Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) shares are down around 6% in Thursday lunchtime trade, to $13.04 a piece.

Today’s slump means the shares have now fallen 16% over the past month, but they’re still around 7% higher for the year-to-date.

It’s been a rocky start to the year for the ASX rare earths miner. Geopolitical volatility, higher costs, and investors taking their gains off the table after a strong rally earlier this year have all acted as strong headwinds for the Lynas Rare Earths share price.

The miner’s FY26 results announcement in late-August hasn’t helped sentiment either. 

The company posted a record FY26 profit and revenue, as company growth continues to ramp up. It reported a 76% increase in revenue and a 282% increase in EBITDA. Lynas Rare Earths also confirmed it is focused on ramping up new assets in FY27 and growing its global presence.

But the miner’s $222.4 million net profit was a miss versus analysts expectations of around $242.5 million. And it raised red flags about costs going forward.

Why are the shares falling again today?

Ahead of the ASX open this morning, Lynas Rare Earths announced plans to acquire all shares in Meteoric Resources Ltd (ASX: MEI) via an all-scrip deal, valued at approximately A$968 million.

Meteoric shareholders will receive 0.0207 new Lynas shares per Meteoric share held, while Lynas Rare Earths boosts its resource base, including the largest ionic clay rare earth resource outside China.

As part of the announcement, the company also flagged that it is moving forward with plans to diversify its resource base, expanding its global footprint and enhancing supply of critical minerals at a time of robust demand. 

The company said that investors should watch for further announcements as the deal moves through regulatory and shareholder processes into early 2027.

Again, it looks like investors are spooked about the execution risk surrounding the deal, and many are offloading their shares.

Are Lynas Rare Earths a buy, sell or hold now?

It looks like analysts are more excited by the ASX mining company’s potential than the company’s shareholders.

Market Index data show they expect Lynas’ shares to jump again this year. The majority of brokers have a strong buy rating on the miner’s shares, and the $19.56 average target price implies a potential 50% upside, at the time of writing. 

Sentiment is similar on TradingView. The majority (11 out of 16) of analysts have a buy/strong buy rating on the shares. The $18.71 average target price implies an upside of around 44%. Whereas, the more bullish of the bunch think Lynas Rare Earths shares could climb 77% higher to $23 over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.

The post Why are Lynas Rare Earths shares crashing 6% today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Which junior ASX mining stock has surged 50% on big news?
• Lynas to acquire Meteoric Resources in major rare earths deal
• Lynas Rare Earths vs Mineral Resources: Which ASX mining stock shines?
• Buy, hold, sell: BOQ, Harvey Norman, Lynas shares
• Brokers tip these 3 ASX shares to climb between 50% and 122% in the next 12 months

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

RBC Capital Markets has just started covering Chrysos Corporation Ltd (ASX: C79), and its analysts believe the innovative gold assay technology company is undervalued.

The broker has issued a new research note on Chrysos, with a bullish share price target, which I’ll get to shortly.

First, let’s look into what they’re saying about the company.  

Innovative assay technology

Chrysos has developed a technique to analyse mining samples, which RBC says is displacing existing “centuries old” techniques because it is faster and cleaner, with similar pricing.

The company also has an innovative business model, leasing its machines to customers, which provides a recurring revenue stream.

RBC estimates that Chrysos has to date only penetrated about 10% of its total addressable market in the gold sector, providing it with a substantial growth pathway.

The broker said in its report:

Chrysos’s PhotonAssay technology is a demonstrably superior alternative to the centuries-old fire assay method that is non discretionary for every gold miner globally. The growth runway is long and visible, underpinned by an expanding contracted pipeline across 23 countries and endorsements from the world’s largest miners including Barrick, Newmont, and Gold Fields. The majority of the machines are with independent labs, including several of the world’s largest (ALS, Bureau Veritas, Intertek, MSALABS and SGS), with an increasing number deployed on-site at major mines.

Chrysos, RBC said, was charging its customers a minimum monthly amount, with volume-linked upside.

Each machine costs about $4m to produce and install, and generates about $2 million in annual revenue per year.

RBC said they estimated that over a 20 year life, each unit would produce $40 million in revenue.

The broker added that the company did not have any credible competition.

There are no known competing or copycat technologies in the market today. The most credible long-term threats would likely originate from large instrument manufacturers, Chinese state-linked science/industrial companies, or the incumbent lab giants themselves. That said, we believe Chrysos’s pace of deployment and deepening customer entrenchment make that window harder to exploit with each passing year. Other factors working in Chrysos’ favour are: actively defended patent portfolio; highly specialised components; four major global lab companies are already aligned with Chrysos; and development of next gen units and solution analysis extensions continue to widen the technology gap.

RBC said the company was fast-growing and highly-profitable, but free cash flow would remain negative for the next five years due to capital expenditure for new units.

Shares looking cheap

RBC has a price target of $9.25 on the company, which is 36% higher than the current level of $6.80.

Chrysos is valued at $776.3 million.

The post This ASX gold technology company could rise by more than a third, RBC Capital Markets says appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why are Lynas Rare Earths shares crashing 6% today?
• How much further will house prices fall, according to AMP’s chief economist?
• Which were the best-performing ASX 200 shares in September?
• Which junior ASX mining stock has surged 50% on big news?
• Should I buy WiseTech Global shares in October?

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Chrysos. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Chrysos. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Australian house prices have much further to fall, AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver argues, as a “perfect storm” of interest rate rises, tax hikes for investors and poor confidence hit the market.

House price falls just getting started

In a recently released report, Dr Oliver said that Cotality figures show national home prices fell 1.1% in September, bringing falls to date to slightly more than 5%.

But he warned much worse was to come.

Dr Oliver said:

Further falls are likely as home prices are being hit by a perfect storm of rate hikes, tax hikes on investors, poor confidence and poor affordability depressing demand with a high risk of distressed sales flowing from higher mortgage rates and unemployment. We now expect national average property prices to have a top to bottom fall in prices of 10-15%, of which they have done 5.2% so far. Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide are likely to see the deepest falls, whereas Melbourne is likely to have a shallower decline.

Dr Oliver predicted the market would bottom out around the June quarter next year, before a modest recovery in 2027-28 as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) moved to start cutting official interest rates.

He added that units and lower end property would likely not drop as steeply given they didn’t appreciate as much, and because they benefit from the expanded first home buyers 5% low deposit scheme.

Dr Oliver said the negative factors affecting the market were currently outweighing the upward pressure from a shortage of housing.

He added:

Were it not for three key supports the property market would be a lot weaker. These are: the accumulated housing shortfall of an estimated 200,000 to 300,000 dwellings; vendors not being in a rush to sell just yet aided by still low unemployment; and the expanded first home buyer 5% deposit scheme which is helping to support lower priced entry level houses and units. However, despite these supports, the Australian housing market is still likely to weaken significantly further as higher mortgage rates, the removal of most property tax concessions, record poor affordability and poor confidence continue to impact at a time of a rising risk of distressed selling.

Rate rises likely off the cards

Dr Oliver said he believed the RBA would not raise interest rates again, but, “we don’t see it cutting rates until the second half next year”.

He added that given there is still uncertainty about the full impact of the property tax changes on demand, “the risk remains on the downside”.

The post How much further will house prices fall, according to AMP’s chief economist? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Which were the best-performing ASX 200 shares in September?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why has the ASX 200 jumped to its highest level in 3 weeks?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.