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  • Security Law Sends Hong Kong Residents Dashing for the Exit

    Security Law Sends Hong Kong Residents Dashing for the Exit(Bloomberg) — Phyllis Lam has lived in Hong Kong for 42 years. It’s where she was born, went to school, met her husband and planned to raise her two children.But like a growing number of Hongkongers disillusioned by China’s tightening grip on the city, Lam now feels she has little choice but to leave. “I have no confidence in Hong Kong’s future,” she said in an interview. “I have two young kids, so I have to plan for them.”For many in Hong Kong who’ve long feared an erosion of their freedoms under Chinese rule, last week marked a tipping point. Spurred to action by Beijing’s decision to impose controversial national security legislation on the former British colony, residents have been flooding migration consultants with questions on how to move their families overseas.“We get an inquiry every 2 to 3 minutes,” said Gary Leung, chief executive officer of Global Home, a property and migration consultancy. The firm’s client requests have swelled to about 20 times normal levels, with Taiwan and Europe among the most asked-about destinations, Leung said.With many countries still enforcing travel restrictions to fight the coronavirus, it’s too early to gauge how many Hongkongers will ultimately move out. But consultants say the odds of an eventual exodus are growing as lawmakers from the U.K., the U.S. and Taiwan signal they may ease entry requirements for some Hong Kong citizens.A wave of emigration could erode Hong Kong’s attractiveness to multinational companies, hundreds of which rely on local talent to drive their growth across the Greater China region and the rest of Asia. The American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong has warned that retaining top-tier employees in the city may become more difficult.Signs that more Hongkongers are planning to leave have been increasing since last year, when a now-scrapped extradition bill sparked mass protests and violent clashes with police in the heart of the city’s central business district.While Hong Kong doesn’t publish high-frequency immigration statistics, applications for good citizenship cards — which certify a person doesn’t have a criminal record — serve as a proxy because they’re often needed to apply for foreign visas. The monthly number of applications averaged 2,935 from June 2019 to April 2020, a 50% jump versus 2018.It’s not the first time the city has faced the prospect of a brain drain. An estimated 300,000 people left between 1990 and 1994, fearing Hong Kong’s handover to China from Britain would destroy the city’s civil liberties and capitalist system. Yet predictions of Hong Kong’s demise ultimately proved unfounded, with its status as Asia’s premier financial hub only becoming more entrenched over the following two decades.Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam said on Friday that the security law will only target “an extremely small minority of illegal and criminal acts” and that the “life and property, basic rights and freedoms of the overwhelming majority of citizens will be protected.” China’s central government has made similar remarks in the past week.Jolie Lo, an administrative executive, is among Hongkongers who plan to stay. She wants to be close to her aging parents and is wary of the challenges she might face overseas.“I may encounter other problems such as racial discrimination,” said Lo, who has studied in New York and worked in Beijing. “I won’t say I regret my decision to come back to Hong Kong. Since we are here now, we should just try our best to preserve our homes.”Read more: What Are the New Laws China Is Pushing for Hong Kong?Others see emigration as their best option. David Hui, managing director at Centaline Immigration Consultants (HK) Ltd., said his firm is now receiving as many as 100 inquiries a day from Hongkongers interested in moving to countries including Australia, the U.K. and Canada. Taiwan, Malaysia and Portugal are also becoming increasingly popular. “The national security law is definitely a push factor,” Hui said.Critics of China’s Communist Party worry that it will use the law to crack down on dissent and undermine the “one country, two systems” principle that has kept Hong Kong’s judiciary separate from the mainland’s since the 1997 handover. In a survey of 9,477 pro-democracy supporters last week by the Hong Kong Public Opinion Program, 96% said they opposed the law. Among those who said they weren’t pro-democracy, 29% opposed it and 62% supported it.“Now I fear censorship could be even more serious in Hong Kong,” said Ming, 30, who works in the art world and declined to give her surname, citing the sensitivity of the subject. “I don’t see a future here anymore, so it’s time to look for options.”Phyllis Lam and her husband, who are both holders of British National (Overseas) passports, haven’t decided yet where they’ll move. Canada is high on the list, but their top choice is the U.K. The country’s Home Office has said it may open a path to citizenship for almost 3 million Hong Kong residents who have BN(O) status.“In any case, we will send the kids away,” Lam said. “We don’t think the current environment in Hong Kong is good for them.”(Updates links under fifth paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • Why ASX iron ore miners may outperform this morning

