory starts to look much more achievable.

And if investors become convinced that the recovery is sustainable, I think they could become willing to pay a higher multiple for those earnings again.

Foolish takeaway

I think $250 is achievable for CSL shares, but it will need more than time.

The company needs to keep growing immunoglobulin volumes, improve plasma collection economics, rebuild margins, and make progress with newer products.

If that translates into EPS of around $10 by FY29, a $250 share price would imply a PE ratio of roughly 25 times.

I think that is possible if CSL can restore confidence in its growth story.

The post What would it take for CSL shares to return to $250? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX All Ords Index (ASX: XAO) shares are down 3% over 12 months.

On The Bull this week, Mark Gardner from MPC Markets shares his insights on three stocks.

Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP)

The Greatland Resources share price is up 40% over 12 months. 

Gardner has a buy call on this ASX gold mining share. 

He said: 

Greatland is moving into mid-tier gold and copper production.

GGP produced 328,987 ounces of gold and 14,594 tonnes of copper in full year 2026. The company beat production and cost guidance.

Net profit after tax of $862 million was up 156 per cent on the prior corresponding period.

The shares have fallen on weaker production guidance in full year 2027.

GGP offers an appealing entry price. In our view, the market is too focused on a weaker guidance rather than funded growth.

Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX)

The Telix Pharmaceuticals share price is up 7% over 12 months. 

Gardner has a hold rating on this ASX healthcare share. 

He explained: 

The US Food and Drug Administration recently approved the company’s brain cancer imaging drug Pixclara.

TLX shares soared on the news, but we believe the approval is largely priced in at this point.

However, the underlying business is in good shape. Group revenue of $US477 million in the first half of 2026 was up 22 per cent on the prior corresponding period.

The group gross margin of 55 per cent was up 2 per cent year-on year. The company maintained a cash balance of $US252 million at June 30, 2026.

Qualitas Ltd (ASX: QAL)

The Qualitas share price is down 34% over 12 months. 

Gardner has a sell recommendation on this ASX financial share. 

He commented:

Qualitas is an alternative real estate investment manager with about $11.6 billion of committed funds under management at June 30, 2026.

QAL manages investments across real estate private credit and real estate private equity via a range of investment solutions for institutional, wholesale and retail clients.

The company has exposure to construction lending in a sector we believe is under pressure from rising costs amid potentially higher interest rates.

The shares have fallen from $3.36 on August 13 to trade at $2.38 on September 24.

We would rather be on the sidelines until credit costs stop rising.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Telix Pharmaceuticals, Qualitas, Greatland Resources shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Qualitas and Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.