• Is the Fortescue share price under threat from a potential multi-million dollar earnings hit?

    Woman peeking over ledge

    The Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) share price is showing little signs of stress even as the miner faces compensation claims that could cost it hundreds of millions.

    But investors aren’t perturbed by the news that the High Court denied the company special leave to appeal a Federal Court ruling.

    The Fortescue share price is a rare riser on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO). The stock inched up 0.5% to $13.59 during lunch time trade while the top 200 benchmark shed 0.9% of its value.

    The performance of the other major miners was mixed. The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price slipped 0.3% to $35.05 while the Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) share price added 0.6% to $94.16 at the time of writing.

    What the court ruling means

    The High Court defeat means that the earlier ruling that found Fortescue had built the Solomon iron ore mining hub without the permission of traditional owners will stick.

    The traditional owners are represented by the Yindjibarndi Aboriginal Corporation (YAC) and the YAC is now expected to launch a multi-million-dollar compensation claim against Fortescue, reported the Australian Financial Review.

    Big compensation bill

    The court gave YAC exclusive native title rights over 2,700 square kilometres of iron ore-rich land in Western Australia’s Pilbara region.

    The AFR reported that some in the community believe the size of claim should be based on a percentage of Fortescue’s total revenue of about $70 billion over the past decade.

    You can see how even a small percentage can work out to be a big number.

    Why investors aren’t worried

    However, investors may be brushing this new development aside as it’s too early to quantify the impact of YAC’s claim.

    The process might also take years to resolve if it’s dragged through the court system again.

    In any case, the market may have already factored in some level of compensation that Fortescue has to cough up. The miner was backing the breakaway Wirlu-murra Yindjibarndi Aboriginal Corporation.

    Further, the miner has previously downplayed the significance of any payout and said that the case does not affect its mining tenure rights or current operations.

    Foolish takeaway

    The Fortescue share price outperformed right through the COVID-19 market meltdown as its earnings and generous dividend handouts are resilient to the deep recession.

    Such defensive qualities are hard to find in the current environment. This explains why the stock jumped 28% since the start of the year when the ASX 200 fell 13%.

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    Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of BHP Billiton Limited and Rio Tinto Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

    The post Is the Fortescue share price under threat from a potential multi-million dollar earnings hit? appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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  • If you invested $10,000 in the a2 Milk Company ASX listing, this is how much you’d have now

    High

    This month I’ve been looking at how investments in the IPOs of a number of popular ASX shares have fared.

    This includes the likes of Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) and CSL Limited (ASX: CSL). You can read about those IPOs here and here.

    Today I thought I would turn my attention to New Zealand-based infant formula and fresh milk company A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M).

    How has a2 Milk Company performed since its ASX listing?

    Technically speaking, a2 Milk Company didn’t list on the Australian share market through an IPO.

    It first listed on the New Zealand stock exchange all the way back in 2004. The company then sought a dual listing on the Australian share market in March 2015.

    The ASX listing didn’t impact its New Zealand listing, nor did it involve the raising of any new capital.

    Once its shares were listed on the ASX, you could have picked them up for 56 cents apiece. This means that a $10,000 investment in its shares would have given you a total of 17,857 shares.

    Since then a lot has changed. For a long time the company was playing catch up with rival Bellamy’s and seen as just a small time player in the industry. It’s also interesting to note that its operations were loss-making, much like those of Bubs Australia Ltd (ASX: BUB) today.

    Today it is the largest ANZ infant formula brand and has a growing fresh milk footprint both here and in the United States.

    It has also transformed from being a loss-making entity into one of the most profitable companies on the Australian share market.

    The upper end of the company’s guidance for FY 2020 implies revenue of NZ$1,750 million and earnings before interest tax, depreciation, and amortisation of NZ$560 million. This represents a sizeable 34.1% and 35.4% increase, respectively, on the prior year.

    Unsurprisingly, given this explosive growth in its earnings since 2015, its shares have been exceptionally strong performers.

    Today’s the a2 Milk Company share price is changing hands for $17.64. Which means that the 17,857 shares you picked up in 2015 would now be worth a total of $315,000.

    I think that is a pretty incredible return over a period of just over five years. But perhaps what is even better is that a2 Milk Company’s growth is far from over.

    Given the modest market share its infant formula has in the China market and its expanding fresh milk footprint, I believe it is well-positioned to continue its strong earnings growth for a long time to come.

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    James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of BUBS AUST FPO and CSL Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of A2 Milk and AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BUBS AUST FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

    The post If you invested $10,000 in the a2 Milk Company ASX listing, this is how much you’d have now appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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  • Are Coles shares a buy after falling 12% in 2 months?

    Buy stocks

    Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares haven’t been having a good time of late.

    Since 19 March 2020, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: JXO) has risen an extraordinary 21%. Over the same period, the Coles share price has fallen more than 12% from above $17 to where they sit today (at the time of writing) at $15.02.

    Of course, from a year-to-date perspective, it’s a bit of a different story. Since the dawn of 2020 (which feels like a lifetime ago), the ASX 200 is still down 13.4%, whilst Coles shares have essentially been flat.

    So what’s going on here? And more importantly, for investors, is the Coles share price a buy today?

    Hot Coles or not?

    The first thing to note is that Coles’ former parent company has been selling Coles shares like there’s no tomorrow. At the start of 2020, Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) owned a 15% stake in Coles – leftover from the demerger that occurred back in November 2018 (at around $12.80 a share).

    Fast forward to today, and Wesfarmers has trimmed back its remaining stake in Coles to around 5%. Yes, Wesfarmers sold a ~5% chunk of its Coles stake in February this year, followed by another ~5% tranche in late March.

    With Wesfarmers seeing no value in Coles, should investors take the hint?

    These transactions don’t merit too much thought, in my view. Yes, Wesfarmers probably doesn’t see too much meaningful growth in Coles’ future. But that’s understandable, seeing as Coles is a very mature business with almost complete market saturation.

    It was also an easy avenue for Wesfarmers to raise cash, seeing as the Coles share price held up extraordinarily well in the market crash we saw in March. And Wesfarmers is the kind of company that’s always looking for new pathways to invest down.

    Are Coles shares a buy right now?

    So here’s how I see Coles shares today: a defensive, mature company with a reasonably safe dividend. Nothing more, nothing less.

    For investors who prioritise ASX dividend income, Coles remains a great option in my view. On current prices, Coles shares are offering a 2.78% dividend yield, which comes with full franking credits (giving it a grossed-up yield of 3.97%). If you identify with these goals, the Coles share price is in the buy zone right now, in my view.

    But if you’re looking to substantially grow your wealth over years or even decades, Coles is probably not the best bet to make. There are a plethora of ASX shares out there that offer better growth prospects, so perhaps your cash is better served in something else.

    Something like the five shares named below, for example!

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    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of COLESGROUP DEF SET and Wesfarmers Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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