If you are searching for big returns, then it could be worth hearing what Bell Potter is saying about the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) share in this article.

That’s because the broker believes it could deliver a total return of around 50% over the next 12 months.

Which ASX 200 share?

The share that Bell Potter is recommending to clients is Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL).

It is an investment platform provider used by over 4,000 financial advisers and with over $135 billion in funds under administration (FUA).

Bell Potter has updated its forecasts to reflect weaker equity markets. It said:

We update our model to reflect equity market movements and comment on net flow expectations. Consensus forecasts appear too high, implying the upper end of the $18-20bn guided range is achieved over the last 6 weeks of 1Q. This compares to $14bn run rate over the first 7 weeks. Equity markets have also weakened since the trading update, with September the second worst performing month this year behind March.The local share market declined by -4%. We make no EPS changes, having already factored in the negative mark-to-market impact of the drawdown.

The broker also highlights that it thinks consensus estimates for net inflows is too high and is forecasting inflows of $3.2 billion for the first quarter. It adds:

Guidance stands between $18-20bn. This is subject to sentiment and the economic and regulatory environment. Our 1Q net inflow forecast is $3.2bn vs. $3.5bn consensus. NWL reported $1.4bn of net inflows between 30 June and 21 August with a one-off institutional outflow worth $0.6bn. That equates to a $1.2bn monthly run rate. Our estimate assumes a $1.4bn exit rate vs. $1.7bn consensus. Flows have been running around that range already before MS Wealth contribution.

However, despite this, the broker remains very positive on the ASX 200 share and sees recent share price weakness as a buying opportunity.

Big potential returns

According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating on the ASX 200 share with a trimmed price target of $25.00 (from $30.00).

Based on the current Netwealth share price of $16.69, this implies potential upside of 50% for investors between now and this time next year.

In addition, the broker is forecasting a fully franked 3.1% dividend yield in FY 2027 (and 3.6% in FY 2028 and 4.1% in FY 2029), which boosts the total 12-month return to over 50%.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:

Maintain Buy. Given interest rates, we have moved our valuation multiple to 2022-23 levels with a class action provision. Our flow expectations are below FY27 guidance. NWL has operated in similar environments, with large withdrawals and clients moving off platform. FY23 flows landed -10% below the guidance and growth was restored in 12mths. Our $17.9bn matches this experience. So far, we are 6mths into the cycle.

The post This ASX 200 share is tipped to return over 50% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• 2 ASX shares highly recommended to buy: Experts
• Why are Netwealth shares crashing 6% on Friday?
• Netwealth faces class action after compensation payments
• 3 ASX shares down 40% to 80% I’d buy on the cheap

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Stockland vs Vicinity Centres shares: Which ASX REIT comes out on top?

Many Aussie investors turn to A-REITs for solid income, dependable assets, and a defensive edge in uncertain times. If you’re tossing up between Stockland Corporation Ltd (ASX: SGP) and Vicinity Centres (ASX: VCX) shares, you’re comparing two giants of the local real estate investment trust landscape. Both offer exposure to property, but take different approaches. Let’s dig in and see which one might suit your portfolio best.

The case for Stockland

Stockland is one of Australia’s most diversified property names. Its main play is residential land and housing development, making it the country’s biggest in this space. According to its company profile, about a third of its funds come from this sometimes volatile segment, but the lion’s share flows in from commercial properties—predominantly retail, with a growing push into office and logistics assets. Stockland is reshaping its portfolio, trimming traditional retail and adding new growth opportunities like industrial properties.

Looking at the fundamentals:

• Market cap: $10.02 billion
• P/E ratio: 9.98
• Dividend yield: 6.16%

Earnings per share sits at $0.410, and the 2026 year-to-date return is a rough -25.8%. Of note, Stockland’s dividends remain unfranked and have fluctuated over the years, but the recent dividend per share is $0.25. What stands out for income seekers is that healthy yield, though the share price has seen some serious headwinds lately.

The case for Vicinity Centres

Vicinity Centres is an Australian REIT laser-focused on retail, being the country’s second-largest retail property manager by owned assets. Emerging from the merger of Federation Centres and Novion, Vicinity operates and manages a portfolio of about 50 shopping centres, including some prominent malls. Beyond retail, Vicinity is adding value by developing mixed-use spaces that bring together shopping, workspaces, and residential elements.

