DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) shares just can’t seem to turn the tide.

The counter-drone technology stock closed Thursday down 3% at $1.62. This caps a 12% slide over the month and a brutal 52% collapse over the past year. That’s a fall from a 52-week high of $6.71 to a low of $1.57, carnage by any measure.

But buried beneath the wreckage is a potentially intriguing new chapter that has almost nothing to do with the company’s existing drone-jamming products. It’s called RfRecon, and it might just be the thing the market is overlooking.

First, the elephant in the room

DroneShield’s spectacular growth story has hit real turbulence. First-half revenue jumped 74% to $125.8 million, but underlying EBITDA swung to a $12.4 million loss, and gross margins weakened along the way.

Then came the bigger blow. CY26 revenue guidance of $250–270 million landed substantially below the roughly $323 million consensus investors in DroneShield shares had been banking on.

For a growth stock priced for perfection, that’s more than enough to trigger a serious valuation reset. And that’s precisely what happened.

Brokers are deeply split

The latest price targets tell you just how divisive DroneShield shares have become. Bell Potter has a buy rating with a $2.40 target, and Canaccord Genuity is similarly bullish at $2.60. This points to 61% upside at the time of writing.

On the other side, Jefferies has slapped on a sell rating with a $1.45 target, while Ord Minnett sits at sell with $1.50.

That’s an unusually wide spread for one stock. The answer to who’s right may hinge partly on what happens with RfRecon.

DroneShield’s potential secret weapon

RfRecon is designed to push DroneShield beyond simply detecting and defeating drones. Its RF intelligence technology aims to identify, locate and assess radio-frequency activity, powered by the company’s new RfAI-3 software architecture.

This is potentially opening doors for DroneShield shares into electronic warfare, military intelligence and force protection. DroneShield has already landed its first RfRecon order from an existing Western European military customer. The caveat: that initial order isn’t financially material. But the size of the first order might not be the point.

DroneShield says RfRecon has already been placed with selected European and US end users and deployed during a major international defence exercise, with management expecting sales to build through 2027.

If those trials convert into repeat procurement, the revenue opportunity could look dramatically different from today. RfRecon is targeting a potential global addressable market of US$1–3 billion a year over time.

The existing pipeline still matters

None of this happens in isolation from DroneShield’s core business. The company says it now has $251 million of committed CY26 revenue, plus another $46 million committed for FY27 and beyond.

Europe remains crucial, accounting for roughly 52% of first-half revenue, and DroneShield continues chasing major defence programmes, including a sizeable European opportunity tied to the COBBS/Anduril/Nokia consortium.

Investors, though, shouldn’t count potential contracts as revenue for DroneShield shares until ink actually hits paper.

The post DroneShield shares crashed 52%. This new weapon could flip the script appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Real estate investment trusts have had a curious year, broking house Morgans says, with occupancy rates strong but share prices on the wane.

In a recent research note to clients, Morgans said the A-REIT index had fallen 15.5% over 12 months despite occupancy being at or near full across the industrial and convenience retail sectors.

Morgans has put the cause down to the swing in the interest rate cycle, with three increases so far this calendar year.

Morgans said:

Weighted average cost of debt rose for most names and FY27 assumptions are higher again.

The broker has identified five companies they rate as buys in the sector. Let’s see who they like.

Qualitas Ltd (ASX: QAL)

This company is a real estate private credit manager, rather than a real estate investment trust, but Morgans believes they are looking cheap at the moment.

They said Qualitas is growing market share as the major banks retreat from the sector.

They added:

Fee-earning funds under management is growing strongly, with a high proportion of repeat borrowers underpinning deployment quality. Near-term re-rating is constrained by broader private credit sector sentiment, though we do not view QAL’s loan book as subject to the same uncertainties as others in the space.

Morgans has a $3.90 share price target on Qualitas.

DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (ASX: DGT)

This company owns the SYD1 data centre, which Morgans describes as “a scarce Tier 1 CBD carrier hotel with secured power in a power constrained market”.

The data centre has an expansion plan on the cards, with Morgans saying the roadmap to full occupancy is well defined.

Morgans said the stock is trading at a significant discount to its net asset value.

Morgans has a price target of $3.60 on DigiCo.

GPT Group Ltd (ASX: GPT)

This company is well diversified across office, retail, and industrial assets, Morgans said, “complemented by a growing funds management platform that the market continues to undervalue”.

They added:

GPT’s scale and liquidity make it one of the most accessible ways to gain exposure to Australian commercial property, and one of the names best positioned to re-rate as the interest rate outlook moderates.

Morgans has a price target of $5.65 on GPT.

HMC Capital Ltd (ASX: HMC)

This alternative asset manager has “a growing, diversified platform spanning energy transition, healthcare infrastructure and daily needs real estate”, Morgans said.

The company’s recurring revenue stream is growing, “with the business progressively transitioning toward a more predictable, fee-based earnings profile”.

Morgans has a price target of $4 on HMC.

Garda Property Group Ltd (ASX: GDF)

Morgans said Garda operates a two-pronged business, generating revenue from both its industrial property portfolio and its private credit lending book.

Morgans has a price target of $1.30 on Garda.

The post 5 buy-rated shares in the ASX real estate sector to consider appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Qualitas. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares closed 2% higher on Wednesday afternoon, at $9.14.

The increase marks the third consecutive share price increase in as many days, meaning the ASX airline shares have now rebounded 5% this week.

It’s great news for investors after the travel stock tumbled 19% between early August and mid-September. The shares are now down 13% for the year-to-date and 16% lower than 12 months ago.

What caused Qantas shares to fall in August?

Ahead of the company’s FY26 results announcement in late August, the market hesitated about what the company might post. Some investors began selling their shares, expecting the results to disappoint and the shares to fall again.

And they were right.

In late August, Qantas reported a 13.8% year-on-year decline in its underlying profit before tax, and revealed that its statutory profit had fallen around 29%.

For the 12-month period, Qantas reported a 12.7% year-on-year drop in underlying earnings per share to 96 cents. And elsewhere, its $6.2 billion of net debt came in at the middle of its target range of $5.5 billion to $6.9 billion for FY26.

With profits down, management declared a fully-franked final Qantas dividend of 19.8 cents per share and a total dividend of 39.6 cents per share, down 25% from last year’s final payout.

At the same time, renewed conflict in the Middle East and further oil supply constraints have put pressure back on fuel prices. This has put airlines like Qantas under significant pressure. 

As part of its results, Qantas reported that the impact from the Middle East conflict has cost the airline an estimated $420 million to date, largely driven by higher jet fuel costs.

So, why are the shares climbing higher again now?

There hasn’t been any price-sensitive news out of Qantas this week to explain the latest turnaround in investor interest.

It’s likely that this week’s reprieve in oil prices could be helping to boost the airline’s shares higher. Global travel sentiment is also surprisingly resilient.

Trading Economics shows that crude oil fell back below US$89 per barrel on Wednesday from a high of US$105 per barrel last week, driven by progress in the US-Iran peace agreement.

Is it time to snap up the shares before they climb even higher?

It looks like the experts are confident we’ll see some sort of turnaround story in Qantas shares over the next 12 months.

TradingView data shows that the majority (14 out of 16) have a buy/strong buy rating on the shares. Another two rate the stock as a hold. But they all forecast an upside from the current trading level.

The $11.70 average target price implies a potential 28% upside over the next 12 months, at the time of writing. Even the minimum $10.40 target price implies the shares could jump 14% higher. 

The post Qantas shares are climbing higher again! Time to buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.