    business men digging up dollar sign

    Our market is likely to drop this morning but there’s one group of ASX stocks that are poised to buck the downtrend.

    The futures market is predicting a 0.4% fall in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO) as unbridled  violence in the US, geopolitical tensions with China and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic takes the wind out of our sails.

    The thin silver lining to the global coronavirus outbreak is that it’s pushed the iron ore price to over US$100 a tonne on the weekend.

    Can bulls fly?

    This might be enough to see the BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price, Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) share price and Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) share price jumping higher when the market opens.

    I say “might” because there are doubts that the commodity bull run may be very short lived and that prices could start correcting as soon as next month. I wonder what is the reverse analogy of a “dead cat bounce”? Maybe “bulls growing wings”?

    But the uncertain outlook hasn’t stopped the iron ore benchmark from jumping to US$101.05, according to Bloomberg.

    Why iron ore miners may outperform still

    Our biggest iron ore rival, Brazil, is quickly becoming the epicentre of the COVID-19 crisis as it recorded another surge in new infections.

    This is anticipated to cause major disruption to ore exports from that country with Vale SA downgrading its full year shipment forecast for the commodity in April.

    At the same time, China’s industries are reopening as the country overcomes the pandemic. This is driving up demand for the steel-making ingredient.

    Chinese stimulus

    Chinese leaders have also announced a 3.6 trillion yuan ($760 billion) stimulus package to help pull its economy out of the coronavirus rut.

    While the package was smaller than what the market was hoping for, it will still bolster infrastructure construction – a key driver for iron ore demand.

    The Chinese government said expenditure on investment projects will rise by 22.4 billion yuan this calendar year to 600 billion yuan.

    Is a market correction looming?

    However, this isn’t enough to stop some experts from predicting a downturn in the iron ore price in the second half of 2020 after it hit its highest level since August last year.

    Bloomberg Intelligence expects a 34-million-ton surplus in the second half on higher supply and stagnating demand, compared to a 25-million-ton deficit in the first half.

    Other experts like Credit Suisse have also warned that we are currently in “peak tightness” and that rising output from Brazil and Australia will ease the shortage in July or August.

    Foolish takeaway

    On the other hand, it’s hard to predict what impact the COVID-19 fallout will have on Brazil over the coming weeks or months.

    There’s also the belief that China will inject another round (or three) of stimulus if its economy starts to sputter – whether from the pandemic, the trade war with the US, or both.

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    Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of BHP Billiton Limited and Rio Tinto Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

    The post Why ASX iron ore miners may outperform this morning appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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  • ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: Surging bank shares push ASX toward 6,000

    Wooden block letters spelling out 'recap', ASX 200

    The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has banked yet another week of gains, pushing 4.7% higher last week to end at 5,755.7 points.

    I say ‘banked’ partly because it was the ASX big 4 banks that were the stars of the week (and who doesn’t love a bad pun!). All 4 banks experienced massive buying pressure throughout the week, which helped push the ASX 200 to its highest levels since early March and tantalisingly close to the psychologically-important 6,000 point level.

    Further easing of coronavirus restrictions, as well as positive comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Philip Lowe during the week, bolstered investors’ confidence in the health of the Australian economy. This, in turn, flowed through to ASX 200 shares.

    Banks star in the ASX 200 show

    But perhaps no sector benefitted more than the ASX 200 banks. Generally speaking, the banks are viewed as proxies for the general health of the economy. That’s probably the reason all 4 of the majors saw such a brutal sell-off in March when the extent of the coronavirus pandemic was becoming clear.

