The Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) share price has had a terrible time over the past year, dropping by more than 60%, as the chart below shows.

The cloud accounting software provider has lost investor confidence, and its profitability isn’t growing as it used to.

Xero’s latest result was mixed.

Earnings recap

In the 2026 financial year result, meaning the 12 months to 31 March 2026, customers grew 11% to 4.9 million, operating revenue grew 31% to $2.75 billion, operating profit (EBITDA) grew 24% to $790 million, net profit after tax (NPAT) declined 27% to $167 million, and free cash flow rose just 9% to $554 million.

Xero said that Melio-related acquisition costs affected its profitability. While the market may not be totally convinced about Melio, it could be crucial to growth in the US.

Its international markets are growing strongly – that’s countries beyond Australia and New Zealand – international revenue grew 47% to $1.4 billion or 25% on an organic basis excluding Melio. US revenue grew 240%, or 30% on an organic basis excluding Melio. UK revenue grew 26%, with customer growth of 14%.

ANZ continues to see solid growth, with revenue rising 18% to $1.4 billion.

Xero is leaning on price rises to be a significant driver of its financials, which is helping drive a number of revenue metrics. Average revenue per customer grew by 23% to $55.44, annualised monthly recurring revenue (AMRR) soared 37% to $3.27 billion and the total lifetime value (LTV) of customers increased 17% to $21 billion.

The ASX tech share said that it expects operating revenue to be at least $3.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA to be at least $860 million, implying year-over-year growth of at least 30% and 13.6%, respectively.

Is the Xero share price a strong buy?

There are certainly plenty of concerns about what AI could mean for software players like Xero, but its financials continue to show progress, which will likely re-energise the market in the future, in my view.

According to CMC Invest, the business has received three analyst ratings in the past three months.

Of those three analysts, the average price target is $108.53, suggesting a rise of 89% over the next year. Even the most pessimistic of the three analysts has a price target of $85, suggesting a possible rise of 48% over the next year.

Clearly, analysts think the business is undervalued, and the multiple looks reasonable based on free cash flow. If its financials can excite the market again, it could be materially undervalued.

The post How much could the Xero share price rise in the next year? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It’s shaping up to be an interesting start to the week for Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shareholders.

The gold mining giant has had a difficult run lately, with its shares falling despite gold prices remaining relatively high.

And following reports over the weekend, investors have something else to consider when trading gets underway today.

Northern Star shares finished Friday’s session down 0.72% at $22.11, leaving the stock around 17% lower in 2026.

So, what’s happened?

Northern Star rejects takeover approach

According to The Australian, Northern Star has rejected a takeover approach from South African mining giant Gold Fields Ltd (JSE: GFI).

Gold Fields is reportedly considering its next move after Northern Star knocked back the proposal.

Northern Star has a market capitalisation of approximately $31.5 billion, making it one of Australia’s largest gold producers.

Gold Fields already has a significant presence in Western Australia, having acquired Gold Road Resources for roughly $3.7 billion last year.

That deal gave it full ownership of the Gruyere gold mine, which the two companies previously operated through a joint venture.

A takeover of Northern Star would add several major Australian gold mines to its portfolio, including the Super Pit in Kalgoorlie.

It would also create one of the world’s largest gold producers.

Elliott has been pushing for change

The reported takeover approach comes as Northern Star faces growing pressure from US activist investor Elliott Investment.

Elliott holds approximately 6.24% of Northern Star following a difficult period of operational setbacks and disappointing shareholder returns.

In June, the investor identified Gold Fields, AngloGold Ashanti, Agnico Eagle, and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) as potential strategic partners.

It has also been calling for changes to Northern Star’s board, and some of those changes are already underway.

Former Anglo American boss Mark Cutifani and mining executive Peter Rozenauers are set to join the board on 1 October.

Meanwhile, Suresh Vadnagra will take over as chief executive on 5 October, with chairman Michael Chaney stepping down in November.

Foolish takeaway

The big question now is whether Gold Fields returns with another approach or decides to walk away.

I think the reported takeover interest is positive news for shareholders, especially after the stock’s difficult run this year.

With new leadership coming in and several potential buyers already identified, I suspect this won’t be the last approach.

Northern Star shares have fallen 9% over the past month, so shareholders could certainly use some positive news.

I’ll be watching from the sidelines to see whether the takeover news helps the stock recover some of its recent losses.

The post Northern Star shares on watch after major takeover approach rejected appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Orica Ltd (ASX: ORI) share price is under the spotlight after the company announced it has secured ammonium nitrate supply for North American customers in FY2027, and provided an update on its surplus land sales in Australia.

What did Orica report?

• Sourced ammonium nitrate supply for North America covering FY2027 contracts
• Increased supply to come from US producers and the Carseland plant in Canada
• Acquisition of Nelson Brothers’ explosives business adds supply chain infrastructure
• Negotiations for Deer Park (Victoria) land sale delayed beyond FY2026
• No material margin impact expected in FY2027 despite higher sourcing costs

What else do investors need to know?

Orica reassured shareholders that the increased cost of sourcing ammonium nitrate for North America will be offset by optimised logistics, ongoing cost reduction initiatives, and favourable customer arrangements. The company’s global supply network, strengthened by the Nelson Brothers acquisition, is expected to support ongoing security and diversification of supply.

On the land sales front, Orica confirmed that the planned contract exchange for surplus Deer Park land will now happen after FY2026, following changes in market conditions. However, this has no impact on the company’s core business or current operations.

What did Orica management say?

Commenting on the update, Orica Managing Director and CEO Sanjeev Gandhi said:

This update highlights Orica’s ability to adapt its supply chain and strengthen the resilience and flexibility of our network while maintaining competitive economics. We will continue to further optimise our network to support the growth in this market. We have made significant progress on our strategic priorities. We completed the integration of Danafloat and the Nelson Brothers explosives business and continue to make strong progress in our organisation-wide cost reduction program. We will remain disciplined in our approach to land divestments to ensure optimal commercial outcomes for our shareholders. Together, these initiatives support Orica’s long-term growth objectives, while delivering sustainable value for shareholders and helping our customers operate more safely, productively and responsibly. The broader business continues to perform strongly, in line with our expectations and Orica continues to maintain a strong balance sheet and liquidity position. Further details, including an outlook for 2027, will be provided at Orica’s upcoming full year results announcement in November.

What’s next for Orica?

Orica says it will continue optimising and diversifying its North American supply chain and integrating recent acquisitions to support growth in the region. It is also committed to taking a disciplined approach to land divestments, seeking value for shareholders as market conditions evolve.

Full year financial results and a detailed outlook for FY2027 are expected to be presented in November, which should provide further clarity for investors.

Orica Limited share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Orica shares have risen 7%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has declined 2% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Orica updates on North American supply and land sales appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.