There are a lot of ASX dividend shares for investors to choose from on the Australian share market.

To narrow things down, let’s take a look at one that could be among the best to buy as October approaches fast.

Which ASX dividend share?

The dividend share that could be a best buy is HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (ASX: HDN).

It is a REIT with a focus on large format retail, neighbourhood centres, and health and services.

The company counts Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL), Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), and Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) as tenants.

Upgraded

According to a note out of Bell Potter this morning, the broker has upgraded this ASX dividend share on the belief that it is significantly undervalued. It said:

As the dust settles from reporting season we revisit HDN, upgrading to a Buy recommendation on relative valuation, supported by earnings trajectory and nondiscretionary retail fundamentals. 

Valuation is oversold – HDN trades -2 std deviations below its 5-year average discount to NTA (-31.4% vs -13%) and at 12.0x P/E, a discount to the passive REIT peer average of 14.1x. The stock has fallen -13.3% since results and underperformed peers (HDN -19.1% vs XPJ -14.9%) over 3 months, a reaction we view as disproportionate to the underlying -2.2% FY27 earnings decline. Indeed, historically +2 or -2 standard deviations has been a strong indicator for externally managed REITs mean reversion and outperformance.

Bell Potter thinks now could be a good time to buy given its forecast for earnings to bottom in FY 2027. It adds:

We expect earnings to trough in FY27, with growth returning in FY28 (+2.5%) as the incremental mark-to-mkt of debt costs lessens, asset are divested accretively, and developments complete at >7% target ROIC.

It also believes longer term retail undersupply is supportive. Bell Potter said:

Retail supply completions have run well below trend (90k sqm p.a. average FY22-25 vs a 158k sqm 10-year average), driving vacancy down and rental growth up across the neighbourhood/ LFR formats HDN is exposed to, supporting ~+6% re-leasing spreads and further cap rate compression through 2029.

Big returns

The note reveals that Bell Potter has upgraded the ASX dividend share to a buy rating (from hold) with a trimmed price target of $1.20 (from $1.25).

Based on its current share price of $1.05, this implies potential upside of 14.3% for investors over the next 12 months.

The broker is also expecting dividends of 8.6 cents per share in FY 2027 and FY 2028, before an increase to 8.8 cents per share in FY 2029.  This represents dividend yields of 8.2%, 8.2%, and 8.4%, respectively.

Commenting on its upgrade, Bell Potter said:

HDN has materially underperformed and screens as oversold, trading at an 8.1% div yield and 12.0x P/E (vs 6.9% & 14.1x passive REIT sector avg), despite FY27 marking the trough in earnings. We see growth returning in FY28 (+2.5%) with stable topline growth supported by favourable retail sector supply/demand dynamics. We upgrade HDN to a Buy recommendation following its recent underperformance (- 19.1% last 3 months vs XPJ -14.9%).

The post Is this the best ASX dividend share to buy in October? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended HomeCo Daily Needs REIT and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are down 2% over 12 months.

Yesterday, the ASX 200 dropped sharply after the Reserve Bank announced a widely anticipated 0.25% increase to the official cash rate.

Australia’s cash rate is now at a 15-year high of 4.6%.

Investors looking for opportunities in today’s weak market might like to heed the advice of experts.

Let’s check out some new ratings on three ASX 200 shares.

Premier Investments Ltd (ASX: PMV)

The Premier Investments share price is down 40% over 12 months. 

Bell Potter has a buy rating on this ASX 200 consumer discretionary share. 

Analyst Chami Ratnapala said: 

Premier Investment’s FY26 result was in line with expectations, with Premier Retail EBIT (Pre-AASB 16 ex-Peter Alexander UK and other non-recurring items) of ~$176m pre-reported in Aug.

The incremental update in the result was the early FY27 trading with global sales and gross profit $ (on a constant currency basis) for the first 7 weeks +1% on pcp.

While we expect a period of slow growth for PMV near to medium term, we view PMV’s forward multiple as attractive considering the Premier Retail division together with PMV’s equity investments, land bank and cash position while retaining a strong balance sheet supportive of M&A.

New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC)

The New Hope Corporation share price is up 42% over 12 months. 

Michael Gable from Fairmont Equities has a hold rating on this ASX 200 coal share.

On The Bull, Gable said: 

I remain bullish about this thermal coal producer, as the war in Iran is leading other countries to lift demand for thermal coal to offset instability in gas markets.

The company generated saleable coal production of 11.5 million tonnes in full year 2026, up 7.6 per cent on the prior corresponding period.

Production was above market expectations as was the final, fully franked dividend of 30 cents a share.

The share price uptrend since early July is sustainable, in my view.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

The Xero share price is down 63% over 12 months. 

Gable has a sell rating on this ASX 200 tech share, and explained:

In my view, potentially increasing bond yields and interest rates will continue to be a headwind for technology stocks, such as XRO.

Fiscal year 2026 operating revenue increased 31 per cent on the prior corresponding period. However, net profit after tax fell 27 per cent. The gross margin declined from 89 per cent to 83.9 per cent.

From a charting perspective, selling pressure follows share price rallies, so the downtrend may not yet be over at this point.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Premier Investments, New Hope, Xero shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Premier Investments. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Codan Ltd (ASX: CDA) shares have been on fire over the past 12 months.

Following a stunning 24% gain on Tuesday, the technology products company’s shares are now up almost 120% since this time last year.

Is it too late to invest? Let’s find out what Bell Potter is saying about this high-flying stock.

What is the broker saying?

Bell Potter notes that Codan released a trading update for the first half of FY 2027, which revealed an acceleration in the strong momentum seen with its results in August.

Commenting on the Communications segment, the broker said:

CDA now expects 1H27 revenue of $400-410m (BPe $289m, VAe $283m) with 50% of revenue expected to come from conflict regions (vs. 20% in pcp. Outside of conflict regions, CDA expects the Communication segment to deliver 1H27 revenue growth in the order of 20% vs. pcp with broad-based growth across regions and markets. 

Elevated demand is expected to drive substantial operating leverage, resulting in a 1H27 EBIT margin of 40% (2H26 34.3%). CDA has upgraded full year FY27 Communications revenue growth target range to 30-40% from 20%. BPe and Consensus are both in line with original target growth of 20%. CDA has not given full year EBIT margin guidance. 

The good news is the Metal Detection business is performing positively as well thanks to a strong gold price and new product launches. It adds:

Minelab 1H27 revenue run-rate is now slightly above 2H26 levels an improvement from August 20 where it was tracking in line. (BPe monthly run rate of $33m in 1H27 vs. $32m in 2H26). The strong momentum is driven by recently launched GPZ 8000 and Gold Monster 2000 detectors, a favourable gold price and the continued expansion of ROW.

Is it too late to buy Codan shares?

While the big returns may now be behind us, Bell Potter doesn’t believe it is too late to buy Codan shares.

This morning, the broker has responded to the update by retaining its buy rating on the company’s shares with an improved price target of $73.00 (from $60.00).

Based on its current share price of $64.43, this implies potential upside of 13.3% over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its bullish view of the stock, Bell Potter said:

We forecast 39% Comms revenue growth in FY27e, implying 5% YoY in 2H27, and see scope for further upgrades if CDA successfully mitigates supply chain pressures given surging production of Group 2 UAS. CDA trades on 32x EBIT. Retain Buy.

The post Up 120%, is it too late to buy Codan shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.