    And it’s also likely behind the dramatic shift in sentiment we saw last week.

    The ‘big one’ Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) saw the most muted gains last week, starting off Monday at $58.70 per share before finishing up on Friday at $63.75 – an 8.6% swing.

    Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) faired far better. Westpac shares were languishing at $15.01 on Monday morning but finished up on Friday at $17.22 – banking a 14.72% pop.

    National Australia Bank Ltd. (ASX: NAB) did one better again. It started Monday at $15.34 per share and ended Friday at $17.81 – a 16.1% surge.

    But it was Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ASX: ANZ) which claimed the banking crown and saw a 17.47% rise after starting off Monday at $15.23 per share and finishing on Friday at $17.89.

    The big 4 banks are major constituents of the ASX 200, which means their moves have a heavy impact on the direction of the index as a whole. As such, we can mostly thank the banks for last week’s gains – although they weren’t the only ones popping the champagne.

    How did the markets end the week?

    As discussed, the ASX 200 was a very happy camper last week. It started Monday on 5,497 points and ended up at 5,755.7 points – putting the week’s gains at 4.7% overall.

    Monday saw a healthy 2.2% gain, which was raised by Tuesday’s 2.9% surge. Wednesday saw some consolidation with a 0.1% loss, but then it was back on Thursday with another 1.3% gain.

    By Friday, it was clear investors might have gotten a little too excited, and the ASX 200 fell back 1.6% for the day. But it wasn’t enough to overcome the rampaging bullish sentiment earlier in the week and left the ASX 200 with its hefty 4.7% gain for the week.

    Meanwhile, the All Ordinaries (INDEXASX: XAO) was also on fire, rising from 5,608.8 points to 5,872.2 points to bring home a 4.7% gain for the week.

    Which ASX 200 shares were the biggest winners and losers?

    It’s ‘gossip pages’ time, Foolish style – so let’s see which ASX 200 shares were the week’s biggest winners and losers. As always, let’s start with the losers!

    Worst ASX 200 losers

     % loss for the week
    Technology One Ltd (ASX: TNE)

    7.77%
    Worley Ltd (ASX: WOR)

    7.18%
    Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX: SAR)

    5.37%
    CSL Limited (ASX: CSL)

    5.06%

    Taking out the wooden spoon last week was Technology One, a software company that has been trending steadily lower ever since releasing its half-year results a fortnight ago. It was unfortunate to also see a bearish broker’s recommendation last week, which seemed to add to investors’ concerns.

    Saracen Minerals was another loser. Most ASX 200 gold miners were sold off last week as the price of the yellow metal lost some steam after rallying hard earlier in May. Saracen took the cake with its 5.37% loss though.

    A shoutout has to go to CSL as well, a rare participant in the ASX 200 losers column. CSL shares have been losing steam ever since topping $330 per share back in mid-April. It seems investors have finally realised this company may have been overbought and sent the shares back down closer to earth this week. This is coincidentally getting pretty close to the lows we saw in mid-March.

    Now the losers are out sight and mind, let’s take a look at the ASX 200 stars of the week:

    Best ASX 200 gainers

     % gain for the week
    Southern Cross Media Group Ltd (ASX: SXL)

    71.43%
    Virgin Money UK (ASX: VUK)

    22.45%
    Boral Limited (ASX: BLD)

    21.01%
    Austal Limited (ASX: ASB)

    20.14%

    You would think at least one of the major banks would have made the list this week, but alas!

    Instead, we have Southern Cross Media taking out the top spot. Southern Cross has been in the ASX 200 winners or losers column more times than not over the past 2 months. It seems to be in a love-hate relationship with its investors.

    Southern Cross shares were up an eye-popping 71.43% this week, even though there was no real news out of the company. It seems punters just flicked the ‘risk-on’ switch with this one in a big way.

