The big four bank stocks make up a foundational piece of many investors’ portfolios. 

They also dominate the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) in terms of market share. 

Combined, they make up almost a quarter of Australia’s benchmark index. 

This means when the big four bank stocks underperform, they have a huge impact on many ASX ETFs that track the domestic market. 

This is exactly what has happened so far in 2026. 

Why have bank stocks underperformed this year?

At the time of writing, in 2026: 

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are down 5% 
• National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares have fallen almost 9%
• Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) is down more than 10%
• ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) have risen 4%. 

These disappointing results have heavily contributed to the underperformance of the broader ASX 200, which is essentially flat year to date. 

Several factors have contributed to these poor returns. 

Firstly, the big four bank stocks came into 2026 with stretched valuations after strong growth in the prior year. 

Additionally, sentiment has shifted to viewing high interest rates as poor for the housing market as mortgage growth deteriorates. 

The big four control more than 70% of Australia’s mortgage market, so weaker housing activity hits the sector disproportionately. 

Home-loan applications have fallen roughly 12–20% across the majors, according to Reuters.

In short, the market is no longer paying the same premium for reliable bank earnings when it sees slower mortgage growth, intense lending competition and rising credit-risk provisions ahead.

Can they rise before 2027?

With three of the big four bank stocks losing ground in 2026, investors might be looking to buy the dip. 

The latest outlook from experts paints a mixed picture for the next 6-12 months. 

On the positive side, UBS recently reaffirmed its buy rating on Westpac shares with a 12-month target of $45.

With Westpac shares currently trading for just under $35 per share, this indicates almost 30% upside. 

It also offers a competitive yield across the big four. 

On ANZ shares, Citi has a buy rating with a $39.25 target. 

This indicates limited upside from its current price hovering around $38. 

CBA shares still appear overpriced according to Shaw and Partners’ James Bills, who recently had a sell rating on Australia’s largest bank. 

Finally, NAB is also receiving poor outlooks from brokers, with Catapult Wealth’s Dylan Evans recently issuing a sell recommendation on the big four bank stock. 

The post Which big 4 bank stock will rise the most before the end of 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has positions in National Australia Bank. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you are hunting for big potential returns, then it could be a good idea to check out the S&P/ASX 200 index (ASX: XJO) share in this article.

That’s because the team at Bell Potter believes that it could smash the market over the next 12 months.

Which ASX 200 share?

The share that Bell Potter is urging investors to buy is Nickel Industries Ltd (ASX: NIC).

It is an Indonesia-focused vertically integrated nickel producer with production assets across nickel ore mining, Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) production, and nickel Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) production. 

Bell Potter notes that low rainfall is impacting its operations. It said:

NIC reported that low rainfall is impacting water supply in Central Sulawesi and interrupting the ramp-up of the 46%-owned Excelsior Nickel Cobalt (ENC) HPAL project. […] Should water supply constraints persist, ENC is expected to run at ~30% of nameplate until water availability normalises. The wet season is late and inherently hard to predict, but normalisation is anticipated by December 2026.

On a positive note, the low rainfall has supported mining and haulage productivity. The broker adds:

Conversely, the dry conditions have supported mining and haulage productivity at the Hengjaya Mine, which achieved 3.1Mwmt of nickel ore sales in July and August, including a record 1.6Mwmt in August 2026. This is tracking ahead of our prior forecast, which we incrementally increase from here, noting the current 14.3Mt RKAB sales permit cap. NIC’s RKEF operations continue unaffected by the water shortage.

Should you invest today?

According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating and $1.45 price target on the ASX 200 share.

Based on its current share price of 80 cents, this implies potential upside of 81% for investors over the next 12 months.

In addition, a very generous 7.7% dividend yield is forecast in FY 2027, followed by a massive 15.5% dividend yield in FY 2028.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:

EPS changes in this report are: CY26: -10%; CY27: 0%; CY28: 0% as we update for a revised production outlook and higher price realisations. NIC is one of the world’s largest listed nickel producers and offers exposure across a range of nickel products and markets. It has a track record of maintaining margins through low nickel prices, benefitting from its diversified product suite and margin exposure across an integrated value chain. We retain our Buy recommendation and TP$1.45/sh.

The post Why this ASX 200 share could rise 80% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• This ASX nickel miner could jump 57%, Macquarie says
• 3 ASX mining shares Bell Potter rates a buy
• Strong profit growth shines in Nickel Industries half-year 2026 earnings

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you are lucky enough to have $20,000 to invest in the share market, then it could be a good idea to consider some exchange traded funds (ETFs).

But which ones could be worth a closer look? Let’s dig deeper into three ASX ETFs that could be top picks. Here’s what they offer:

iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV)

The first ASX ETF to consider is the iShares S&P 500 ETF.

This fund tracks the famous S&P 500 Index, which includes 500 of the largest listed companies in the United States.

That gives investors access to some of the world’s most successful businesses across technology, healthcare, financial services, consumer products, industrials, and other industries.

Among its holdings are the likes of Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT), McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD), and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL).

This could make it a great way to invest across the US market.

Betashares Global Quality Leaders ETF (ASX: QLTY)

Another ASX ETF that could be worth a closer look is the Betashares Global Quality Leaders ETF.

This fund invests in global companies that demonstrate strong quality characteristics.

That includes businesses with high profitability, healthy balance sheets, and relatively stable earnings.

This could be a sensible approach to long-term investing, particularly in the current environment.

Companies with strong financial positions can often keep investing for growth during difficult economic conditions. They may also be better placed to take advantage of opportunities when weaker competitors are struggling.

The Betashares Global Quality Leaders ETF offers exposure to a portfolio of companies selected for these characteristics across developed markets.

It was recently recommended by the team at Betashares.

Betashares Global Cash Flow Kings ETF (ASX: CFLO)

A final ASX ETF to consider for the $20,000 is the Betashares Global Cash Flow Kings ETF.

This fund focuses on global companies that generate strong free cash flow.

Free cash flow is the money a business has left after paying its operating expenses and capital expenditure.

It can be an important indicator of financial strength. Companies generating significant free cash flow have more flexibility to invest in growth, pay dividends, buy back shares, reduce debt, or make acquisitions.

That can be particularly valuable during periods when economic conditions are challenging.

For investors looking to build wealth over the next decade, it could be an attractive way to back companies with strong underlying financial characteristics. It was also recently recommended by analysts at Betashares.

The post Where to invest $20,000 in ASX ETFs today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Do you invest in ASX managed funds? Here’s something I wish I knew 10 years ago
• 4 most popular ASX ETFs revealed: survey
• How to make $26,000 of passive income from ASX shares
• 5 ASX ETFs to buy and hold forever
• What Warren Buffett can teach Australians about superannuation

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Apple, Nvidia, Walmart, and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Apple, Nvidia, and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.