A glance at Vicinity’s key numbers:

• Market cap: $10.67 billion
• P/E ratio: 7.53
• Dividend yield: 5.46%

Its earnings per share comes in at $0.301, and its year-to-date return for 2026 is -6.5%. Dividends (also unfranked) have been consistent, with the most recent payout sitting at $0.12 per share. For those seeking retail exposure and a stable yield, Vicinity offers a pure-play approach.

Valuation comparison

Here’s a head-to-head look at some key valuation metrics:

Metric	Stockland	Vicinity Centres
Market cap	$10.02bn	$10.67bn
P/E ratio	9.98	7.53
Dividend yield	6.16%	5.46%
Earnings per share	$0.410	$0.301
Dividend per share	$0.25	$0.12
Year-to-date return	-25.79%	-6.48%

Note: Stockland’s P/E and EPS are arithmetically consistent; the same applies for Vicinity Centres, so these numbers align as expected. Franking is 0% for both—there’s no franking edge here.

Recent share price performance

Comparing recent share price action up to 25 September:

• As of 25 Sep 2026, Stockland closed at $4.02, down 1.95% for the day, continuing a steep decline YTD (-25.8%).
• On the same day, Vicinity Centres closed at $2.27, down 0.44%, with a YTD return of -6.5%.
• Vicinity has shown greater resilience over 2026, while Stockland has experienced heavier selling pressure.

Which is the better buy?

For me, Vicinity Centres stands out as the steadier option right now. The retail focus gives it a degree of predictability, and its recent share price performance has been much less volatile than Stockland. While Stockland offers a slightly higher dividend yield, the sharp -25.8% YTD share price decline suggests deeper market concerns—perhaps about its exposure to residential cycles or business mix changes. Vicinity’s P/E is a fair bit lower than Stockland’s, pointing to a less demanding valuation, especially for a business with more stable income and property assets.

Stockland’s diversified approach and higher yield might appeal to bolder investors prepared to ride out the volatility for long-term gains, but I’d lean toward Vicinity Centres for its greater consistency, resilience, and competitive yield at a lower earnings multiple. If I had to pick one ASX REIT for my own watchlist, it would be Vicinity—at least based on the numbers in front of me.

The post Stockland vs Vicinity Centres: Which ASX REIT is the better buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 6 ASX 200 shares scoring renewed buy calls this week
• Vicinity Centres: 2026 Capability Showcase highlights Chadstone and Chatswood Chase
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Stockland shares are sinking 4%. Is this $3.8 million CEO sale a warning sign?

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial draft. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

On Thursday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) had a day to forget and sank deep into the red. The benchmark index fell 2% to 8,614.4 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rebound

The Australian share market looks set for a better session on Friday following a positive night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 48 points or 0.55% higher this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.05%, the S&P 500 rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq edged 0.05% higher.

Oil prices charge higher

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)could have a strong finish to the week after oil prices charged higher overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 3% to US$93.13 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 4.6% to US$102.57 a barrel. This follows reports that the US has sent a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East.

Megaport shares given buy rating

The Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) share price could be heading even higher according to Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has initiated coverage on the cloud infrastructure provider’s shares with a buy rating and $27.00 price target. It commented: “We initiate coverage of Megaport with a BUY recommendation and $27.00 target price. […] In our view Megaport looks value trading on an FY28 EV/EBITDA multiple of c.7x when the median multiple of the domestic comps is c.15x (based on FY28 forecasts) and international comps is c.11x (based on 2027 forecasts).”

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a good finish to the week after the gold price rose overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.5% to US$4,207.6 an ounce. Easing US Treasury yields gave the precious metal a boost.

Buy Netwealth shares

It could be a good time to buy Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) shares according to Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on the investment platform provider’s shares with a trimmed price target of $25.00 (from $30.00). It said: “Given interest rates,we have moved our valuation multiple to 2022-23 levels with a class action provision. Our flow expectations are below FY27 guidance. NWL has operated in similar environments, with large withdrawals and clients moving off platform.FY23 flows landed -10% below the guidance and growth was restored in 12mths. Our $17.9bn matches this experience. So far, we are 6mths into the cycle.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Bell Potter just put a buy rating on Megaport shares with 33% upside
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why is the ASX down 176 points today?
• Which were the best-performing ASX 200 shares in September?
• How high does Macquarie think Megaport shares will go?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Megaport and Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Megaport and Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.