    Although it’s not one of the big 4, NAB’s old flame Virgin Money UK (formerly Clydesdale Bank) came in second with a 22.45% gain (and that’s after a 10.45% loss on Friday). This stock was one of the most beaten-down banking shares on the ASX during the March trough, so it’s a surprise to see sentiment restored so powerfully.

    The ‘risk-on’ trend can also be seen in the highly cyclical Boral and Austal as well.

    What is this week looking like for the ASX 200?

    It will be very interesting to see if the ASX 200 continues either the negativity we saw on Friday or the positivity we saw earlier last week as we start another 5 days of trading.

    Coronavirus restrictions continue to be lifted across the country, which should provide a base of positive sentiment. We also have an RBA meeting on Tuesday that will determine whether the cash rate stays at 0.25% or is cut to zero. Expect some share market volatility on Tuesday either way!

    On the other hand, we have seen international political tensions continue to rise over the past week, which could put a dampener on ASX 200 bulls. In particular, we have seen rising violence in the United States in recent days as well as continuing tensions between the US, Hong Kong and China.

    Before we go, here’s how the ASX 200 blue chips are looking as we start a new week.

    ASX 200 company

    Trailing P/E ratio

    Last share price

    52-week high

    52-week low
    CSL Limited (ASX: CSL)

    41.55

    $276.22

    $342.75

    $200.37
    Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

    11.57

    $63.75

    $91.05

    $53.44
    Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC)

    12.92

    $17.22

    $30.05

    $13.47
    National Australia Bank Ltd. (ASX: NAB)

    15.98

    $17.81

    $30.00

    $13.20
    Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ASX: ANZ)

    12.18

    $17.89

    $28.95

    $14.10
    Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)

    17.59

    $35.34

    $43.96

    $31.02
    Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES)

    20.94

    $40.37

    $47.42

    $29.75
    BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

    12.41

    $34.64

    $42.33

    $24.05
    Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO)

    12.74

    $93.40

    $107.94

    $72.77
    Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL)

    17.28

    $15.36

    $18.09

    $12.32
    Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS)

    18.69

    $3.24

    $4.01

    $2.87
    Transurban Group (ASX: TCL)

    169.01

    $14.29

    $16.44

    $9.10
    Sydney Airport Holdings Pty Ltd (ASX: SYD)

    32.70

    $5.85

    $9.30

    $4.37
    Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM)

    28.03

    $30.58

    $38.87

    $20.70
    Woodside Petroleum Limited (ASX: WPL)

    41.14

    $22.67

    $37.50

    $14.93
    Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)

    12.94

    $109.97

    $152.35

    $70.45

    And finally, here is the lay of the land for some leading market indicators:

    •     S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) at 5,755.7 points
    •     ALL ORDINARIES (XAO) at 5,872.2 points
    •     Dow Jones Industrial Average at 25,383.11 points
    •     Gold (Spot) swapping hands for US$1,740.25 per troy ounce
    •     Iron ore asking US$99.73 per tonne
    •     Crude oil (Brent) trading at US$37.84 per barrel
    •     Crude oil (WTI) going for US$35.49 per barrel
    •     Australian dollar buying 66.67 US cents
    •    10-year Australian Government bonds yielding 0.90% per annum

    Foolish takeaway

    Last week delivered some startling share price movements, none more so than the big ASX banks. Whether this sentiment holds this week will be a crucial test for the ASX 200, especially considering that elusive 6,000-point threshold is now within sight.

    Keep an eye both on Australia and the rest of the world this week Fools, both spheres have make or break potential over the ASX’s momentum.

    Otherwise, as always, stay safe, stay rational and stay Foolish!

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    Sebastian Bowen owns shares of National Australia Bank Limited, Newcrest Mining Limited, and Telstra Limited. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Austal Limited and CSL Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Macquarie Group Limited and Telstra Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of COLESGROUP DEF SET, Transurban Group, Wesfarmers Limited, and Woolworths Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

    The post ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: Surging bank shares push ASX toward 6,000 appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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